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Technical Note
The tables in this note are available in an XLS spreadsheet, and the entire note is available in PDF format.
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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2004 (Advance)
January 28, 2005
This technical note provides background information about the source
data and estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented
in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for the fourth
quarter is available on BEA's Web site <www.bea.gov>; a brief
summary of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few weeks,
the estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of
Current Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("The
Business Situation").
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The advance GDP estimate for the fourth quarter of 2004 is based on
source data that are incomplete and subject to revision. Three months
of source data were available for consumer spending on goods;
shipments of capital equipment other than aircraft; motor vehicle sales
and inventories; manufacturing durables inventories; federal
government outlays; and consumer, producer, and international prices.
Only two months of data were available for most other key data
sources; BEA's assumptions for the third month are shown in table A.
The following assumptions were made for the third month of the quarter:
. an increase in nondurable manufacturing inventories,
. an increase in non-motor-vehicle merchant wholesale and retail
inventories,
. an increase in exports of goods, excluding gold, and
. a decrease in imports of goods, excluding gold.
The Microsoft Special Dividend
On December 2, 2004, the Microsoft Corporation paid its shareholders
a special dividend of $3.00 per share; the total payout was about $32
billion. The special dividend payment affects the fourth-quarter estimate
of personal income that were released today, and will also affect the
estimates of corporate profits, national income, and government current
receipts that will be released on March 30. Within personal income,
personal dividend income was boosted by $99.4 billion (annual rate) in
the fourth quarter. GDP is not affected because dividend payments do
not represent goods and services from current production. For further
information, see the FAQs on the Microsoft special dividend on BEA's
Web site: <www.bea.gov>.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
Table A. KEY ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE ADVANCE ESTIMATE OF GDP
FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2004
For many of the key series used to prepare the advance estimate of GDP, including retail sales, unit
automobile and truck sales and inventories, manufacturers' shipments of nondefense capital goods (other
than aircraft), manufacturer's inventories of durable goods, federal defense spending, and consumer,
producer, and international price indexes, actual data are available for all months of the quarter.
For the key series shown in this table, actual data for the third month of the quarter usually are not available
in time for inclusion in the advance GDP estimate. BEA makes assumptions for the source data that are
not yet available; assumptions for December 2004 are shown in the last column of the table. For most
series shown, the data for November are preliminary and subject to further revision. Occasionally, the data
for earlier months are also subject to revision.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2004
Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.*
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new total private
construction put in place less
residential (inc. improvements)... 223.8 224.3 224.9 225.0 222.3 223.6
Equipment and software:
2 Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft................. 22.2 28.9 27.4 29.9 20.6 23.3
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3 Single family..................... 371.9 380.3 378.9 378.9 376.1 380.0
4 Multifamily....................... 39.8 39.2 39.1 38.8 38.9 39.3
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing.................... 16.6 12.1 -5.9 23.1 14.8 12.0
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment.. 49.6 50.9 30.4 67.0 74.6 37.2
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactions-
accounts basis...................... 809.5 816.1 829.7 830.2 798.6 813.1
6a Excluding gold...................... 804.9 812.2 823.4 825.0 794.0 809.0
Imports of goods:
7 U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactions-
accounts basis...................... 1466.7 1499.9 1489.5 1551.5 1568.1 1558.6
7a Excluding gold...................... 1462.3 1496.5 1485.2 1546.6 1564.0 1554.5
8 Net exports of goods................. -657.1 -683.8 -659.8 -721.4 -769.5 -745.5
8a Excluding gold...................... -657.5 -684.3 -661.8 -721.6 -770.0 -745.5
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9 Value of new construction put
in place........................... 220.3 213.1 214.1 218.2 218.7 218.5
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*Assumption.
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