NIPA Translation of the Fiscal Year 2020 Federal Budget

By Mark S. Ludwick and Brendan I. Brankin  |  Volume 99, Number 5  |  May 15, 2019

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On March 11, 2019, the President submitted the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2020 to Congress. This article presents estimates of federal government receipts and expenditures for fiscal years 2019 and 2020 that are consistent with the projected receipts and outlays defined in the Budget but measured on a National Income and Product Account (NIPA) basis. These estimates are presented to assist readers in projecting what the effects of budgeted receipts and outlays would be on aggregate economic activity. They will also be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to inform estimates of federal government transactions for the coming year, including the federal government components of gross domestic product (GDP).

For both 2019 and 2020, estimates of federal government current receipts measured on a NIPA basis are greater than budget estimates of receipts, and estimates of federal government current expenditures measured on a NIPA basis are greater than budget estimates of outlays.1 Net federal government saving, defined as the difference between NIPA estimates of current receipts and current expenditures, is −$1,110.8 billion for 2019 and −$1,094.0 billion for 2020. The budget surplus, defined as the difference between budget estimates of receipts and outlays, is −$1,091.5 billion for 2019 and −$1,100.8 billion for 2020 (chart 1, table 1).

Chart 1. Federal Fiscal Position, line chart

[Click chart to expand]

The adjustments made to “translate” budget estimates into NIPA estimates are presented in table 2 and table 3. Differences between NIPA estimates and budget estimates of spending on national defense are shown in table 4. For more information about the conceptual differences between NIPA measures and budget measures of government transactions, see “NIPA Estimates of the Federal Sector and the Federal Budget Estimates.”

Table 1. Budget Receipts and Outlays and NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding fiscal year Change from preceding fiscal year
Actual Estimates
2018 2019 2020 2019 2020
Budget:          
Receipts 3,329.9 3,437.7 3,644.8 107.8 207.1
Outlays 4,109.0 4,529.2 4,745.6 420.2 216.4
Surplus or deficit (−) −779.1 −1,091.5 −1,100.8 −312.4 −9.3
NIPAs:          
Current receipts 3,577.2 3,669.4 3,900.7 92.2 231.3
Current expenditures 4,391.0 4,780.2 4,994.7 389.2 214.5
Net federal government saving −813.8 −1,110.8 −1,094.0 −297.0 16.8
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States, Fiscal Year 2020 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 2. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts to Budget Receipts
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2018 2019 2020
Budget receipts 3,329.9 3,437.7 3,644.8
       
Less: Coverage differences 36.7 33.7 34.2
Contributions received by federal employee pension and insurance funds1 4.5 5.0 5.2
Capital transfers received2 22.9 19.2 19.2
Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other3 9.3 9.5 9.8
       
Less: Netting and grossing differences −252.0 −255.4 −278.8
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −99.7 −107.1 −112.3
Interest receipts −35.4 −52.2 −51.7
Current surplus of government enterprises −0.1 8.6 −0.9
Other4 −116.9 −104.7 −113.8
       
Plus: Timing differences 31.9 10.1 11.3
Taxes on corporate income 22.2 3.2 −1.9
Federal and state unemployment insurance taxes −1.4 −0.1 −0.1
Withheld personal income tax and social security contributions 4.0 9.6 17.1
Excise taxes 7.3 −4.3 −4.0
Other −0.1 1.6 0.2
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current receipts 3,577.2 3,669.4 3,900.7
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. In the NIPAs, pension plans are treated as “pass-through” institutions that hold financial assets on behalf of households, which are the effective owners. Pension plans are classified as financial corporations that receive contributions and property income on behalf of plan participants but do not have saving or net worth of their own. NIPA table 7.23 shows transactions of the federal government defined-benefit pension subsectors.
  2. Consists of estate and gift taxes.
  3. Beginning with 1996, other consists largely of Universal Service Fund receipts. Includes certain revenues collected from and repaid to U.S. territories and the Commonwealths of Puerto Rico and Northern Mariana Islands.
  4. Includes proprietary receipts that are netted against outlays in the budget and that are classified as receipts in the NIPAs and some transactions that are not reflected in the budget but that are added to both receipts and expenditures in the NIPAs.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 3. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current Expenditures to Budget Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2018 2019 2020
Budget outlays 4,109.0 4,529.2 4,745.6
       
Less: Coverage differences −13.5 18.7 47.3
Federal employee pension and insurance fund transactions1 −76.7 −69.3 −69.1
Interest accrued −171.6 −174.8 −179.3
Contributions accrued (employer) −63.2 −61.4 −60.6
Benefits paid 157.9 166.7 170.6
Administrative expenses 0.3 0.2 0.2
Financing disbursements from credit programs2 −82.8 −79.8 −65.1
Other differences in funds covered3 11.5 12.4 12.4
Net investment4 12.1 20.8 43.1
Capital transfers paid5 68.2 70.6 70.9
Financial transactions 59.6 66.3 58.4
Loan disbursements less loan repayments and sales 66.1 67.5 50.0
Deposit insurance −5.2 −0.9 4.4
Net purchases of foreign currency 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other −1.3 −0.4 3.9
Net purchases of nonproduced assets −6.3 −3.4 −4.3
Other6 0.9 1.0 0.9
       
Less: Netting and grossing differences −252.0 −255.4 −278.8
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −99.7 −107.1 −112.3
Interest receipts −35.4 −52.2 −51.7
Current surplus of government enterprises −0.1 8.6 −0.9
Other7 −116.9 −104.7 −113.8
       
Plus: Timing differences 16.4 14.4 17.6
Purchases (increase in payables net of advances) 2.5 5.0 1.3
Interest payments 0.3 0.3 0.3
Current transfer payments 22.8 12.1 11.8
Other8 −9.2 −2.9 4.1
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current expenditures 4,391.0 4,780.2 4,994.7
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. In the NIPAs, pension plans are treated as "pass-through" institutions that hold financial assets on behalf of households, which are the effective owners. Pension plans are classified as financial corporations that receive contributions and property income on behalf of plan participants but do not have saving or net worth of their own. NIPA table 7.23 shows transactions of the federal government defined-benefit pension subsectors. Contributions for publicly administered insurance funds are transactions with the household sector and include the Medicare-eligible Retiree Health Care Fund.
  2. Consists of transactions (not included in the budget totals) that record all cash flows arising from post-1991 direct loan obligations and loan guarantee commitments. Many of these flows are for new loans or loan repayments; therefore, related entries are included in "Loan disbursements less loan repayments and sales."
  3. Consists largely of agencies or accounts, such as the Postal Service and the Federal Financing Bank, that were not included in the budget in some periods, and the Universal Service Fund. Includes repayments of certain collections from the U.S. territories and the Commonwealths of Puerto Rico and Northern Mariana Islands.
  4. Net investment is gross investment less consumption of fixed capital for government enterprises and general government.
  5. Consists of investment grants to state and local governments and maritime construction subsidies. Excludes the forgiveness of debts owed by foreign governments to the U.S. government or payments to the Uniformed Services Retiree Health Care Fund to amortize unfunded liability; both are classified as capital transfers paid by the United States and are excluded from both budget outlays and NIPA current expenditures.
  6. Consists largely of net expenditures of foreign currencies.
  7. Includes proprietary receipts that are netted against outlays in the budget and that are classified as receipts in the NIPAs and some transactions that are not reflected in the budget data but that are added to both receipts and expenditures in the NIPAs.
  8. Primarily includes timing on subsidies and government enterprises.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 4. Relation of National Defense Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment to National Defense Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2018 2019 2020
Budget outlays for national defense 631.2 684.6 737.9
Department of Defense, military 600.7 652.2 704.3
Military personnel 145.8 156.7 163.3
Operation and maintenance 256.7 275.8 290.1
Procurement 112.7 123.3 138.7
Aircraft 34.1 36.1 42.7
Missiles 6.4 8.1 9.1
Ships 15.7 15.9 20.6
Weapons 5.2 6.8 8.1
Ammunition 1.8 4.6 2.9
Other1 49.4 51.8 55.2
Research, development, test, and evaluation 77.0 85.3 99.9
Other 8.6 11.2 12.4
Atomic energy and other defense-related activities 30.4 32.3 33.6
       
Plus: Consumption of general government fixed capital 159.9 161.9 162.6
Additional payments to military and civilian retirement funds 97.2 103.1 105.4
       
Less: Grants-in-aid to state and local governments and net interest paid 0.5 0.6 0.6
Timing differences −1.5 −3.6 −1.5
Other differences 121.5 128.3 136.6
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures and gross investment 767.8 824.3 870.2
       
Less: National defense gross investment2 153.6 162.4 183.4
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures 614.2 661.9 686.7
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. Includes outlays for military construction, family housing, and anticipated funding for war operations.
  2. Gross investment consists of general government expenditures for fixed assets; inventory investment is included in federal government consumption expenditures.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Budget projects increases in federal receipts of $107.8 billion in 2019 and $207.1 billion in 2020 (table 5). These increases are largely the result of budget assumptions about economic activity and growth in real GDP over these years.2 Projected economic growth would result in an expansion of the personal income tax base and increased corporate profits that would increase individual and corporate tax revenues.

Table 5. Budget Receipts by Source
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Budget receipts 3,316.2 3,329.9 3,437.7 3,644.8 13.7 107.8 207.1
Individual income taxes 1,587.1 1,683.5 1,698.4 1,824.2 96.4 14.8 125.8
Corporation income taxes 297.0 204.7 216.2 255.2 −92.3 11.5 39.0
Social insurance taxes and contributions 1,161.9 1,170.7 1,242.4 1,295.5 8.8 71.7 53.1
Excise taxes 83.8 95.0 98.7 108.8 11.2 3.7 10.2
Estate and gift taxes 22.8 23.0 19.3 19.3 0.2 −3.7 0.0
Customs duties 34.6 41.3 69.5 48.4 6.7 28.2 −21.1
Miscellaneous receipts 129.0 111.7 93.3 94.4 −17.3 −18.4 1.1
Other1 0.0 0.0 0.0 −1.0 0.0 0.0 −1.0
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. Includes a reduction in receipts resulting from a budget proposal to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. In NIPA estimates, this proposed reduction is included in personal current taxes.

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020.

The Budget projects increases in federal outlays of $420.1 billion in 2019 and $216.4 billion in 2020 (table 6). The largest contributors to these increases are outlays for Medicare and social security benefits, national defense, and interest on the public debt. The projected deceleration in federal outlays from 2019 to 2020 is driven by outlays for higher education, including outlays for federal direct student loans, and income security, including outlays for food and nutrition assistance programs.

Table 6. Budget Outlays by Function
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2017 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Budget outlays 3981.6 4109.0 4529.2 4745.6 127.4 420.1 216.4
National defense 598.7 631.2 684.6 737.9 32.4 53.4 53.3
International affairs 46.3 49.0 54.3 53.1 2.7 5.4 −1.2
General science, space, and technology 30.4 31.5 33.8 34.6 1.1 2.3 0.8
Energy 3.9 2.2 3.2 3.5 −1.7 1.0 0.3
Natural resources and environment 37.9 39.1 39.9 43.7 1.2 0.7 3.8
Agriculture 18.9 21.8 38.1 19.5 2.9 16.3 −18.6
Commerce and housing credit −26.7 −9.5 −26.4 −5.1 17.2 −16.9 21.3
Transportation 93.6 92.8 98.9 100.9 −0.8 6.1 2.0
Community and regional development 24.9 42.2 33.0 35.7 17.3 −9.2 2.7
Education, training, employment, and social services 144.0 95.5 142.5 112.4 −48.5 47.0 −30.2
Health 533.1 551.2 601.0 616.0 18.1 49.8 15.0
Medicare 597.3 588.7 651.2 685.2 −8.6 62.5 34.0
Income security 503.5 495.3 533.2 514.2 −8.2 37.9 −19.0
Social security 944.9 987.8 1047.0 1107.1 42.9 59.2 60.2
Veterans benefits and services 176.5 178.9 200.5 217.5 2.3 21.6 17.1
Administration of justice 57.9 60.4 71.8 69.0 2.5 11.4 −2.8
General government 23.8 23.9 26.8 31.6 0.1 3.0 4.8
Net interest 262.6 325.0 393.5 478.8 62.4 68.5 85.3
Allowances1 0.0 0.0 −0.7 0.3 0.0 −0.7 1.0
Undistributed offsetting receipts2 −89.8 −97.9 −96.9 −110.4 −8.0 0.9 −13.4
  1. Allowances are included in budget totals to cover certain budgetary transactions that are expected to increase or decrease outlays, receipts, or budget authority but are not reflected in the program details.
  2. Undistributed offsetting receipts are two categories of collections that are governmental in nature and that are not credited to expenditure accounts: receipts from performing business-like activities, such as proceeds from selling federal assets or leases, and shifts from one account to another, such as agency payments to retirement funds.

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020.

Proposed legislation

The budget projections discussed above include receipts and outlays that would result from the continuation of current policies as well as the effects of policy proposals that have not yet been enacted. The Budget also presents estimates of receipts and outlays that are consistent with the current services baseline. These estimates represent the expected deficit outlook and serve as the most appropriate benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed policy changes. The Budget projects an increase in current services baseline outlays of $173.6 billion in 2020 (table 7). This projection includes cuts in defense and nondefense discretionary spending in 2020 that are the result of reductions in spending caps, or “sequestration,” that were mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011.

In this article, the term “proposed legislation” refers to any policies that are included in budget estimates but are not included in current services baseline estimates. If enacted, the net effect of proposed legislation on federal receipts and outlays would increase the federal deficit for 2020 by $36.4 billion (table 7). The legislative proposals that would have the largest effect on the federal deficit in 2020 include the following:

  • A proposal to strengthen the military would increase defense spending by 5 percent from 2019 levels and would increase the deficit by $55.0 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with this proposal are recorded primarily as defense consumption expenditures and gross investment (table 10, lines 50 and 103).
  • A proposal to increase funding for the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Maintaining Internal Systems and Strengthening Integrated Outside Networks Act of 2018, including the establishment of a community care program, would increase the deficit by $8.0 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with this proposal are recorded primarily as nondefense consumption expenditures (table 10, line 51).
  • A proposal to reform welfare programs, including a reduction in outlays for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, would decrease the deficit by $22.1 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with this proposal are recorded primarily as social benefits (table 10, line 65).
  • A proposal to reform health care, including reforms and reductions to Medicare provider payments, would reduce the deficit by $6.0 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with this proposal are recorded primarily as social benefits (table 10, line 60).
Table 7. Proposed Legislative and Program Changes in the Budget
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal Year
2019 2020
Current-services baseline surplus or deficit (−) −1,098.0 −1,066.6
Receipts 3,437.6 3,642.6
Outlays 4,535.6 4,709.2
     
Plus: Net effects of proposed legislation, outlays less receipts1 −6.4 36.4
Increased defense spending 0.0 55.0
VA MISSION Act of 2018 0.0 8.0
Reform welfare programs 0.0 −22.1
Health care reform 0.0 −6.0
Other −6.4 1.5
     
Equals: Administration budget surplus or deficit (−) −1,091.5 −1,100.8
Receipts 3,437.7 3,644.8
Outlays 4,529.2 4,745.6
VA MISSION Act
Veterans Affairs Maintaining Internal Systems and Strengthening Integrated Outside Networks Act
  1. Consistent with the budget, proposed legislation excludes budget reform proposals that are included in the baseline.

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020.

NIPA estimates of federal government current receipts that are consistent with the Budget increase $92.3 billion in 2019 and $231.3 billion in 2020 (table 8 and chart 2). The acceleration in 2020 is primarily due to an acceleration in personal taxes and an upturn in corporate taxes.

NIPA estimates of federal government current expenditures that are consistent with the Budget increase $389.3 billion in 2019 and $214.4 billion in 2020 (table 9 and chart 3). The deceleration in 2020 is largely due to decelerations in defense and nondefense consumption expenditures, social benefits, and grants-in-aid to state and local governments. The deceleration in consumption expenditures includes most of the effects of sequestration cuts to discretionary spending in 2020. The deceleration in grants-in-aid is the result of downturns in federal funding for Medicaid and for education and income security programs administered by state governments.

Chart 2. Federal Government Current Receipts, stacked line chart

[Click chart to expand]

Chart 3. Federal Government Current Expenditures, stacked line chart

[Click chart to expand]

Table 8. Sources of Change in NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts
[Billions of dollars]
  Change from preceding fiscal year
2018 2019 2020
Total current receipts 17.7 92.3 231.3
Current tax receipts −13.2 56.1 151.1
Personal current taxes 41.5 41.0 126.4
Due to tax bases 41.5 41.0 124.0
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 2.4
Taxes on production and imports 20.0 21.2 −8.9
Due to tax bases 20.0 21.2 −9.4
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 0.5
Taxes on corporate income −76.5 −7.8 33.9
Due to tax bases −76.5 −7.8 34.8
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 −0.9
Taxes from the rest of the world 1.9 1.7 −0.2
Contributions for government social insurance 59.6 57.3 65.3
Due to tax bases 59.6 57.3 65.3
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income receipts on assets −26.1 −1.6 −0.2
Current transfer receipts −3.8 −10.9 5.6
Current surplus of government enterprises 1.3 −8.7 9.5
Addenda:
Total due to tax bases 44.6 111.7 214.7
Total due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 2.0
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 9. Sources of Change in NIPA Federal Government Current Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
  Change from preceding fiscal year
2018 2019 2020
Total current expenditures 174.0 389.3 214.4
Consumption expenditures 35.2 83.5 25.6
National defense 22.3 47.8 24.8
Nondefense 12.9 35.7 0.8
Current transfer payments 71.8 219.5 107.7
Government social benefits to persons 49.5 163.3 104.1
Government social benefits to the rest of the world 4.0 1.6 1.6
Grants-in-aid to state and local governments 17.3 51.8 2.4
Other current transfer payments paid to the rest of the world 1.0 2.9 −0.4
Federal interest paid 64.3 81.7 89.9
Subsidies 2.7 4.6 −8.8
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Seasonally adjusted quarterly NIPA estimates for 2019 and 2020 are displayed in table 10. These quarterly estimates are extrapolated from NIPA estimates currently published for the first quarter of 2019, which were released on April 25, 2019.3 The quarterly patterns of these NIPA estimates are based on economic assumptions from the Budget and on expectations about the timing of receipts and expenditures related to specific government programs or policy proposals. For example, the quarterly patterns of estimates of some tax receipts are based on the administration’s projected pattern of wages, while cost-of-living increases for social security and certain other programs are incorporated into estimates of social benefits in the first quarter of each calendar year.4

Because these quarterly projections are based on budget estimates and assumptions, they should be viewed as approximations. Improvements will be made to these estimates as actual receipts and spending occur, as economic conditions change, as new laws are enacted, and as more source data become available. More reliable contemporaneous estimates will be published monthly in NIPA table 3.2 and in related underlying tables.

Table 10. NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars; calendar year and quarters at seasonally adjusted annual rates]

  Line Fiscal year estimates1 Calendar year Quarter
Published2 Estimated Published2 Estimated
2018 2019 2019 2020
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 I II III IV I II III IV I II III
Current receipts 1 3,577.2 3,669.4 3,900.7 3,500.4 3,643.9 3,428.3 3,456.2 3,547.5 3,569.5 3,577.8 3,617.9 3,662.1 3,718.0 3,815.5 3,885.3 3,956.4
Current tax receipts 2 2,047.3 2,103.4 2,254.5 1,959.5 2,067.8 1,908.8 1,936.6 1,973.9 2,018.8 2,026.5 2,052.3 2,080.4 2,111.9 2,174.5 2,223.4 2,276.7
Personal current taxes 3 1,643.0 1,684.0 1,810.4 1,614.2 1,702.8 1,583.9 1,599.2 1,625.3 1,648.2 1,669.7 1,686.9 1,711.4 1,743.1 1,787.3 1,831.3 1,876.8
Withheld income taxes 4 1,297.9 1,319.5 1,435.7 1,282.6 1,356.7 1,260.7 1,270.9 1,290.9 1,308.1 1,324.8 1,341.2 1,365.0 1,396.0 1,434.3 1,472.7 1,510.1
Declarations and final settlements less refunds 5 345.1 364.5 374.7 331.5 346.1 323.3 328.3 334.4 340.0 345.0 345.7 346.5 347.0 353.0 358.6 366.7
Proposed legislation 6 ........ 0.0 2.4 ........ 0.0 ........ ........ ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 3.2
Other 7 345.1 364.5 372.3 331.5 346.1 323.3 328.3 334.4 340.0 345.0 345.7 346.5 347.0 349.8 355.4 363.5
Taxes on production and imports 8 152.6 173.8 164.9 160.3 163.2 149.5 152.0 158.9 180.7 167.9 167.8 162.8 154.2 164.5 161.1 160.4
Proposed legislation 9 ........ 0.0 0.5 ........ 0.0 ........ ........ ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.7
Other 10 152.6 173.8 164.4 160.3 163.2 149.5 152.0 158.9 180.7 167.9 167.8 162.8 154.2 163.9 160.4 159.7
Taxes on corporate income 11 224.9 217.1 251.0 157.7 173.9 149.0 158.1 162.7 160.9 160.9 169.6 178.2 186.7 194.7 203.1 211.7
Proposed legislation 12 ........ 0.0 −0.4 ........ 0.0 ........ ........ ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 −0.6 −0.6 −0.6
Other 13 224.9 217.1 251.4 157.7 173.9 149.0 158.1 162.7 160.9 160.9 169.6 178.2 186.7 195.3 203.7 212.3
Taxes from the rest of the world 14 26.8 28.5 28.3 27.4 27.9 26.3 27.3 27.0 29.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
Contributions for social insurance 15 1,326.3 1,383.7 1,448.9 1,344.8 1,406.0 1,327.5 1,336.2 1,350.9 1,364.5 1,386.4 1,399.5 1,412.5 1,425.7 1,450.9 1,464.6 1,478.9
Domestic 16 1,320.2 1,377.3 1,442.3 1,339.4 1,400.4 1,322.2 1,330.8 1,345.5 1,359.1 1,380.9 1,393.9 1,406.9 1,420.0 1,445.0 1,458.7 1,472.9
Old age, survivors, disability, and hospital insurance 17 1,161.0 1,210.1 1,267.0 1,175.2 1,228.2 1,158.1 1,166.7 1,181.2 1,194.8 1,209.4 1,221.8 1,234.3 1,247.2 1,265.7 1,279.2 1,293.1
Tax on wages and salaries (FICA, gross) 18 1,096.2 1,142.8 1,197.4 1,109.6 1,159.4 1,093.5 1,101.5 1,115.3 1,128.1 1,141.6 1,153.3 1,165.3 1,177.6 1,195.6 1,208.6 1,222.0
Proposed legislation 19 ........ 0.0 0.0 ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rate change 20 ........ 0.0 0.0 ........ 0.0 ........ ........ ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Base increases 21 ........ 4.0 8.9 ........ 5.3 ........ ........ ........ ........ 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 10.0 10.0 10.0
January 2018 22 ........ 4.0 5.3 ........ 5.3 ........ ........ ........ ........ 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
January 2019 23 ........ ........ 3.6 ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.7 4.7
Other 24 1,096.2 1,138.8 1,188.6 1,109.6 1,154.1 1,093.5 1,101.5 1,115.3 1,128.1 1,136.3 1,148.0 1,160.0 1,172.3 1,185.5 1,198.5 1,211.9
FICA refunds 25 −3.2 −3.5 −3.6 −3.4 −3.7 −3.4 −3.4 −3.4 −3.4 −3.7 −3.7 −3.7 −3.7 −3.8 −3.8 −3.8
Voluntary hospital insurance 26 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
Tax on self-employment earnings (SECA) 27 64.2 67.0 69.4 65.3 68.5 64.4 65.0 65.6 66.3 67.6 68.3 68.8 69.3 70.1 70.5 71.1
Proposed legislation 28 ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Base increases 29 ........ 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3
Other 30 64.2 66.8 68.9 65.3 68.5 64.4 65.0 65.6 66.3 67.6 68.3 68.8 69.3 69.7 70.2 70.7
Supplementary medical insurance 31 95.0 102.0 108.4 94.5 101.4 94.4 94.5 94.5 94.6 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.7 107.4 107.6 107.8
Unemployment insurance 32 44.0 44.7 46.5 48.7 49.4 48.8 48.6 48.6 48.6 48.8 49.3 49.6 49.8 50.7 50.8 50.9
Other 33 20.2 20.5 20.3 21.0 21.4 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.1 21.1
Rest of the world 34 6.1 6.3 6.7 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1
Income receipts on assets 35 117.1 115.6 115.4 122.1 110.1 122.4 112.8 126.6 126.5 105.3 107.3 110.9 116.6 121.1 124.6 126.6
Interest receipts 36 28.6 34.8 36.5 31.4 33.7 30.6 30.8 31.7 32.5 32.6 33.7 34.3 34.3 34.4 34.6 35.0
Dividends 37 81.3 70.5 69.0 83.8 68.4 85.3 75.6 88.5 85.9 64.7 65.5 68.8 74.6 79.1 82.3 84.2
Rents and royalties 38 7.3 10.2 9.9 6.9 7.9 6.5 6.5 6.4 8.2 8.0 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.4
Current transfer receipts 39 86.3 75.4 81.0 82.8 67.8 77.1 80.0 105.2 69.0 67.1 67.4 66.5 70.2 72.2 73.9 74.6
From business 40 55.7 48.3 53.0 45.4 33.6 47.4 39.8 59.0 35.3 33.6 32.7 32.5 35.8 37.8 38.2 39.8
From persons 41 21.6 20.7 21.4 27.6 24.0 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 23.8 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.8 24.8
From the rest of the world 42 9.0 6.4 6.6 9.8 10.2 2.3 12.6 18.5 5.9 9.7 10.9 10.0 10.1 9.7 11.0 10.0
Current surplus of government enterprises 43 0.1 −8.6 0.9 −8.8 −7.7 −7.5 −9.3 −9.1 −9.4 −7.6 −8.6 −8.3 −6.5 −3.2 −1.2 −0.5
Postal Service 44 −2.2 −2.2 −0.9 −2.6 −1.8 −2.2 −2.6 −2.5 −3.2 −1.7 −1.9 −1.9 −1.7 −1.3 −1.1 −1.0
Federal Housing Administration 45 1.1 −8.6 0.1 −8.4 −8.6 −7.5 −8.9 −8.7 −8.4 −8.3 −9.4 −9.1 −7.5 −4.4 −2.5 −1.7
Tennessee Valley Authority 46 2.5 2.3 2.6 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5
Other 47 −1.3 −0.1 −0.9 −1.1 −0.5 −0.9 −1.1 −1.3 −1.1 −0.7 −0.5 −0.4 −0.6 −0.9 −1.1 −1.2
Current expenditures 48 4,391.0 4,780.2 4,994.7 4,482.0 4,761.0 4,398.2 4,449.9 4,508.1 4,571.7 4,662.4 4,746.5 4,794.5 4,840.6 4,881.2 4,916.1 4,930.9
Consumption expenditures 49 1,016.7 1,100.2 1,125.9 1,032.0 1,075.6 1,012.7 1,027.9 1,041.3 1,046.2 1,056.7 1,074.8 1,086.7 1,084.1 1,083.2 1,087.4 1,092.7
National defense 50 614.2 661.9 686.7 622.8 661.4 606.6 618.4 628.6 637.6 646.6 659.3 669.9 670.1 671.3 676.9 682.9
Nondefense 51 402.6 438.3 439.1 409.2 414.1 406.0 409.5 412.7 408.5 410.1 415.5 416.8 414.0 411.9 410.5 409.8
Current transfer payments 52 2,778.5 2,998.0 3,105.7 2,839.0 3,028.6 2,800.1 2,828.8 2,853.1 2,874.1 2,981.9 3,024.8 3,040.1 3,067.7 3,091.1 3,104.2 3,096.7
Government social benefits 53 2,148.3 2,313.2 2,418.9 2,203.8 2,380.3 2,172.2 2,188.8 2,212.1 2,242.3 2,342.1 2,371.2 2,394.7 2,413.4 2,447.9 2,456.8 2,461.3
To persons 54 2,123.1 2,286.3 2,390.4 2,180.9 2,356.4 2,149.3 2,165.9 2,189.1 2,219.4 2,318.8 2,347.5 2,370.6 2,388.8 2,422.9 2,431.5 2,435.9
Social security 55 960.6 1,018.5 1,078.4 974.2 1,038.6 960.8 969.1 977.8 989.0 1,022.7 1,033.4 1,043.9 1,054.3 1,085.4 1,090.6 1,093.2
Regular 56 960.6 997.5 1,033.0 974.2 1,010.6 960.8 969.1 977.8 989.0 994.7 1,005.4 1,016.0 1,026.4 1,034.1 1,039.3 1,041.9
Benefit increases 57 ........ 20.9 45.4 ........ 27.9 ........ ........ ........ ........ 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 51.3 51.3 51.3
January 2019 58 ........ 20.9 27.9 ........ 27.9 ........ ........ ........ ........ 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9
January 2020 59 ........ ........ 17.5 ........ 0.0 ........ ........ ........ ........ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.3 23.3 23.3
Medicare 60 693.8 760.2 807.8 734.4 805.8 713.7 724.5 739.9 759.5 782.5 799.6 814.3 826.7 835.9 842.1 845.1
Unemployment benefits 61 28.0 26.8 27.6 25.5 25.4 27.6 25.5 24.7 24.1 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.4
Veterans benefits 62 109.7 121.1 128.4 109.3 118.9 105.5 107.9 110.9 113.0 116.3 118.4 119.9 121.0 124.2 124.7 124.9
Railroad retirement 63 12.7 14.0 13.3 12.7 12.8 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.0 12.8 12.3 12.3 12.0 11.9
Military medical insurance 64 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.8 14.5 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits 65 59.1 62.4 40.2 57.8 49.2 59.3 58.2 57.1 56.7 56.6 53.6 47.5 39.3 32.5 27.9 25.7
Black lung benefits 66 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Supplemental security income 67 53.5 53.9 54.4 52.5 53.0 52.6 52.8 52.5 52.2 53.4 53.1 52.9 52.7 53.7 53.5 53.5
Refundable tax credits 68 137.0 158.4 154.1 140.6 166.9 146.4 142.7 138.8 134.6 168.8 168.2 166.6 163.9 155.9 154.6 153.9
All other 69 53.8 56.3 71.7 58.8 71.1 55.5 57.5 59.7 62.6 65.6 68.3 72.5 78.2 82.4 85.3 86.7
To rest of the world 70 25.3 26.9 28.4 22.9 23.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 22.8 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.4
Grants-in-aid to state and local governments 71 578.1 629.9 632.3 578.1 584.5 579.2 576.6 587.0 569.6 578.2 586.3 588.5 584.9 582.1 580.3 579.4
General public service 72 2.8 2.7 2.9 1.6 0.8 1.4 2.4 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0
National defense 73 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Public order and safety 74 3.8 4.0 2.9 3.8 3.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.9
Economic affairs 75 10.4 12.8 13.1 10.0 8.3 9.7 10.3 10.5 9.4 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3
Transportation3 76 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Space 77 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other economic affairs 78 10.2 12.7 12.9 9.9 8.1 9.6 10.2 10.3 9.2 7.8 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0
General economic and labor affairs 79 3.6 3.2 3.6 3.0 1.9 3.2 3.4 4.0 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
Agriculture 80 1.0 1.6 1.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Energy 81 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3
Natural resources 82 4.6 6.7 6.2 4.8 4.2 4.4 4.7 4.4 6.0 4.1 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3
Housing and community services 83 17.1 19.0 21.9 16.3 16.1 16.1 16.2 17.7 15.2 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.4 18.1 18.6 18.8
Health 84 408.4 440.6 441.8 409.6 427.7 411.2 406.5 418.2 402.4 423.9 428.8 430.1 427.8 426.0 424.8 424.3
Medicaid 85 388.4 417.8 417.3 391.6 407.9 389.7 390.3 398.7 387.9 405.0 409.3 410.1 407.3 405.3 403.9 403.2
Prescription drug plan clawback 86 −11.7 −12.1 −13.0 −11.7 −11.9 −10.9 −12.1 −12.0 −11.7 −11.5 −11.7 −12.0 −12.3 −12.5 −12.6 −12.7
Other 87 31.7 34.9 37.5 29.6 31.6 32.4 28.3 31.5 26.3 30.4 31.2 32.0 32.7 33.2 33.6 33.8
Recreation and culture 88 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Education 89 36.9 42.5 40.0 38.1 28.4 36.7 38.7 36.9 40.0 28.6 29.2 28.7 27.2 26.1 25.4 25.0
Income security 90 97.7 107.1 108.7 97.7 99.1 98.9 97.5 97.5 96.9 97.6 99.2 99.9 99.8 99.6 99.5 99.5
Disability 91 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
Welfare and social services 92 83.8 86.6 83.6 84.2 83.2 84.2 83.8 84.5 84.2 84.0 83.9 83.1 81.8 80.8 80.1 79.8
Unemployment 93 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8
Other 94 8.0 14.6 19.2 7.2 9.6 8.4 7.4 6.7 6.4 7.3 9.0 10.4 11.6 12.5 13.0 13.3
Other current transfer payments paid to the rest of the world 95 52.1 54.9 54.6 57.1 63.8 48.7 63.4 54.0 62.2 61.6 67.3 56.8 69.5 61.1 67.1 56.0
Federal interest paid 96 533.1 614.8 704.7 545.3 585.6 525.5 534.5 554.4 566.7 550.1 574.0 597.6 621.0 642.7 662.6 680.8
Subsidies 97 62.6 67.2 58.4 65.7 71.2 60.0 58.7 59.4 84.7 73.9 73.0 70.1 67.8 64.3 61.9 60.7
Agricultural 98 12.0 9.9 3.0 16.9 22.8 11.4 10.8 11.4 34.0 25.4 24.1 22.1 19.7 17.9 16.7 16.0
Housing 99 38.5 39.7 38.4 37.5 37.7 36.7 37.4 37.8 38.1 38.1 37.9 37.6 37.1 36.7 36.5 36.3
Other 100 12.1 17.6 17.0 11.3 10.7 11.9 10.4 10.1 12.7 10.3 11.0 10.4 11.0 9.7 8.8 8.3
Net federal government saving 101 −813.8 −1,110.8 −1,093.9 −981.6 −1,117.1 −969.9 −993.7 −960.6 −1,002.2 −1,084.7 −1,128.7 −1,132.4 −1,122.6 −1,065.7 −1,030.7 −974.5
Addenda:
Gross investment4 102 284.5 296.8 321.5 287.8 308.7 282.2 285.1 288.2 295.8 298.9 304.1 310.9 320.8 327.2 331.9 334.8
National defense 103 153.6 162.4 183.4 156.1 171.1 152.4 154.2 155.7 162.0 162.8 167.1 172.8 181.6 187.1 191.2 193.9
Nondefense 104 130.8 134.4 138.1 131.8 137.6 129.8 131.0 132.5 133.8 136.0 137.0 138.1 139.2 140.1 140.6 140.9
Consumption expenditures and gross investment 105 1,301.2 1,397.0 1,447.3 1,319.8 1,384.2 1,294.8 1,313.0 1,329.5 1,341.9 1,355.5 1,379.0 1,397.6 1,404.9 1,410.4 1,419.3 1,427.5
National defense 106 767.8 824.3 870.2 778.9 832.5 759.0 772.6 784.3 799.6 809.4 826.4 842.7 851.6 858.4 868.1 876.8
Nondefense 107 533.4 572.7 577.2 540.9 551.7 535.8 540.4 545.2 542.3 546.1 552.5 554.9 553.2 552.0 551.2 550.7
Total receipts 108 3,600.0 3,688.6 3,919.9 3,523.7 3,664.8 3,453.1 3,479.2 3,570.4 3,592.3 3,599.2 3,638.6 3,682.7 3,738.8 3,836.6 3,906.8 3,978.2
Current receipts 109 3,577.2 3,669.4 3,900.7 3,500.4 3,643.9 3,428.3 3,456.2 3,547.5 3,569.5 3,577.8 3,617.9 3,662.1 3,718.0 3,815.5 3,885.3 3,956.4
Capital transfer receipts 110 22.9 19.2 19.2 23.3 20.9 24.8 23.0 22.9 22.8 21.4 20.8 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.8
Total expenditures 111 4,471.4 4,874.0 5,110.3 4,564.1 4,849.8 4,472.9 4,524.7 4,608.0 4,651.0 4,742.0 4,831.3 4,885.7 4,940.3 4,986.3 5,025.4 5,042.9
Current expenditures 112 4,391.0 4,780.2 4,994.7 4,482.0 4,761.0 4,398.2 4,449.9 4,508.1 4,571.7 4,662.4 4,746.5 4,794.5 4,840.6 4,881.2 4,916.1 4,930.9
Gross government investment 113 284.5 296.8 321.5 287.8 308.7 282.2 285.1 288.2 295.8 298.9 304.1 310.9 320.8 327.2 331.9 334.8
Capital transfer payments 114 74.7 76.3 76.8 78.7 76.3 72.9 72.3 96.5 73.0 75.8 76.3 76.5 76.4 76.4 76.4 76.4
Net purchases of nonproduced assets 115 −6.3 −3.4 −4.3 −1.3 −7.1 −0.5 −0.7 −0.6 −3.3 −6.8 −6.8 −6.8 −7.7 −7.7 −7.7 −7.7
Less: Consumption of fixed capital 116 272.4 276.0 278.4 283.0 289.0 279.9 282.0 284.3 286.0 288.3 288.8 289.3 289.8 290.8 291.2 291.5
Net lending or net borrowing (−) 117 −871.4 −1,185.4 −1,190.4 −1,040.4 −1,185.0 −1,019.8 −1,045.5 −1,037.5 −1,058.8 −1,142.8 −1,192.7 −1,203.0 −1,201.5 −1,149.7 −1,118.6 −1,064.7
FICA
Federal Insurance Contributions Act
SECA
Self-Employment Contributions Act
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. Fiscal year estimates are the sum of quarterly estimates that are not seasonally adjusted and that are consistent with budget proposals.
  2. These estimates are published in the NIPA tables 3.2 and 3.9.5.
  3. Most transportation grants-in-aid to state and local governments are classified as capital transfers paid (see the addenda), but water and railroad transportation grants are still classified as current-account transactions.
  4. Gross investment consists of general government and government enterprise expenditures for fixed assets; inventory investment is included in federal government consumption expenditures.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2020 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Budget estimates of government receipts are allocated into five major NIPA receipts categories: current tax receipts, contributions for government social insurance, income receipts on assets, current transfer receipts, and current surplus of government enterprises. These allocations are consistent with national accounting standards and are based on information and assumptions from the Budget and on projections of the effects of specific budget proposals from the U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Tax Analysis.

Budget estimates of government outlays are organized by appropriation in the Budget Appendix. These data and supplemental data from the Office of Management and Budget are used to allocate federal budget outlays into four major NIPA expenditures categories: current transfer payments, interest payments, subsidies, and consumption expenditures and gross investment.

The allocation of budget receipts and outlays into NIPA categories will be used, along with supplemental administrative data, to inform how federal government receipts and spending reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury are allocated into NIPA categories to produce monthly and quarterly NIPA estimates.

When quarterly NIPA estimates are published, estimates of defense consumption expenditures and gross investment will be reconciled with outlays reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement using financial, delivery, and other information from the U.S. Department of Defense. For nondefense expenditures, extrapolations of budget data will be used to estimate some categories of spending, including expenditures for durable goods, nondurable goods, services, and equipment for which no quarterly source data are available. Other categories of spending will incorporate quarterly source data, such as data for construction from the U.S. Census Bureau and for compensation from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

  1. For a historical perspective of the relationship between budget receipts and outlays and NIPA receipts and expenditures, see NIPA table 3.18B.
  2. For a more detailed accounting of the economic assumptions that underlie budget estimates, see chapter 2, “Economic Assumptions and Overview,” in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the Budget.
  3. Because quarterly NIPA estimates are extrapolated from published estimates, the average of the four fiscal year quarters may not equal the displayed fiscal year values, which are consistent with budget data.
  4. In previous years, this article displayed the estimated effect of annual pay raises for federal employees on the quarterly pattern of defense and nondefense consumption expenditures. Beginning with the 2018 comprehensive update of the NIPAs, the effects of annual pay raises are spread throughout the year and no longer have a notable impact on the pattern of these estimates. The effect of annual pay raises can still be observed in the quarterly pattern of defense and nondefense consumption expenditures before seasonal adjustment, as published in NIPA table 8.3.