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Technical Note
The tables in this note are available in an XLS spreadsheet, and the entire note is available in PDF format.
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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
First Quarter of 2005 (Preliminary)
May 26, 2005
This technical note provides background information about the source
data and estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented
in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for the first
quarter is available on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov; a brief
summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few weeks,
the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of
Current Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("The
Business Situation").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP growth in the first quarter was revised from 3.1 percent to 3.5
percent. A downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, was partly offset by a downward revision to
inventory investment.
. Imports were revised down, reflecting newly available Census
Bureau data on goods for March.
. Inventory investment was revised down, mainly reflecting newly
available Census Bureau data on wholesale trade, nondurable
goods manufacturing, and retail trade inventories for March and
revised data for February.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Related Series
In addition to presenting preliminary estimates for the first quarter,
today's news release also presents revised fourth-quarter estimates of
wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government
social insurance that incorporate Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulations
of preliminary data from the quarterly census of employment and
wages.
Wage and salary disbursements are now estimated to have increased
$135.8 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $71.0 billion.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased
10.8 percent in the fourth quarter, revised up from 8.3 percent, and to
have decreased 1.2 percent in the first quarter, revised from a decrease
of 0.3 percent.
Corporate Profits
Profits from current production increased $57.5 billion, or 4.5 percent, in
the first quarter, compared with $150.8 billion, or 13.5 percent, in the
fourth. Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory
valuation and capital consumption adjustments) is BEA's featured
measure of corporate profits.
Profits before tax (without inventory valuation and capital consumption
adjustments) increased $250.0 billion in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of $125.1 billion in the fourth. The capital consumption and
inventory valuation adjustments convert depreciation of fixed assets and
inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to
the current-cost measures used in the national income and product
accounts. The capital consumption adjustment decreased $200.8 billion
in the first quarter (from $260.0 billion to $59.2 billion), in contrast to an
increase of $37.0 billion in the fourth. The large decrease in the first-
quarter capital consumption adjustment reflects the expiration of the
"bonus" depreciation provisions of both the Job Creation and Worker
Assistance Act of 2002 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
Reconciliation Act of 2003. These bonus depreciation provisions do not
affect the estimate of profits from current production.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A.--SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2005
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of
2005. For these key series, actual data for March were not available in time for inclusion in the
advance GDP estimate released on April 28, 2005, and BEA made assumptions for these source
data. The numbers in brackets show the March values that had been assumed for the advance
estimate. For most series, the data incorporated for February and, in some cases, for January,
were preliminary, and the numbers shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2004 2005
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new total private
construction put in place less
residential (inc. improvements)... 228.0 227.9 228.5 230.9 227.7 230.3
{231.5} {228.7} {230.1}
Equipment and software:
2 Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft................ 29.9 20.6 30.7 27.2 19.3 24.7
{19.3} {26.2}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3 Single family..................... 380.3 381.4 386.1 391.0 397.9 400.1
{390.2} {395.9} {394.6}
4 Multifamily....................... 39.0 40.6 41.3 42.2 42.2 42.8
{41.9} {41.8} {41.6}
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable 23.1 23.9 -3.0 29.8 9.7 17.5
manufacturing...................... {12.1} {23.2}
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment... 63.6 80.1 54.1 58.8 48.4 35.6
{40.9} {66.3}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactions-
accounts basis................. 831.8 817.3 853.6 853.3 853.1 865.0
{854.1} {867.0}
6a Excluding gold.................... 826.6 812.7 848.6 847.5 848.9 858.5
{849.8} {862.8}
Imports of goods:
7 U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactions-
accounts basis................. 1554.3 1579.0 1571.9 1602.9 1628.4 1578.1
{1630.9} {1648.7}
7a Excluding gold................... 1549.4 1575.0 1566.4 1599.3 1624.5 1573.9
{1627.1} {1645.0}
8 Net exports of goods................. -722.5 -761.7 -718.3 -749.6 -775.3 -713.1
{-776.8} {-781.7}
8a Excluding gold................... -722.7 -762.2 -717.8 -751.9 -775.6 -715.5
{-777.2} {-782.2}
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9 Value of new construction put
in place..................... 215.9 218.3 217.9 216.7 218.3 219.4
{220.4} {222.5} {221.4}
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