Regional Quarterly Report: GDP, personal income, and more.

State personal income for 2017

State personal income growth accelerated in 42 states, including the four largest states—California, Florida, New York, and Texas—in 2017.1 State personal income grew 4.4 percent on average in 2017, up from 2.6 percent in 2016 (table A). Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, accelerated to 1.8 percent in 2017 from 1.1 percent in 2016. Across all states, personal income growth rates in 2017 ranged from −0.7 percent in North Dakota to 6.1 percent in Washington (table A).

These statistics reflect the initial results of the latest comprehensive update of the quarterly and annual state personal income statistics, released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on September 25, 2018; the results of the previous comprehensive update were released in September 2013. For more information, see the section “Updates to State Personal Income.”

Compensation of employees, the largest component of personal income, grew 4.5 percent on average in 2017, up from 2.7 percent in 2016.2 Growth was strongest in the states of Washington (6.8 percent), Idaho (6.6 percent), Colorado (6.0 percent), and California (6.0 percent). In all four states, growth accelerated from 2016. Growth was slowest in Alaska (less than 0.1 percent),3 Connecticut (1.6 percent), and Louisiana (2.0 percent).

Proprietors’ income, which represents the income earned from current production by unincorporated businesses that is received by persons, rose 5.7 percent for the United States in 2017 after falling 0.3 percent in 2016. Farm proprietors’ income continued to fall in 2017 in the farm belt (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota). Farm proprietors’ income fell $3.2 billion in these six states but rose $0.2 billion nationally (table B). Nonfarm proprietors’ income for the United States rose 5.8 percent in 2017, with the largest increases in Oklahoma (24.8 percent) and Nevada (19.6 percent). In Oklahoma, nonfarm proprietors’ income contributed more to personal income growth ($4.7 billion) than any other component, while in North Dakota, the declines in nonfarm and farm proprietors’ income ($1.232 billion) more than accounted for the state’s personal income decline (table C).

Property income (dividends, interest, and rent) increased 4.7 percent in 2017 after increasing 2.8 percent in 2016. Personal dividend income rose 3.1 percent, personal interest income rose 5.7 percent, and the rental income of persons increased 5.1 percent. All the growth in rental income was accounted for by imputed net rental income of owner-occupied housing; monetary rent fell 0.7 percent in 2017 (table D).

Personal current transfer receipts, which consist primarily of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits, grew 2.9 percent on average in 2017, down from 3.5 percent in 2016. Growth was fastest in New York, where transfer receipts grew 10.1 percent. Medical benefits accounted for almost all the increase in New York. Transfer receipts grew 4.6 percent in Alaska and was the component that contributed more than any other ($308 million) to personal income growth in the state (table C). In contrast, transfer receipts declined 1.1 percent in California, as medical benefits, income maintenance benefits, and unemployment insurance compensation all declined.

Contributions for government social insurance, a subtraction in the derivation of personal income, grew 4.7 percent in 2017 after rising 2.9 percent in 2016. The largest increases in contributions for government social insurance in 2017 were 7.5 percent each in Oregon, Utah, and Washington. The smallest increase was in Alaska (1.0 percent), reflecting the lack of growth in compensation in that state.

New York’s personal income growth (which is adjusted to a place-of-residence basis) was $9.2 billion lower than on a place-of-work basis in 2017 (table C). At the same time, New Jersey’s personal income growth was $5.5 billion higher and Connecticut’s was $3.2 billion higher than by place of work. The residence adjustment contributed more than any other component to Connecticut’s personal income growth in 2017.

On September 25, 2018, BEA released the initial results of its latest comprehensive update of the quarterly and annual state personal income statistics; the results of the previous comprehensive update were released in September 2013.

The first installment of the 2018 update consists of new and updated statistics for the years and quarters covered by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), that is, from the first quarter of 1998 through the second quarter of 2018. Additional updates, covering the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) estimates for 1929–2001 (for the annual estimates) and covering the first quarter of 1948 through the fourth quarter of 2001 (for the quarterly statistics), are scheduled to be released in early 2019.

Comprehensive updates, which are conducted usually every 5 years, adopt various changes in definitions, classifications, statistical methods, and concepts that make the BEA economic accounts more informative and more accurately portray the evolution of the national and state economies.

Comprehensive updates also incorporate newly available and revised state source data that are more complete and more detailed than those previously available (table E). Especially noteworthy is the introduction of journey-to-work data from the American Community Survey 2011–2015 5-year file and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) data for domestic deposits at commercial banks.

The state personal income comprehensive update incorporated some of the changes that were adopted as part of the comprehensive update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which was released in July 2018.4 A detailed preview of the major changes to the state accounts was published in the August 2018 Survey of Current Business.5 The changes included the following:

Annual state personal income

  • For compensation of state and local government employees, the treatment of the defined benefit pension component is now harmonized with federal government employees (1) by measuring employer contributions to state and local pension plans using the same actuarial measure used for federal plans and (2) by introducing new state-level source data for pension service charges.6
  • For state personal interest income, estimates of the imputed value of depositors’ services received by persons are now based on state-level deposits data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.7
  • For workers’ compensation (a component of personal current transfer receipts), place-of-work source data are now converted to a place-of-residence basis using state-level employment outflow ratios.
  • For nonfarm proprietors’ income, the net income of tax-exempt rural telephone cooperatives is now classified in the telecommunications industry.
  • For personal current taxes, Nevada’s Modified Business Tax and New York’s Metropolitan Commuter Transportation Mobility Tax are now classified as payroll taxes.

Quarterly state personal income

  • For state unemployment insurance compensation, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program is now used as the indicator series in the distribution of annual estimates to quarters.
  • For wages and salaries of federal government military and civilian employees, seasonal adjustment now removes the level increase in the first quarter of the year caused by the pay raises that these employees often receive in January.

The picture of personal income that is shown by the revised estimates is little changed from the picture shown by the previous estimates for most states, especially for the earlier years:

  • The annual revisions to state personal income varied between −1.9 percent and 1.6 percent in 1998–2007. For the United States, the revisions ranged from −0.2 percent to 0.2 percent.
  • The annual revisions were larger and ranged from −4.0 percent to 3.1 percent in 2008–2016 (table F). For the United States, the revisions ranged from −0.4 percent to 1.3 percent. Some of the largest upward revisions were to the District of Columbia and largely reflected the introduction of the new journey-to-work source data in the residence adjustment. North Dakota had the largest downward revisions for 2011–2016. These also largely reflected revisions to the residence adjustment. The new journey-to-work data revealed higher earnings outflows from North Dakota, particularly to Montana, related to the rapid expansion of energy production in the Bakken Formation during those years.
  • The revisions tended to be largest in 2017 for the United States and most states because the preliminary estimates for that year (released in March) were based on extrapolations of many components. Those extrapolations have now been replaced with source data released subsequently. State revisions ranged from −4.3 percent to 5.8 percent. The U.S. revision was 2.5 percent.
  • The largest downward revision to personal income in 2017 was in North Dakota (4.3 percent). It is mostly accounted for by the residence adjustment and nonfarm proprietors’ income (table G).
  • The largest upward revision to personal income in 2017 was in New York (5.8 percent). Nonfarm proprietors’ income contributed 2.6 percentage points of the revision and property income contributed 1.6 percentage points.
  • The comprehensive update raised the trend growth rate of the United States in 2008–2017 to 3.4 percent per year from 3.1 percent (table H). Most states had revisions to their trend growth rates no larger than the 0.3 percentage point national revision. New York’s 0.7 percentage point upward revision was the largest upward revision, while North Dakota’s −0.3 percentage point revision was the only downward revision to the state trend growth rates.8
  • Connecticut continues to have the slowest average annual personal income growth rate in 2008–2017 (1.9 percent) after the comprehensive update. Before the update, the growth rate was 1.7 percent. However, the District of Columbia now has the fastest growth rate in 2008–2017 (5.1 percent). Before the revision, North Dakota’s 4.8 percent growth was the fastest.
  • North Dakota ranks 18th in the revised per capita personal income estimates for 2017, down from 11th (table I). Aside from that change, the rankings of state per capita personal income for 2017 changed little. The 10 states with the highest and the 10 states with the lowest per capita personal incomes were the same in the revised estimates and in the previously published estimates.

 

 

 


  1. State personal income, which is measured in current dollars, is the sum of net earnings by place of residence, property income, and personal current transfer receipts.
  2. Compensation accounted for 53 percent of state personal income in 2017 in Wyoming and 70 percent in North Dakota, the states with the smallest and largest shares.
  3. Mining compensation fell 7.2 percent in Alaska in 2017, and construction compensation fell 10.0 percent. As recently as 2015, these two industries accounted for one-sixth of total compensation in Alaska.
  4. See Pamela A. Kelly, Stephanie H. McCulla, and David B. Wasshausen, “Improved Estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts: Results of the 2018 Comprehensive Update,” Survey of Current Business 98 (September 2018).
  5. See David G. Lenze, “Preview of the 2018 Comprehensive Update of the Regional Economic Accounts,” Survey 98 (August 2018).
  6. The actuarial measure of normal cost for state and local government defined benefit pension plans is now based on the projected benefit obligation (PBO) method used for federal plans.
  7. Commercial banks, savings institutions, credit unions, and regulated investment companies often do not charge depositors an explicit fee for services such as check clearing and record keeping. These services are both a type of interest income in kind as well as a type of personal consumption expenditure (PCE). To enhance consistency between state personal income and state PCE, the new estimates will be used for both.
  8. Excluding 2017, the revision to New York’s trend growth rate was only 0.4 percentage point.