Advance real state GDP statistics for 2018
Real gross domestic product (GDP) for all states and the District of Columbia grew 2.9 percent in 2018. The percent change ranged from 5.7 percent in the state of Washington to −0.3 percent in Alaska, according to statistics released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Washington, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Oregon, Texas, Nevada, and Tennessee led the nation in real GDP growth in 2018; each state grew faster than the 2.9 percent national growth rate. Except for Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee, these states also led the nation in real GDP growth over the previous 5 years, growing faster than the 2.2 percent national compound annual growth rate from 2012 to 2017 (table 1).
|States that grew faster than the U.S. in both 2017–2018 and in 2012–2017|
|States that grew slower than the U.S. in both 2017–2018 and in 2012–2017|
|District of Columbia||1.5||2.1|
Note. The United States grew 2.2 percent (2012–2017) and 2.9 percent (2017–2018).
Information and retail trade contributed the most to Washington’s 5.7 percent real GDP growth in 2018. Information contributed 1.8 percentage points, and retail trade contributed 1.1 percentage points. This contrasts with the much smaller contributions information and retail trade made to national real GDP growth (0.5 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively).
The large contributions from information and retail trade to Washington’s growth in 2018 are a continuation of the large contributions the industries made in 2017 and 2016, when their combined contributions were 2.6 and 2.9 percentage points, respectively.
Thirty-six states and the District of Columbia grew more slowly than the United States in 2018 as well as more slowly than the United States over the previous 5 years. Alaska’s real GDP fell 0.3 percent in 2018 after falling at a 1.9 percent compound annual rate from 2012 to 2017. Alaska was the only state with a decline in 2018 and was the state with the largest decline over the previous 5 years. Its 2018 real GDP was 9.3 percent below its 2012 peak.
Real GDP for mining fell 7.6 percent in Alaska in 2018 and accounts for much of the decline in Alaska’s real GDP over the previous 5 years.
The advance state GDP statistics for 2018 are based primarily on the national GDP by industry statistics and BEA estimates of earnings by state and industry.1 Substantially richer state source data are now available for earlier years and have been incorporated in revised GDP statistics for 2015–2017. In addition to a disaggregation into 65 three-digit industries (compared to 21 two-digit industries for the 2018 advance statistics), the state GDP statistics for 2015–2017 show the distribution of income from production to labor (compensation), capital (gross operating surplus), and government (taxes on production and imports less subsidies).
Current-dollar GDP for 2017 increased in every state after falling in nine states the previous year (table 2). Growth in 2017 was fastest in the state of Washington (6.0 percent) and slowest in Connecticut (1.0 percent).
|Current dollars||Quantity index for real GDP|
|District of Columbia||3.7||3.9||2.0||1.7|
The distribution of income from production varied substantially across industries:
- For the nation in 2017, compensation ranged from 90 percent of GDP for nursing and residential care facilities to 5 percent for real estate.
- Across private industries, taxes on production and imports ranged from 22 percent for retail trade to 1 percent for construction.
- Subsidies were essentially zero for most industries, but were as high as 7 percent for farms.
- Gross operating surplus ranged from 84 percent for real estate to 5 percent for nursing and residential care facilities.
The distribution of income from production varied markedly across states as well:
- Almost all the growth in current-dollar GDP for 2017 in Connecticut was in compensation, which grew $2.2 billion (table 3). About $0.3 billion was in taxes on production and imports less subsidies and only $20 million was in gross operating surplus.
- In Alaska, almost all the growth in current-dollar GDP for 2017 was in gross operating surplus ($2.1 billion) and in taxes on production and imports less subsidies ($0.2 billion). Compensation of employees fell slightly.2
- Compensation growth for 2017 in New York ($39.8 billion) was greater than in Texas ($36.7 billion), even though Texas is the larger state as measured by GDP. Compensation growth for 2016 in New York was also larger than in Texas.
- Gross operating surplus grew in 2017 in every state except Iowa and North Dakota. The 2017 decline in Iowa, $0.3 billion, was smaller than the $1.3 billion decline in the previous year and was primarily in insurance carriers (down $1.7 billion) and in farms (down $0.4 billion).3
- Similarly, the 2017 decline in North Dakota, $0.1 billion, was smaller than the $2.2 billion decline in the previous year and was primarily in farms (down $0.5 billion) and in construction (down $0.2 billion).4
|Gross domestic product||Compensation of employees||Taxes on production and imports||Subsidies||Gross operating surplus|
|District of Columbia||4,640||5,085||3,073||3,561||164||226||41||9||1,444||1,306|
Note. Gross domestic product equals compensation plus taxes on production and imports less subsidies plus gross operating surplus.
- Economic activity taking place outside the borders of the United States by the military and associated federal civilian support staff.
New source data
The updated state GDP estimates reflect the incorporation of newly available and revised state source data. The major source data incorporated as part of the update are summarized in table 4; additional information is provided in the state GDP methodology on the BEA website.
|Gross domestic product||Farm income and expenses from USDA; oil, gas production and prices, coal reports from EIA; mineral data from USGS; research and development expenditures from NSF|
|Taxes on production and imports||Government finance data, tax revenue data, building permits from Census Bureau; state departments of revenue and/or finance; coal mine price and production, refinery capacity from EIA; federal land usage from DOI|
|Taxes on production and imports||Government finance, tax revenue from Census Bureau; state departments of revenue and/or finance; nuclear power generation, aviation data from EIA; air freight data, highway usage data from DOT; assessment data from FRB; mineral leases, revenues, rents, and royalties data from DOI|
|Gross operating surplus||Electricity revenue, natural gas delivery data from EIA; receipts, revenue, and payroll data from Census Bureau; transportation finance, passengers, and freight data from DOT; rail profits, interest, depreciation data from Amtrak; rail passenger data from NARP; income and expenses from FDIC, FRB, OTS, and FHLBB; premiums and losses from NAIC; Indian gaming revenue data from Casino City Press; mortgage activity data from Inside Mortgage Finance Publications; research and development expenditures from NSF; government finance data from Census Bureau to estimate surplus/deficit of government enterprises|
- U.S Department of Defense
- U.S. Department of Interior
- U.S. Department of Transportation
- Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy
- Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
- Federal Home Loan Bank Board
- Federal Reserve Bank
- National Association of Insurance Commissioners
- National Association of Railroad Passengers
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Thrift Supervision
- U.S Department of Agriculture
- U.S. Geological Survey
The estimates of taxes on production and imports now incorporate state government finance data (including general sales and gross receipts taxes) for fiscal year 2017 from the Census Bureau.
Other estimates incorporate new oil, gas, and coal production and price data for 2017 from the U.S. Energy Information Administration; air transportation finance data and railroad freight ton–miles data for 2017 from the U.S. Department of Transportation; income and expense data for 2017 from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and premium and loss data for 2017 from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.5
In general, for the goods-producing industries, GDP, compensation, taxes on production and imports, and subsidies are estimated, whereas gross operating surplus is derived as a residual. For the services-producing industries, however, gross operating surplus is estimated, and GDP is derived as the sum of the four components.
- BEA estimates of compensation of employees and rental income of persons by state, rather than earnings, were used to estimate real estate GDP. U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates of farm cash receipts by state were used to estimate agriculture GDP. U.S. Department of Energy estimates of oil and gas production and prices by state were used to estimate mining GDP.
- Compensation in Alaska for 2017 fell $0.2 billion in mining, $0.2 billion in construction, and smaller amounts in several other industries. These losses were almost offset by increases in health care, government, and several other industries.
- The declines were partially offset by increases in other industries, including manufacturing and real estate.
- The declines were partially offset by increases in other industries, including oil and gas extraction.
- Value added by state data for 2017 from the Census Bureau’s Census of Manufactures have not yet been released and there is no Annual Survey of Manufactures in census years.