NIPA Translation of the Fiscal Year 2021 Federal Budget

By Mark S. Ludwick and Brendan I. Brankin  |  Volume 100, Number 3  |  March 18, 2020

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On February 10, 2020, the President submitted the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2021 to Congress. This article presents estimates of federal government receipts and expenditures for fiscal years 2020 and 2021 that are consistent with the projected receipts and outlays defined in the budget but measured on a National Income and Product Account (NIPA) basis. These estimates are presented to assist readers in interpreting what the effects of budgeted receipts and outlays would be on aggregate economic activity. They will also be used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to inform estimates of federal government transactions for the coming year, including the federal government components of gross domestic product (GDP).

For both fiscal years 2020 and 2021, estimates of federal government current receipts measured on a NIPA basis are greater than budget estimates of receipts, and estimates of federal government current expenditures measured on a NIPA basis are greater than budget estimates of outlays.1 Net federal government saving, defined as the difference between NIPA estimates of current receipts and current expenditures, is −$1,067.6 billion for 2020 and −$1,051.0 billion for 2021. The budget surplus, defined as the difference between budget estimates of receipts and outlays, is −$1,083.4 billion for 2020 and −$966.1 billion for 2021 (chart 1, table 1).

Chart 1. Federal Fiscal Position, line chart

[Click chart to expand]

The adjustments made to “translate” budget estimates into NIPA estimates are presented in table 2 and table 3. Differences between NIPA estimates and budget estimates of spending on national defense are shown in table 4. For more information about the conceptual differences between NIPA measures and budget measures of government transactions, see “NIPA Estimates of the Federal Sector and the Federal Budget Estimates” at the end of this article.

Table 1. Budget Receipts and Outlays and NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding fiscal year Change from preceding fiscal year
Actual Estimates
2019 2020 2021 2020 2021
Budget:          
Receipts 3,464.2 3,706.3 3,863.3 242.1 157.0
Outlays 4,448.3 4,789.7 4,829.4 341.4 39.7
Surplus or deficit (−) −984.1 −1,083.4 −966.1 −99.3 117.3
NIPAs:          
Current receipts 3,679.0 3,952.8 4,101.9 273.8 149.1
Current expenditures 4,747.2 5,020.4 5,152.9 273.2 132.5
Net federal government saving −1,068.2 −1,067.6 −1,051.0 0.6 16.6
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States, Fiscal Year 2021 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 2. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts to Budget Receipts
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2019 2020 2021
Budget receipts 3,464.2 3,706.3 3,863.3
       
Less: Coverage differences 31.1 35.5 36.9
Contributions received by federal employee pension and insurance funds1 4.8 5.2 5.6
Capital transfers received2 16.6 20.3 21.6
Financial transactions 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other3 9.7 10.0 9.8
       
Less: Netting and grossing differences −254.7 −256.7 −279.8
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −107.6 −119.0 −123.8
Interest receipts −46.7 −33.1 −38.0
Current surplus of government enterprises 3.3 −2.1 −1.8
Other4 −103.6 −102.5 −116.2
       
Plus: Timing differences −8.8 25.4 −4.3
Taxes on corporate income 6.4 9.7 8.8
Federal and state unemployment insurance taxes −1.1 −0.5 −0.4
Withheld personal income tax and social security contributions −7.2 10.8 −19.3
Excise taxes −11.6 1.7 4.0
Other 4.7 3.6 2.6
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current receipts 3,679.0 3,952.8 4,101.9
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. In the NIPAs, pension plans are treated as "pass-through" institutions that hold financial assets on behalf of households, which are the effective owners. Pension plans are classified as financial corporations that receive contributions and property income on behalf of plan participants but do not have saving or net worth of their own. NIPA table 7.23 shows transactions of the federal government defined-benefit pension subsectors.
  2. Consists of estate and gift taxes.
  3. Beginning with 1996, other consists largely of Universal Service Fund receipts. Includes certain revenues collected from and repaid to U.S. territories and the Commonwealths of Puerto Rico and Northern Mariana Islands.
  4. Includes proprietary receipts that are netted against outlays in the budget and that are classified as receipts in the NIPAs and some transactions that are not reflected in the budget but that are added to both receipts and expenditures in the NIPAs.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 3. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current Expenditures to Budget Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2019 2020 2021
Budget outlays 4,448.3 4,789.7 4,829.4
       
Less: Coverage differences −5.8 58.3 −12.0
Federal employee pension and insurance fund transactions1 −85.9 −86.7 −89.0
Interest accrued −175.8 −178.8 −183.3
Contributions accrued (employer) −77.9 −82.2 −82.5
Benefits paid 167.5 174.1 176.7
Administrative expenses 0.3 0.2 0.1
Financing disbursements from credit programs2 −68.5 −9.6 −66.8
Other differences in funds covered3 11.9 13.0 12.1
Net investment4 11.9 15.5 25.4
Capital transfers paid5 74.6 79.1 80.4
Financial transactions 58.2 56.4 51.6
Loan disbursements less loan repayments and sales 60.8 59.5 41.2
Deposit insurance −1.2 −0.7 4.6
Net purchases of foreign currency 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other −1.4 −2.4 5.8
Net purchases of nonproduced assets −3.0 −3.5 −19.7
Other6 −5.0 −5.9 −6.1
Less: Netting and grossing differences −254.7 −256.7 −279.8
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −107.6 −119.0 −123.8
Interest receipts −46.7 −33.1 −38.0
Current surplus of government enterprises 3.3 −2.1 −1.8
Other7 −103.6 −102.5 −116.2
       
Plus: Timing differences 38.3 32.3 31.8
Purchases (increase in payables net of advances) 5.0 7.5 11.6
Interest payments 0.1 0.1 0.1
Current transfer payments 36.4 22.8 22.0
Other8 −3.2 1.9 −1.9
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current expenditures 4,747.2 5,020.4 5,152.9
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. In the NIPAs, pension plans are treated as “pass-through” institutions that hold financial assets on behalf of households, which are the effective owners. Pension plans are classified as financial corporations that receive contributions and property income on behalf of plan participants but do not have saving or net worth of their own. NIPA table 7.23 shows transactions of the federal government defined-benefit pension subsectors. Contributions for publicly administered insurance funds are transactions with the household sector and include the Medicare-eligible Retiree Health Care Fund.
  2. Consists of transactions (not included in the budget totals) that record all cash flows arising from post-1991 direct loan obligations and loan guarantee commitments. Many of these flows are for new loans or loan repayments; therefore, related entries are included in “Loan disbursements less loan repayments and sales.”
  3. Consists largely of agencies or accounts, such as the Postal Service and the Federal Financing Bank, that were not included in the budget in some periods, and the Universal Service Fund. Includes repayments of certain collections from the U.S. territories and the Commonwealths of Puerto Rico and Northern Mariana Islands.
  4. Net investment is gross investment less consumption of fixed capital for government enterprises and general government.
  5. Consists of investment grants to state and local governments and maritime construction subsidies. Excludes the forgiveness of debts owed by foreign governments to the U.S. government or payments to the Uniformed Services Retiree Health Care Fund to amortize unfunded liability; both are classified as capital transfers paid by the United States and are excluded from both budget outlays and NIPA current expenditures.
  6. Consists largely of net expenditures of foreign currencies.
  7. Includes proprietary receipts that are netted against outlays in the budget and that are classified as receipts in the NIPAs and some transactions that are not reflected in the budget data but that are added to both receipts and expenditures in the NIPAs.
  8. Primarily includes timing on subsidies and government enterprises.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 4. Relation of National Defense Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment to National Defense Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal year
2019 2020 2021
Budget outlays for national defense 686.0 724.5 767.1
Department of Defense, military 654.0 689.6 729.3
Military personnel 156.3 162.1 173.9
Operation and maintenance 271.7 283.7 295.1
Procurement 124.7 135.1 142.0
Aircraft 35.6 39.5 42.1
Missiles 5.9 6.8 6.9
Ships 17.0 19.2 22.3
Weapons 5.6 6.6 7.9
Ammunition 2.2 3.0 3.7
Other1 58.4 60.0 59.1
Research, development, test, and evaluation 89.3 97.5 104.6
Other 12.0 11.2 13.8
Atomic energy and other defense-related activities 32.0 34.9 37.8
       
Plus: Consumption of general government fixed capital 164.3 167.8 171.2
Additional payments to military and civilian retirement funds 102.6 106.8 109.6
       
Less: Grants-in-aid to state and local governments and net interest paid 0.6 0.6 0.6
Timing differences −2.0 2.5 −0.5
Other differences 119.8 120.2 129.4
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures and gross investment 834.6 875.8 918.4
       
Less: National defense gross investment2 165.4 172.4 184.8
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures 669.2 703.4 733.6
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. Includes outlays for military construction, family housing, and anticipated funding for war operations.
  2. Gross investment consists of general government expenditures for fixed assets; inventory investment is included in federal government consumption expenditures.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The Budget projects increases in federal receipts of $242.2 billion in 2020 and $157.0 billion in 2021 (table 5). These increases are largely the result of budget assumptions about economic activity and growth in real GDP over these years.2 Projected economic growth would result in an expansion of the personal income tax base and increased corporate profits that would increase individual and corporate tax revenues as well as social insurance and retirement receipts. The projected deceleration in federal receipts from 2019 to 2021 is driven by projected downturns in customs duties collections and deposits of earnings by the Federal Reserve System and by the repeal of several excise taxes that had been established by the 2010 Affordable Care Act.

Table 5. Budget Receipts by Source
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2018 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Budget receipts 3,329.9 3,464.2 3,706.3 3,863.3 134.3 242.2 157.0
Individual income taxes 1,683.5 1,717.9 1,812.0 1,931.7 34.3 94.2 119.6
Corporation income taxes 204.7 230.2 263.6 284.1 25.5 33.4 20.5
Social insurance taxes and contributions 1,170.7 1,243.4 1,312.0 1,373.6 72.7 68.7 61.6
Excise taxes 95.0 99.5 94.6 87.2 4.5 −4.9 −7.4
Estate and gift taxes 23.0 16.7 20.4 21.6 −6.3 3.7 1.3
Customs duties 41.3 70.8 92.3 53.8 29.5 21.5 −38.5
Miscellaneous receipts 111.7 85.8 111.3 111.3 −25.9 25.6 −0.1
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021.

The Budget projects increases in federal outlays of $341.4 billion in 2020 and $39.6 billion in 2021 (table 6). The largest contributors to these increases are outlays for medicare, social security, health, which includes funding for Medicaid, and national defense. The projected deceleration in federal outlays from 2019 to 2021 is driven by the pattern of outlays for education, training, employment, and social services, which includes outlays for federal direct student loans; income security, which includes outlays for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits; health, which includes funding for Medicaid; and commerce and housing credit, which includes costs associated with the 2020 Census.3, 4

Table 6. Budget Outlays by Function
[Billions of dollars]
  Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2018 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Budget outlays 4109.0 4448.3 4789.7 4829.4 339.3 341.4 39.6
National defense 631.1 686.0 724.5 767.1 54.9 38.5 42.6
International affairs 49.0 52.7 58.3 60.7 3.7 5.6 2.4
General science, space, and technology 31.5 32.4 35.0 37.5 0.9 2.6 2.5
Energy 2.2 5.0 4.6 4.9 2.9 −0.4 0.3
Natural resources and environment 39.1 37.8 42.8 43.9 −1.3 5.0 1.1
Agriculture 21.8 38.3 38.3 27.5 16.5 0.1 −10.8
Commerce and housing credit −9.5 −25.7 0.7 0.7 −16.2 26.4 0.0
Transportation 92.8 97.1 101.6 104.3 4.3 4.4 2.7
Community and regional development 42.2 26.9 30.3 33.8 −15.3 3.4 3.5
Education, training, employment, and social services 95.5 136.8 195.5 112.0 41.2 58.8 −83.5
Health 551.2 584.8 640.9 648.6 33.6 56.1 7.7
Medicare 588.7 651.0 699.3 728.5 62.3 48.3 29.2
Income security 495.3 514.8 529.3 523.8 19.5 14.5 −5.5
Social security 987.8 1044.4 1097.2 1156.2 56.6 52.8 59.0
Veterans benefits and services 178.9 199.8 215.1 235.8 20.9 15.2 20.7
Administration of justice 60.4 65.7 79.6 75.8 5.3 13.8 −3.8
General government 23.9 23.4 29.5 28.9 −0.4 6.0 −0.6
Net interest 325.0 375.2 376.2 378.2 50.2 1.0 2.0
Allowances1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0
Undistributed offsetting receipts2 −97.9 −98.2 −109.2 −139.1 −0.3 −11.0 −29.9
  1. Allowances are included in budget totals to cover certain budgetary transactions that are expected to increase or decrease outlays, receipts, or budget authority but are not reflected in the program details.
  2. Undistributed offsetting receipts are two categories of collections that are governmental in nature and that are not credited to expenditure accounts: receipts from performing business-like activities, such as proceeds from selling federal assets or leases, and shifts from one account to another, such as agency payments to retirement funds.

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021.

Proposed legislation

The budget projections discussed above include receipts and outlays that would result from the continuation of current policies as well as the effects of policies proposed in the budget that have not yet been enacted. The Budget also includes projected estimates of receipts and outlays that are consistent with the adjusted current services baseline. These estimates represent the expected deficit outlook in the absence of any policy changes and serve as the most appropriate benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed policy changes. In the adjusted current services baseline, receipts are projected to increase $154.0 billion and outlays are projected to increase $83.8 billion in 2021 (table 7).

In this article, the term “proposed legislation” refers to any policies included in budget estimates that are not included in the adjusted current services baseline. If enacted, the net effect of proposed legislation on federal receipts and outlays would reduce the federal deficit for 2021 by $48.2 billion (table 7). Legislative proposals that would have the largest effect on the federal deficit in 2021 include the following:

  • A proposal to modernize welfare programs, including a reduction in outlays for SNAP benefits, would decrease the deficit by $20.3 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with this proposal are recorded primarily as social benefits (table 10, line 46).
  • A proposal to modernize Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, including an expansion of work and community engagement requirements for Medicaid eligibility, would reduce the deficit by $8.3 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with these state-run programs are recorded primarily as grants-in-aid to state and local governments (table 10, line 58).
  • A proposal to eliminate wasteful Federal spending in Medicare would reduce the deficit by $8.1 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with this proposal are recorded primarily as social benefits (table 10, line 41).
  • A proposal to reform the U.S. Postal Service, including operational reforms and re-amortization of payments to the Retiree Health Benefits Fund, would reduce the deficit by $7.0 billion. In NIPA estimates, outlays associated with this proposal are recorded primarily as current surplus of government enterprises (table 10, line 29).
  • A proposal to reform student loans, including simplification of student loan repayment and elimination of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program, would reduce the deficit by $6.0 billion. In NIPA estimates, loans are treated as an exchange of financial assets and do not significantly affect estimates of current receipts or expenditures.
Table 7. Proposed Legislative and Program Changes in the Budget
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal Year
2020 2021
Current-services baseline surplus or deficit (−) −1,084.5 −1,014.3
Receipts 3,706.4 3,860.4
Outlays 4,790.9 4,874.7
     
Plus: Net effects of proposed legislation, receipts less outlays1 1.1 48.2
Reform welfare programs 0.0 20.3
Modernize Medicaid and CHIP 0.0 8.3
Eliminate wasteful Medicare spending 0.0 8.1
Reform the Postal Service 2.2 7.0
Reform Student loans 0.0 6.0
Support major investment in infrastructure 0.0 −4.8
Other −1.1 3.2
     
Equals: Administration budget surplus or deficit (−) −1,083.4 −966.1
Receipts 3,706.3 3,863.3
Outlays 4,789.7 4,829.4
  1. Consistent with the budget, proposed legislation excludes budget reform proposals that are included in the baseline.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021.

NIPA estimates of federal government current receipts that are consistent with the Budget increase by $273.8 billion in 2020 and $149.0 billion in 2021 (table 8 and chart 2). The deceleration in 2021 is due to a downturn in taxes on production and imports and decelerations in personal taxes and corporate taxes.

NIPA estimates of federal government current expenditures that are consistent with the Budget increase by $273.3 billion in 2020 and $132.5 billion in 2021 (table 9 and chart 3). The deceleration in 2021 is due to a downturn in nondefense consumption expenditures and decelerations in social benefits and grants-in-aid to state and local governments. The downturn in nondefense consumption expenditures reflects the effects of cuts to discretionary spending in 2021 as well as reductions in spending following the 2020 Census. The deceleration in social benefits reflects a deceleration in Medicare benefits and a downturn in SNAP benefits. The deceleration in grants-in-aid reflects downturns in funding for health and income security programs administered by state governments.

Chart 2. Federal Government Current Receipts, stacked line chart

[Click chart to expand]

Chart 3. Federal Government Current Expenditures, stacked line chart

[Click chart to expand]

Table 8. Sources of Change in NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts
[Billions of dollars]
  Change from preceding fiscal year
2019 2020 2021
Total current receipts 180.5 273.8 149.0
Current tax receipts 146.4 187.0 65.8
Personal current taxes 52.1 122.5 89.1
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 2.6
Taxes on production and imports 23.4 27.8 −42.8
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 0.0
Taxes on corporate income 69.5 36.2 19.5
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 −0.2
Taxes from the rest of the world 1.3 0.4 0.0
Contributions for government social insurance 62.0 74.2 70.5
Due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income receipts on assets −5.6 6.2 2.9
Current transfer receipts −20.4 −0.5 10.1
Current surplus of government enterprises −2.0 7.0 −0.3
Addenda:
Total due to proposed legislation 0.0 0.0 2.4
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Table 9. Sources of Change in NIPA Federal Government Current Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
  Change from preceding fiscal year
2019 2020 2021
Total current expenditures 305.5 273.3 132.5
Consumption expenditures 51.2 78.9 22.8
National defense 42.6 34.2 30.2
Nondefense 8.6 44.7 −7.5
Current transfer payments 167.9 188.5 101.7
Government social benefits to persons 147.7 123.1 104.0
Government social benefits to the rest of the world 2.5 1.4 1.5
Grants-in-aid to state and local governments 21.3 59.8 0.0
Other current transfer payments paid to the rest of the world −3.6 4.3 −3.6
Federal interest paid 65.4 11.1 7.3
Subsidies 21.0 −5.3 0.7
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Seasonally adjusted quarterly NIPA estimates for 2020 and 2021 are displayed in table 10. These quarterly estimates are extrapolated from NIPA estimates currently published for the fourth quarter of 2019, which were released on February 27, 2020.5 The quarterly patterns of these NIPA estimates are based on economic assumptions from the Budget and on expectations about the timing of receipts and expenditures related to specific government programs or policy proposals. For example, the quarterly pattern of estimates of some tax receipts are based on the Administration’s projected pattern of wages, while cost-of-living increases for social security and certain other programs are incorporated into estimates of social benefits in the first quarter of each calendar year.

Because these quarterly projections are based on budget estimates and assumptions, they should be viewed as approximations. Improvements will be made to these estimates as actual receipts and spending occur, as economic conditions change, as new laws are enacted, and as more source data become available. More accurate, contemporaneous estimates will be published monthly in NIPA table 3.2 and in related underlying tables.

Table 10. NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars; calendar year and quarters at seasonally adjusted annual rates]
  Line Fiscal year estimates1 Calendar year Quarter
Published2 Estimated Published2 Estimated
2019 2020 2021
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 I II III IV I II III IV I II III
Current receipts 1 3,679.0 3,952.8 4,101.9 3,604.6 3,801.6 3,576.7 3,606.3 3,608.3 3,627.0 3,730.2 3,783.9 3,828.0 3,864.4 3,854.4 3,895.7 3,951.9
Current tax receipts 2 2,115.5 2,302.4 2,368.3 2,031.1 2,151.7 2,018.6 2,027.6 2,028.4 2,049.9 2,111.6 2,142.4 2,167.4 2,185.5 2,150.7 2,178.0 2,220.4
Personal current taxes 3 1,680.1 1,802.7 1,891.7 1,698.9 1,790.2 1,688.0 1,691.3 1,698.4 1,718.0 1,750.2 1,775.4 1,803.5 1,831.7 1,824.1 1,854.5 1,893.2
Withheld income taxes 4 1,304.7 1,402.6 1,483.5 1,312.1 1,380.4 1,301.8 1,307.3 1,312.5 1,326.9 1,352.1 1,369.2 1,389.6 1,410.6 1,423.7 1,447.5 1,479.6
Declarations and final settlements less refunds 5 375.4 400.1 408.3 386.8 409.9 386.2 384.0 385.9 391.1 398.1 406.3 413.9 421.1 400.4 407.0 413.6
Taxes on production and imports 6 172.0 199.8 157.0 169.1 186.5 166.1 161.7 171.5 177.2 196.3 193.7 184.9 171.2 142.9 135.4 131.7
Taxes on corporate income 7 234.9 271.1 290.6 134.5 145.7 136.6 146.0 130.1 125.4 135.8 143.9 149.8 153.4 154.5 158.8 166.2
Taxes from the rest of the world 8 28.5 28.9 28.9 28.6 29.3 28.0 28.6 28.5 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3
Contributions for social insurance 9 1,388.6 1,462.7 1,533.2 1,402.2 1,467.1 1,390.4 1,399.2 1,404.0 1,415.1 1,444.8 1,459.3 1,474.8 1,489.3 1,514.2 1,529.2 1,543.4
Domestic 10 1,382.1 1,455.9 1,526.1 1,396.7 1,461.5 1,385.1 1,393.7 1,398.5 1,409.6 1,439.3 1,453.8 1,469.2 1,483.6 1,508.4 1,523.3 1,537.5
Old age, survivors, disability, and hospital insurance 11 1,218.3 1,278.4 1,340.2 1,229.1 1,281.1 1,216.9 1,225.8 1,231.1 1,242.5 1,260.1 1,273.6 1,288.4 1,302.3 1,322.4 1,336.7 1,350.1
Tax on wages and salaries (FICA, gross) 12 1,150.6 1,209.8 1,267.8 1,160.8 1,211.6 1,149.4 1,157.9 1,162.6 1,173.3 1,191.4 1,204.7 1,218.9 1,231.5 1,250.4 1,263.2 1,275.2
FICA refunds 13 −3.5 −3.8 −4.0 −3.5 −3.8 −3.5 −3.5 −3.5 −3.5 −3.8 −3.8 −3.8 −3.8 −4.0 −4.0 −4.0
Voluntary hospital insurance 14 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
Tax on self-employment earnings (SECA) 15 67.4 68.6 72.6 68.1 69.6 67.3 67.8 68.4 69.0 68.8 69.0 69.6 70.9 72.3 73.7 75.2
Supplementary medical insurance 16 102.6 113.5 119.8 105.0 116.8 104.9 105.0 105.1 105.2 116.4 116.8 117.0 117.2 120.9 121.1 121.4
Unemployment insurance 17 40.5 42.0 43.3 43.1 43.8 43.5 43.3 42.9 42.8 43.4 43.7 43.9 44.1 44.9 45.0 45.2
Other 18 20.7 22.0 22.9 19.5 19.8 19.8 19.7 19.5 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.7
Rest of the world 19 6.4 6.8 7.1 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0
Income receipts on assets 20 111.6 117.8 120.7 107.2 114.6 106.3 119.7 97.7 104.9 111.6 115.3 115.9 115.5 114.8 114.4 114.5
Interest receipts 21 34.1 36.4 38.6 35.2 37.1 34.0 35.2 35.7 36.0 36.3 36.8 37.3 37.9 38.5 39.1 39.7
Dividends 22 68.7 73.5 74.3 61.5 67.7 61.9 73.9 51.8 58.6 65.2 68.6 68.9 67.9 66.4 65.5 64.9
Rents and royalties 23 8.8 8.0 7.9 10.4 9.9 10.5 10.6 10.2 10.3 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9
Current transfer receipts 24 66.2 65.7 75.8 71.6 70.8 68.5 68.2 86.3 63.6 65.6 69.3 71.7 76.5 77.9 78.0 78.4
From business 25 34.5 38.6 48.6 38.6 42.7 34.6 36.2 51.6 32.0 37.8 41.5 43.6 47.9 49.0 48.9 49.2
From persons 26 24.8 20.8 20.8 25.9 22.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 22.1 21.9 22.1 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.3
From the rest of the world 27 6.8 6.4 6.4 7.1 5.9 7.8 6.1 9.0 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Current surplus of government enterprises 28 −2.9 4.1 3.8 −7.5 −2.5 −7.2 −8.3 −8.1 −6.5 −3.5 −2.3 −1.9 −2.4 −3.1 −3.9 −4.8
Postal Service 29 −3.5 −0.9 −0.4 −3.1 −0.5 −3.2 −3.3 −3.3 −2.7 −1.0 −0.5 −0.2 −0.1 −0.2 −0.3 −0.5
Federal Housing Administration 30 −1.7 4.0 4.6 −6.5 −2.8 −6.2 −7.3 −7.0 −5.8 −3.9 −2.7 −2.2 −2.2 −2.6 −3.3 −4.2
Tennessee Valley Authority 31 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2
Other 32 0.1 −1.3 −2.7 −0.1 −1.6 −0.2 0.0 0.0 −0.3 −0.9 −1.4 −1.9 −2.4 −2.6 −2.6 −2.3
Current expenditures 33 4,747.2 5,020.4 5,152.9 4,800.5 4,995.0 4,699.6 4,794.2 4,833.5 4,874.8 4,966.2 4,981.3 5,002.6 5,029.8 5,095.9 5,102.2 5,127.6
                                   
Consumption expenditures 34 1,089.5 1,168.4 1,191.2 1,114.0 1,170.1 1,091.6 1,110.5 1,121.1 1,133.0 1,165.0 1,172.2 1,172.4 1,170.8 1,183.4 1,187.8 1,192.5
National defense 35 669.2 703.4 733.6 677.9 710.7 666.6 676.9 680.2 687.9 707.9 709.3 710.1 715.3 733.2 741.0 747.4
Nondefense 36 420.3 465.0 457.6 436.1 459.5 425.0 433.6 440.9 445.1 457.2 462.9 462.3 455.4 450.3 446.8 445.1
Current transfer payments 37 2,984.7 3,173.3 3,275.0 3,034.1 3,168.7 2,992.7 3,017.4 3,045.7 3,080.7 3,144.3 3,154.5 3,175.9 3,200.1 3,250.5 3,248.3 3,263.5
Government social benefits 38 2,330.0 2,454.5 2,559.9 2,366.1 2,474.9 2,330.4 2,353.9 2,377.3 2,402.9 2,443.6 2,465.5 2,485.5 2,504.9 2,554.4 2,571.5 2,588.5
To persons 39 2,304.9 2,428.0 2,531.9 2,342.2 2,449.7 2,307.0 2,330.1 2,353.1 2,378.7 2,419.0 2,440.5 2,460.2 2,479.2 2,528.3 2,545.0 2,561.7
Social security 40 1,016.0 1,067.9 1,126.5 1,034.7 1,087.4 1,022.9 1,030.5 1,037.7 1,047.5 1,074.0 1,083.2 1,092.0 1,100.5 1,135.3 1,143.5 1,151.7
Medicare 41 783.2 832.6 870.8 800.5 848.2 774.9 793.6 809.9 823.8 834.3 844.1 853.1 861.3 870.9 881.8 894.0
Unemployment benefits 42 28.5 28.6 30.7 26.1 26.7 26.9 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.5 28.1 28.8 29.5
Veterans benefits 43 133.4 142.2 156.7 119.2 129.7 116.4 118.3 120.0 122.2 124.2 127.2 131.2 136.3 140.0 142.6 143.9
Railroad retirement 44 13.0 13.7 13.3 13.0 13.3 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.4 13.2 13.0 13.1 12.8 12.5
Military medical insurance 45 14.1 14.5 15.0 14.9 15.2 14.8 15.0 15.0 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits 46 56.1 56.3 40.9 54.2 49.1 55.1 53.7 53.8 54.0 53.3 51.2 47.7 44.1 39.0 33.5 27.9
Black lung benefits 47 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Supplemental security income 48 53.9 54.6 54.9 53.4 53.7 53.4 53.7 53.6 53.1 53.9 53.8 53.6 53.4 54.4 54.1 53.8
Refundable tax credits 49 149.2 151.9 147.5 167.5 158.0 173.9 169.7 165.3 161.2 159.9 159.0 157.6 155.6 157.3 154.9 152.5
All other 50 57.3 65.4 75.4 58.4 68.2 55.5 56.6 58.8 62.6 64.7 66.9 69.3 71.9 74.5 77.2 80.0
To rest of the world 51 25.0 26.5 27.9 23.9 25.2 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.4 26.8
Grants-in-aid to state and local governments 52 601.3 661.1 661.0 611.4 638.6 600.5 614.1 614.3 616.6 632.4 641.2 643.0 637.8 633.9 631.3 630.0
General public service 53 3.4 2.8 3.0 1.6 −0.1 1.7 2.2 2.2 0.3 0.0 −0.1 −0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3
National defense 54 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Public order and safety 55 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.7 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8
Economic affairs 56 10.3 13.2 12.5 10.6 12.8 9.4 9.8 11.5 11.7 12.6 13.0 13.0 12.4 12.0 11.7 11.6
Housing and community services 57 16.3 19.3 22.5 15.6 17.5 15.5 16.3 15.9 14.9 16.0 17.0 18.0 18.9 19.6 20.0 20.3
Health 58 429.6 470.8 470.2 439.1 453.8 434.5 441.2 441.6 439.3 449.8 455.6 456.7 453.0 450.3 448.4 447.5
Recreation and culture 59 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Education 60 38.6 42.0 41.0 37.2 39.2 34.6 37.3 38.3 38.5 39.2 39.5 39.3 38.7 38.2 37.9 37.8
Income security 61 98.8 108.6 107.4 103.2 111.4 100.6 103.3 100.8 108.0 110.7 112.1 112.1 110.7 109.6 108.9 108.6
Other current transfer payments paid to the rest of the world 62 53.5 57.8 54.1 56.6 55.3 61.8 49.4 54.1 61.2 68.3 47.8 47.4 57.4 62.2 45.5 45.1
                                   
Federal interest paid 63 592.7 603.9 611.1 578.3 580.0 543.4 605.1 584.8 579.8 579.2 579.3 580.0 581.4 584.2 588.2 593.5
Subsidies 64 80.2 74.9 75.6 74.1 76.2 72.0 61.3 82.0 81.4 77.6 75.3 74.3 77.5 77.8 78.0 78.1
Agricultural 65 22.0 17.1 17.1 22.1 25.4 19.9 9.3 30.1 29.2 26.5 25.0 24.7 25.6 26.2 26.7 26.9
Housing 66 39.8 40.6 42.6 39.4 40.4 39.5 39.4 39.3 39.4 39.6 40.0 40.6 41.3 41.8 42.1 42.3
Other 67 18.5 17.1 15.9 12.6 10.3 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.7 11.5 10.2 9.0 10.7 9.8 9.2 8.9
Net federal
government saving		 68 −1,068.2 −1,067.6 −1,051.1 −1,196.0 −1,193.4 −1,122.9 −1,188.0 −1,225.2 −1,247.8 −1,236.0 −1,197.4 −1,174.7 −1,165.5 −1,241.5 −1,206.6 −1,175.7
Addenda:
Gross investment3 69 299.8 310.5 326.6 309.5 318.7 303.1 304.7 311.2 318.9 311.3 315.4 319.9 328.1 331.9 334.4 335.7
National defense 70 165.4 172.4 184.8 168.8 173.5 165.2 164.8 169.1 176.2 167.8 170.8 174.2 181.3 184.1 186.1 187.1
Nondefense 71 134.4 138.1 141.8 140.6 145.2 137.9 139.9 142.1 142.6 143.6 144.6 145.7 146.9 147.8 148.3 148.6
Consumption expenditures and gross investment 72 1,389.3 1,478.9 1,517.8 1,423.5 1,488.8 1,394.7 1,415.2 1,432.2 1,451.9 1,476.4 1,487.6 1,492.3 1,498.9 1,515.3 1,522.2 1,528.2
National defense 73 834.6 875.8 918.4 846.7 884.1 831.8 841.6 849.3 864.1 875.6 880.1 884.2 896.6 917.3 927.0 934.5
Nondefense 74 554.8 603.1 599.4 576.8 604.6 562.9 573.5 583.0 587.7 600.7 607.5 608.0 602.3 598.0 595.1 593.7
Total receipts 75 3,695.6 3,973.1 4,123.4 3,623.8 3,821.4 3,598.1 3,625.9 3,626.6 3,644.4 3,749.1 3,803.8 3,848.3 3,884.6 3,874.6 3,916.1 3,972.6
Current receipts 76 3,679.0 3,952.8 4,101.9 3,604.6 3,801.6 3,576.7 3,606.3 3,608.3 3,627.0 3,730.2 3,783.9 3,828.0 3,864.4 3,854.4 3,895.7 3,951.9
Capital transfer receipts 77 16.6 20.3 21.6 19.2 19.8 21.4 19.7 18.3 17.4 18.9 19.9 20.3 20.2 20.2 20.4 20.7
Total expenditures 78 4,826.4 5,107.2 5,234.9 4,890.2 5,091.5 4,781.5 4,880.1 4,925.2 4,974.0 5,056.9 5,075.3 5,100.2 5,133.5 5,202.4 5,145.7 5,236.1
Current expenditures 79 4,747.2 5,020.4 5,152.9 4,800.5 4,995.0 4,699.6 4,794.2 4,833.5 4,874.8 4,966.2 4,981.3 5,002.6 5,029.8 5,095.9 5,102.2 5,127.6
Gross government investment 80 299.8 310.5 326.6 309.5 318.7 303.1 304.7 311.2 318.9 311.3 315.4 319.9 328.1 331.9 334.4 335.7
Capital transfer payments 81 74.6 79.1 80.4 77.4 80.2 77.5 76.0 77.7 78.6 79.4 80.2 81.0 80.4 81.0 81.4 81.6
Net purchases of nonproduced assets 82 −3.0 −3.5 −19.7 −3.1 −0.9 −6.8 −2.3 −2.2 −0.9 −0.9 −0.9 −0.9 −0.9 −0.9 −65.5 −0.9
Less: Consumption of fixed capital 83 292.1 299.2 305.4 294.2 301.5 291.8 292.6 295.1 297.4 299.1 300.7 302.4 304.0 305.5 306.8 308.0
Net lending or net borrowing (−) 84 −1,130.8 −1,134.1 −1,111.5 −1,266.4 −1,270.0 −1,183.4 −1,254.1 −1,298.6 −1,329.6 −1,307.8 −1,271.5 −1,251.9 −1,248.9 −1,327.7 −1,229.7 −1,263.5
FICA
Federal Insurance Contributions Act
SECA
Self-Employment Contributions Act
NIPAs
National Income and Product Accounts
  1. Fiscal year estimates are the sum of quarterly estimates that are not seasonally adjusted and that are consistent with budget proposals.
  2. These estimates are published in the NIPA tables 3.2 and 3.9.5.
  3. Gross investment consists of general government and government enterprise expenditures for fixed assets; inventory investment is included in federal government consumption expenditures.

Sources: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2021 and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Budget estimates of government receipts are allocated into five major NIPA receipts categories: (1) current tax receipts, (2) contributions for government social insurance, (3) income receipts on assets, (4) current transfer receipts, and (5) current surplus of government enterprises. These allocations are consistent with national accounting standards and are based on information and assumptions from the Budget and on projections of the effects of specific budget proposals from the U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Tax Analysis.

Budget estimates of government outlays are organized by appropriation in the Budget Appendix. These data and supplemental data from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget are used to allocate federal budget outlays into four major NIPA expenditures categories: (1) current transfer payments, (2) interest payments, (3) subsidies, and (4) consumption expenditures and gross investment.

The allocation of budget receipts and outlays into NIPA categories will be used, along with supplemental administrative data, to inform how federal government receipts and spending reported by the U.S. Department of the Treasury are allocated into NIPA categories to produce monthly and quarterly NIPA estimates.

When quarterly NIPA estimates are published, estimates of defense consumption expenditures and gross investment will be reconciled with outlays reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement using financial, delivery, and other information from the U.S. Department of Defense. For nondefense expenditures, extrapolations of budget data will be used in the estimation of some categories of spending, including expenditures for durable goods, nondurable goods, services, and equipment for which no quarterly source data are available. Other categories of spending will incorporate quarterly source data, such as data for construction from the U.S. Census Bureau and data for compensation from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

  1. For a historical perspective of the relationship between budget receipts and outlays and NIPA receipts and expenditures, see NIPA table 3.18B.
  2. A more detailed accounting of the economic assumptions that underlie budget estimates is described in the “Economic Assumptions and Interactions with the Budget,” chapter of the Analytical Perspectives volume of the Budget.
  3. Items in italics correspond to budget functional classifications, as defined in the “Budget Concepts” chapter of the Analytical Perspectives volume of the Budget.
  4. Projected reductions in defense and nondefense discretionary spending in 2021 include the effects spending caps that were mandated by the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019.
  5. Because quarterly NIPA estimates are extrapolated from published estimates, the average of the four fiscal year quarters may not equal the displayed fiscal year values, which are consistent with fiscal year budget data.