GDP and the Economy
Advance Estimates for the First Quarter of 2024
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.
The increase in first-quarter real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2
- The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods.
- Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care (both outpatient and hospital services) and financial services and insurance (led by financial service charges, fees, and commissions).
- Within goods, the decrease was led by motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks) and gasoline and other energy goods.
- Within residential fixed investment, the increase was led by brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs and new single-family construction.
- The increase in nonresidential fixed investment was led by an increase in intellectual property products (notably, prepackaged software).
- The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees.
- Within exports, both goods and services increased. The leading contributor to the increase in goods was foods, feeds, and beverages. Within services, the increase was led by travel.
- The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing.
- The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending that was partly offset by an increase in nondefense spending. The leading contributor to the decrease in defense spending was gross investment in equipment (mainly aircraft). Within nondefense spending, the increase was led by investment in research and development.
- Within imports, both goods and services increased. The leading contributors to the increase in goods were capital goods, except automotive; industrial supplies and materials; and consumer goods, except food and automotive. Within services, the increase was led by travel.
Compared to the fourth quarter, real GDP decelerated in the first quarter, reflecting decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which measures private demand in the domestic economy and is derived as the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment, increased 3.1 percent in the first quarter, compared to an increase of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter.
| Line | Series | Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) |
Change from preceding period (percent) |
Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | ||
| 1 | GDP1 | 100.0 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 2 | Personal consumption expenditures | 67.9 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.55 | 2.11 | 2.20 | 1.68 |
| 3 | Goods | 22.1 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 3.0 | −0.4 | 0.11 | 1.09 | 0.67 | −0.09 |
| 4 | Durable goods | 7.8 | −0.3 | 6.7 | 3.2 | −1.2 | −0.03 | 0.53 | 0.25 | −0.09 |
| 5 | Nondurable goods | 14.3 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.14 | 0.56 | 0.41 | 0.00 |
| 6 | Services | 45.8 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 0.44 | 1.02 | 1.54 | 1.78 |
| 7 | Gross private domestic investment | 17.7 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 0.90 | 1.74 | 0.15 | 0.56 |
| 8 | Fixed investment | 17.5 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 0.90 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 0.91 |
| 9 | Nonresidential | 13.5 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.98 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| 10 | Structures | 3.1 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | −0.1 | 0.46 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.00 |
| 11 | Equipment | 5.0 | 7.7 | −4.4 | −1.1 | 2.1 | 0.38 | −0.22 | −0.05 | 0.10 |
| 12 | Intellectual property products | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| 13 | Residential | 4.0 | −2.2 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 13.9 | −0.09 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.52 |
| 14 | Change in private inventories | 0.2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 0.00 | 1.27 | −0.47 | −0.35 |
| 15 | Net exports of goods and services | −3.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.25 | −0.86 |
| 16 | Exports | 10.9 | −9.3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 0.9 | −1.09 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| 17 | Goods | 7.2 | −16.0 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 0.9 | −1.31 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.06 |
| 18 | Services | 3.6 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| 19 | Imports | 13.9 | −7.6 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 7.2 | 1.13 | −0.56 | −0.30 | −0.96 |
| 20 | Goods | 11.3 | −6.5 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 6.8 | 0.78 | −0.64 | −0.14 | −0.74 |
| 21 | Services | 2.6 | −12.2 | −2.8 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 0.35 | 0.08 | −0.15 | −0.22 |
| 22 | Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | 17.4 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.57 | 0.99 | 0.79 | 0.21 |
| 23 | Federal | 6.5 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 2.4 | −0.2 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.15 | −0.01 |
| 24 | National defense | 3.6 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 0.5 | −0.6 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 0.02 | −0.02 |
| 25 | Nondefense | 2.9 | −0.4 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 0.3 | −0.01 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| 26 | State and local | 10.9 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 0.22 |
| Addenda: | ||||||||||
| 27 | GDI2 | --- | 0.5 | 1.9 | 4.8 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 28 | Average of GDP and GDI | --- | 1.3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 29 | Final sales of domestic product | --- | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 | Goods | 30.7 | 0.9 | 7.3 | 2.6 | −2.4 | 0.29 | 2.30 | 0.83 | −0.73 |
| 31 | Services | 60.5 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.13 | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.77 |
| 32 | Structures | 8.8 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.55 |
- GDI
- Gross domestic income
- GDP
- Gross domestic product
- The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
- GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) featured measure of inflation for the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 3.1 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter (table 2 and chart 3).
Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter. Prices for energy goods and services decreased 1.1 percent after decreasing 2.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 3.2 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for services that was partly offset by a decrease in prices for goods.
- Within services, price increases were widespread. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (led by housing), financial services and insurance (mainly banking and other financial services), and health care (led by hospitals).
- Within goods, the leading contributor to the decrease was gasoline and other energy goods (led by motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids).
Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 3.7 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter.
| Line | Series | Change from preceding period (percent) |
Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices (percentage points) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | ||
| 1 | Gross domestic purchases1 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 |
| 2 | Personal consumption expenditures | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 1.63 | 1.71 | 1.18 | 2.23 |
| 3 | Goods | 0.2 | 0.9 | −1.4 | −0.5 | 0.05 | 0.20 | −0.31 | −0.11 |
| 4 | Durable goods | 0.1 | −4.4 | −3.5 | −0.5 | 0.01 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.03 |
| 5 | Nondurable goods | 0.3 | 3.9 | −0.2 | −0.6 | 0.04 | 0.55 | −0.03 | −0.08 |
| 6 | Services | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 1.58 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 2.34 |
| 7 | Gross private domestic investment | −0.1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | −0.02 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| 8 | Fixed investment | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | −0.01 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| 9 | Nonresidential | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| 10 | Structures | 0.9 | −2.3 | 2.1 | −0.3 | 0.03 | −0.07 | 0.06 | −0.01 |
| 11 | Equipment | −1.1 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 3.9 | −0.06 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| 12 | Intellectual property products | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| 13 | Residential | −0.9 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 0.6 | −0.03 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| 14 | Change in private inventories | --- | --- | --- | --- | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 |
| 15 | Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | −1.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 3.8 | −0.18 | 0.84 | 0.32 | 0.64 |
| 16 | Federal | 2.1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| 17 | National defense | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| 18 | Nondefense | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| 19 | State and local | −2.9 | 5.7 | 0.6 | 3.6 | −0.31 | 0.59 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| Addenda: | |||||||||
| Gross domestic purchases: | |||||||||
| 20 | Food | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| 21 | Energy goods and services | −15.6 | 16.1 | −2.9 | −1.1 | −0.46 | 0.42 | −0.08 | −0.03 |
| 22 | Excluding food and energy | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.90 | 2.34 | 1.90 | 2.98 |
| Personal consumption expenditures: | |||||||||
| 23 | Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 24 | Energy goods and services | −15.6 | 16.2 | −3.2 | −1.2 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25 | Excluding food and energy | 3.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 26 | Gross domestic product | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 27 | Exports of goods and services | −3.9 | 4.0 | −2.2 | 3.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 28 | Imports of goods and services | −4.8 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
- The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.
Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $407.1 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $230.2 billion in the fourth quarter (table 3). The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation and personal current transfer receipts.
Personal current taxes increased $180.9 billion in the first quarter after increasing $39.8 billion in the fourth quarter.
Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased $226.2 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the first quarter after increasing $190.4 billion, or 3.8 percent, in the fourth quarter. Personal outlays increased $286.0 billion after increasing $238.8 billion.
Real DPI (chart 4) increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter. Current-dollar DPI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for consumer spending, which increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
The personal saving rate (chart 5)—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter.
| Line | Series | Level | Change from preceding period | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||
| Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | ||
| 1 | Personal income | 23,315.9 | 23,722.9 | 224.1 | 217.7 | 230.2 | 407.1 |
| 2 | Compensation of employees | 14,526.1 | 14,750.7 | 188.9 | 214.6 | 157.4 | 224.6 |
| 3 | Wages and salaries | 12,049.0 | 12,238.2 | 167.8 | 184.2 | 131.5 | 189.2 |
| 4 | Private industries | 10,261.6 | 10,412.8 | 142.7 | 141.8 | 97.4 | 151.2 |
| 5 | Goods-producing industries | 1,891.2 | 1,917.9 | 27.6 | 30.0 | 23.8 | 26.7 |
| 6 | Manufacturing | 1,113.8 | 1,126.3 | 14.6 | 20.8 | 11.2 | 12.5 |
| 7 | Services-producing industries | 8,370.4 | 8,494.9 | 115.2 | 111.8 | 73.7 | 124.5 |
| 8 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 1,839.3 | 1,861.7 | 8.3 | 28.9 | 12.0 | 22.4 |
| 9 | Other services-producing industries | 6,531.1 | 6,633.1 | 106.9 | 83.0 | 61.7 | 102.1 |
| 10 | Government | 1,787.4 | 1,825.4 | 25.1 | 42.4 | 34.1 | 38.0 |
| 11 | Supplements to wages and salaries | 2,477.1 | 2,512.5 | 21.1 | 30.4 | 25.9 | 35.4 |
| 12 | Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj | 1,882.6 | 1,892.3 | −3.3 | 35.5 | 23.1 | 9.7 |
| 13 | Farm | 38.0 | 37.2 | −13.0 | −8.3 | −11.9 | −0.8 |
| 14 | Nonfarm | 1,844.6 | 1,855.1 | 9.7 | 43.7 | 35.0 | 10.4 |
| 15 | Rental income of persons with CCAdj | 988.1 | 1,024.5 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 36.4 |
| 16 | Personal income receipts on assets | 3,667.3 | 3,706.0 | 25.6 | 3.9 | 60.8 | 38.7 |
| 17 | Personal interest income | 1,815.6 | 1,821.5 | 10.4 | 21.6 | 39.2 | 5.9 |
| 18 | Personal dividend income | 1,851.7 | 1,884.5 | 15.2 | −17.6 | 21.6 | 32.7 |
| 19 | Personal current transfer receipts | 4,086.8 | 4,225.9 | 17.7 | −26.5 | −6.9 | 139.2 |
| 20 | Government social benefits to persons | 3,979.2 | 4,112.1 | 15.8 | −29.5 | −8.5 | 132.9 |
| 21 | Social security | 1,374.2 | 1,424.8 | 13.8 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 50.6 |
| 22 | Medicare | 951.3 | 960.7 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 9.4 |
| 23 | Medicaid | 868.3 | 900.3 | 39.9 | −30.8 | −12.3 | 32.0 |
| 24 | Unemployment insurance | 22.7 | 22.8 | 0.3 | −1.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 25 | Veterans' benefits | 173.6 | 174.7 | −0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| 26 | Other | 589.1 | 628.8 | −41.7 | −9.6 | −16.7 | 39.8 |
| 27 | Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) | 107.5 | 113.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 6.3 |
| 28 | Less: Contributions for government social insurance | 1,835.1 | 1,876.5 | 20.1 | 23.2 | 18.0 | 41.4 |
| 29 | Less: Personal current taxes | 2,805.1 | 2,986.0 | −59.8 | 61.5 | 39.8 | 180.9 |
| 30 | Equals: Disposable personal income | 20,510.8 | 20,737.0 | 284.0 | 156.2 | 190.4 | 226.2 |
| 31 | Less: Personal outlays | 19,695.3 | 19,981.3 | 204.6 | 319.9 | 238.8 | 286.0 |
| 32 | Personal consumption expenditures | 18,914.5 | 19,191.6 | 149.4 | 260.5 | 235.0 | 277.1 |
| 33 | Personal interest payments1 | 531.7 | 537.8 | 54.9 | 55.9 | 1.1 | 6.1 |
| 34 | Personal current transfer payments | 249.1 | 251.9 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 35 | Equals: Personal saving | 815.5 | 755.7 | 79.3 | −163.7 | −48.4 | −59.8 |
| 36 | Personal saving as a percentage of DPI | 4.0 | 3.6 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
- CCAdj
- Capital consumption adjustment
- DPI
- Disposable personal income
- IVA
- Inventory valuation adjustment
- Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons.
- “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
- In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”
