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Technical Note
The tables in this note are available in an XLS spreadsheet, and the entire note is available in PDF format.
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Technical Note
Gross Domestic Product
Fourth Quarter of 2004 (Preliminary)
February 25, 2005
This technical note provides background information about the source
data and estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented
in the GDP news release. The complete set of estimates for the fourth
quarter is available on BEA's Web site www.bea.gov; a brief summary
of "highlights" is also posted on the Web site. In a few weeks, the
estimates will be published in BEA's monthly journal, the Survey of Current
Business, along with a more detailed analysis of the estimates ("The
Business Situation").
Sources of Revision to Real GDP
Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was revised from 3.1 percent to
3.8 percent. Upward revisions to exports, to business investment in
plant, equipment, and software, and to inventory investment were partly
offset by a downward revision to consumer spending and an upward
revision to imports.
. Both exports and imports were revised up, mainly reflecting newly
available Census Bureau data on goods for December and
revised data for November.
. Nonresidential fixed investment was revised up, reflecting newly
available Census Bureau data on value of construction put in
place for December and revised data for October and November,
newly available trade source data on truck registration for
December and revised data for October and November, and
newly available Census Bureau data on aircraft shipments for
December.
. Inventory investment was revised up, primarily reflecting newly
available Census Bureau data on inventories for December and
revised data for November.
. The downward revision to personal consumption expenditures
was mostly to motor vehicles, primarily reflecting the newly
available and revised truck registration data.
The Microsoft Special Dividend
During the fourth quarter the Microsoft Corporation paid its shareholders
a special dividend of $3.00 per share. Personal income was boosted by
$99.4 billion (annual rate) in the fourth quarter; GDP was not affected.
For further information, see the FAQs on the Microsoft special dividend
on BEA's Web site: www.bea.gov.
Revisions to Wages and Salaries and Related Series
In addition to presenting preliminary estimates for the fourth quarter,
today's news release also presents revised third-quarter estimates of
wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government
social insurance that incorporate Bureau of Labor Statistics tabulations
of preliminary data from the quarterly census of employment and
wages.
Wage and salary disbursements are now estimated to have increased
$90.2 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $28.0 billion.
Real disposable personal income is now estimated to have increased
2.9 percent in the third quarter, revised up from 2.0 percent, and to have
increased 8.1 percent in the fourth quarter, revised down from 8.4
percent.
Brent R. Moulton
Associate Director for National Economic Accounts
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(202) 606-9606
February 25, 2005
Table A. SOURCE DATA FOR THE ADVANCE AND PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2004
This table shows the actual data used for the preliminary estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2004.
For these key series actual data for December were not available in time for inclusion in the advance GDP
estimate released on January 28, 2005, and BEA made assumptions for these source data. The numbers
in brackets show the December values that had been assumed for the advance estimate. For most series,
the data incorporated for November and, in some cases, for October were preliminary, and the numbers
shown in brackets are the values used last month.
All series shown in the table are in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates, and are
published by the Bureau of the Census.
2004
Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
Private fixed investment:
Nonresidential structures:
1 Value of new total private
construction put in place less
residential (inc. improvements)... 223.8 224.3 224.9 228.0 226.5 229.2
{225.0} {222.3} {223.6}
Equipment and software:
2 Manufacturers' shipments of
complete aircraft..................... 22.2 28.9 27.4 29.9 20.6 30.7
{20.6} {23.3}
Residential structures:
Value of new residential
construction put in place:
3 Single family........................ 371.9 380.3 378.9 380.3 378.9 380.2
{378.9} {376.1} {380.0}
4 Multifamily.......................... 39.8 39.2 39.1 39.0 39.5 40.7
{38.8} {38.9} {39.3}
Change in private inventories:
5 Change in inventories for nondurable
manufacturing...................... 16.6 12.1 -5.9 23.1 23.9 -0.3
{14.8} {12.0}
5a Change in inventories for merchant
wholesale and retail industries other
than motor vehicles and equipment.. 49.6 50.9 30.4 67.0 85.6 56.1
{74.6} {37.2}
Net exports:
Exports of goods:
6 U.S. exports of goods,
international-transactions-
accounts basis....................... 811.2 817.7 831.3 831.8 817.3 853.3
{798.6} {813.1}
6a Excluding gold................... 806.5 813.8 825.0 826.6 812.7 848.3
{794.0} {809.0}
Imports of goods:
7 U.S. imports of goods,
international-transactions-
accounts basis....................... 1469.4 1502.7 1492.2 1554.3 1579.0 1580.0
{1568.1} {1558.6}
7a Excluding gold................... 1465.1 1499.3 1488.0 1549.4 1575.0 1574.5
{1564.0} {1554.5}
8 Net exports of goods................... -658.3 -684.9 -661.0 -722.5 -761.7 -726.7
{-769.5} {-745.5}
8a Excluding gold................. -658.6 -685.5 -663.0 -722.7 -762.2 -726.2
{-770.0} {-745.5}
Government:
State and local:
Structures:
9 Value of new construction put
in place.............................. 220.3 213.1 214.1 215.9 220.2 223.4
{218.2} {218.7} {218.5}
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