GDP and the Economy

Third Estimates for the First Quarter of 2023

July 7, 2023

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimates of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 The increase in first-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the “second” estimate issued in May. In the fourth quarter of 2022, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

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Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2022:Q4

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The increase in first-quarter real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2

  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods (led by motor vehicles and parts) and services (led by health care, food services and accommodations, and “other” services).
  • Within exports, an increase in goods (led by consumer goods, except food and automotive and other exports of goods) was partly offset by a decrease in services (led by other business services).
  • The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected increases in compensation of state and local government employees and structures investment.
  • The increase in federal government spending reflected increases in both nondefense and defense spending.
    • The increase in nondefense spending primarily reflected lower sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, based on data from the U.S. Department of Energy. Within the National Economic Accounts, these sales are deducted from government consumption expenditures; therefore, a decrease in sales results in a corresponding increase in consumption expenditures. Because the oil sold by the government enters private inventories, there is no direct net effect on GDP.
    • The increase in defense spending was led by spending on intermediate goods and services, notably, services.
  • Within nonresidential fixed investment, increases in structures and intellectual property products (led by software) were partly offset by a decrease in equipment.
  • The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing.
  • Within residential fixed investment, the decrease primarily reflected a decline in new single-family construction that was partly offset by an increase in brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs.
  • Within imports, the increase mainly reflected an increase in goods (led by automotive vehicles, engines, and parts and other imports of goods).

Compared to the fourth quarter, the first-quarter deceleration in real GDP primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a slowdown in nonresidential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending, an upturn in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports turned up.

Real gross domestic income (GDI), the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP, decreased 1.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 0.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 Gross domestic product (GDP)1 100.0 −0.6 3.2 2.6 2.0 −0.6 3.2 2.6 2.0
2 Personal consumption expenditures 68.3 2.0 2.3 1.0 4.2 1.38 1.54 0.70 2.79
3 Goods 22.9 −2.6 −0.4 −0.1 6.0 −0.61 −0.08 −0.01 1.34
4 Durable goods 8.5 −2.8 −0.8 −1.3 16.3 −0.24 −0.07 −0.11 1.28
5 Nondurable goods 14.4 −2.5 −0.1 0.6 0.5 −0.37 −0.01 0.09 0.07
6 Services 45.4 4.6 3.7 1.6 3.2 1.99 1.63 0.72 1.44
7 Gross private domestic investment 17.2 −14.1 −9.6 4.5 −11.9 −2.83 −1.80 0.79 −2.22
8 Fixed investment 17.2 −5.0 −3.5 −3.8 −0.4 −0.92 −0.62 −0.68 −0.08
9 Nonresidential 13.3 0.1 6.2 4.0 0.6 0.01 0.80 0.52 0.08
10 Structures 2.8 −12.7 −3.6 15.8 15.8 −0.34 −0.09 0.38 0.40
11 Equipment 5.1 −2.0 10.6 −3.5 −8.9 −0.11 0.53 −0.18 −0.48
12 Intellectual property products 5.5 8.9 6.8 6.2 3.1 0.46 0.36 0.33 0.16
13 Residential 3.9 −17.8 −27.1 −25.1 −4.0 −0.93 −1.42 −1.20 −0.16
14 Change in private inventories 0.0 --- --- --- --- −1.91 −1.19 1.47 −2.14
15 Net exports of goods and services −3.0 --- --- --- --- 1.16 2.86 0.42 0.58
16 Exports 11.5 13.8 14.6 −3.7 7.8 1.51 1.65 −0.44 0.86
17 Goods 7.9 15.5 17.8 −7.4 12.3 1.18 1.38 −0.62 0.91
18 Services 3.6 9.9 7.5 5.0 −1.3 0.33 0.26 0.18 −0.05
19 Imports 14.5 2.2 −7.3 −5.5 2.0 −0.35 1.21 0.86 −0.28
20 Goods 11.9 −0.4 −8.6 −5.9 2.3 0.05 1.19 0.76 −0.27
21 Services 2.6 16.6 −0.8 −3.7 0.4 −0.41 0.02 0.10 −0.01
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 17.5 −1.6 3.7 3.8 5.0 −0.29 0.65 0.65 0.85
23 Federal 6.5 −3.4 3.7 5.8 6.0 −0.22 0.24 0.37 0.38
24 National defense 3.6 1.4 4.7 2.3 2.5 0.05 0.17 0.08 0.09
25 Nondefense 2.9 −9.2 2.5 10.6 10.5 −0.28 0.07 0.29 0.29
26 State and local 11.0 −0.6 3.7 2.6 4.4 −0.06 0.41 0.29 0.47
Addenda:
27 Gross domestic income (GDI)2 --- −0.8 2.8 −3.3 −1.8 --- --- --- ---
28 Average of GDP and GDI --- −0.7 3.0 −0.4 0.1 --- --- --- ---
29 Final sales of domestic product --- 1.3 4.5 1.1 4.2 --- --- --- ---
30 Goods 31.4 −3.0 7.3 5.9 −1.4 −0.96 2.28 1.83 −0.44
31 Services 60.4 3.1 3.9 2.4 3.5 1.83 2.30 1.44 2.06
32 Structures 8.2 −15.3 −14.6 −8.1 4.7 −1.44 −1.34 −0.70 0.38
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

Note. Percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) tables 1.1.1 and 1.2.1, contributions are from NIPA tables 1.1.2 and 1.2.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10 or are calculated from NIPA table 1.2.5.

The third estimate of GDP includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP. In the first quarter, private services-producing industries increased 2.6 percent, government increased 2.7 percent, and private goods-producing industries decreased 0.7 percent (chart 3 and table 2). Overall, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP (chart 4).

  • Within private services-producing industries, the increase was led by health care and social assistance, retail trade, real estate and rental and leasing, and accommodation and food services. Partly offsetting these increases was a decrease in finance and insurance.
  • The increase in government reflected increases in state and local government and federal government.
  • Within private goods-producing industries, decreases in both durable goods and nondurable goods manufacturing were partly offset by an increase in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting.
Chart 3. Real GDP by Sector: Percent Change from Preceding Period

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Chart 4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP by Industry Group, 2023:Q1

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Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Group
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 Gross domestic product (GDP)1 100.0 −0.6 3.2 2.6 2.0 −0.6 3.2 2.6 2.0
2 Private industries 88.4 −0.6 3.6 2.6 1.9 −0.57 3.17 2.34 1.69
3 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 1.1 −12.8 −1.7 1.7 41.9 −0.15 −0.02 0.02 0.40
4 Mining 1.5 −0.2 27.0 21.0 1.9 0.00 0.50 0.36 0.03
5 Utilities 1.7 1.0 −16.0 1.8 −3.9 0.02 −0.31 0.03 −0.07
6 Construction 4.0 −19.2 −17.8 −3.6 1.3 −0.84 −0.77 −0.14 0.05
7 Manufacturing 10.9 −8.5 0.5 4.5 −5.3 −0.97 0.06 0.49 −0.60
8 Durable goods 6.0 −4.1 −0.5 7.5 −6.0 −0.25 −0.03 0.44 −0.38
9 Nondurable Goods 4.9 −13.4 1.6 0.8 −4.5 −0.72 0.08 0.04 −0.23
10 Wholesale trade 6.3 −6.8 6.1 3.2 −1.7 −0.45 0.38 0.20 −0.11
11 Retail trade 5.8 1.4 6.8 8.1 10.2 0.08 0.39 0.46 0.57
12 Transporation and warehousing 3.2 2.4 10.9 5.1 3.3 0.07 0.33 0.16 0.11
13 Information 5.5 1.5 17.3 6.4 4.5 0.08 0.88 0.34 0.24
14 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 20.1 1.9 1.1 −3.7 −0.6 0.39 0.22 −0.75 −0.12
15 Finance and insurance 7.6 2.1 −2.7 −5.8 −5.5 0.17 −0.21 −0.46 −0.43
16 Real estate and rental and leasing 12.5 1.8 3.5 −2.4 2.5 0.22 0.43 −0.29 0.31
17 Professional and business services 13.2 4.2 5.7 6.3 1.2 0.54 0.72 0.80 0.16
18 Professional, scientific, and technical services 8.0 3.3 7.8 8.2 1.8 0.26 0.59 0.62 0.15
19 Management of companies and enterprises 1.8 8.1 4.6 11.3 −2.7 0.15 0.08 0.20 −0.05
20 Administrative and waste management services 3.3 4.1 1.4 −0.6 1.9 0.14 0.05 −0.02 0.06
21 Educational services, health care, and social assistance 8.5 2.7 5.5 4.8 7.4 0.23 0.45 0.40 0.61
22 Educational services 1.1 −4.1 5.6 4.9 0.1 −0.05 0.06 0.06 0.00
23 Health care and social assistance 7.4 3.8 5.4 4.8 8.6 0.27 0.39 0.34 0.61
24 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accomodation, and food services 4.4 10.6 7.3 −0.4 10.2 0.41 0.29 −0.02 0.42
25 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.2 19.2 26.1 5.4 14.9 0.18 0.25 0.06 0.16
26 Accommodation and food services 3.3 7.9 1.4 −2.4 8.5 0.23 0.04 −0.08 0.26
27 Other services, except government 2.1 1.2 2.5 0.1 −0.2 0.03 0.05 0.00 −0.01
28 Government 11.6 −0.2 0.6 2.1 2.7 −0.03 0.08 0.24 0.31
29 Federal 3.6 −0.5 −1.5 3.2 2.8 −0.02 −0.05 0.11 0.10
30 State and local 8.0 −0.1 1.6 1.5 2.6 −0.01 0.13 0.12 0.21
  Addenda:
31 Private goods-producing industries2 17.6 −10.4 −1.3 4.0 −0.7 −1.96 −0.23 0.72 −0.12
32 Private services-producing industries3 70.9 2.0 4.9 2.3 2.6 1.40 3.40 1.62 1.81
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. Consists of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting; mining; construction; and manufacturing.
  3. Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services; and other services, except government.

Note. Percent changes are from these GDP by industry tables: “Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product,” “Percent Changes in Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Value Added by Industry,” and “Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry.”

Real gross output—principally a measure of an industry's sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)—increased 2.7 percent in the first quarter (table 3 and chart 5). Private goods-producing industries increased 0.4 percent, private services-producing industries increased 3.4 percent, and government increased 3.7 percent.

Table 3. Real Gross Output by Industry Group
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent)
2022 2023
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 All industries 1.7 2.5 1.0 2.7
2 Private industries 1.8 2.6 0.7 2.6
3 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting −3.7 1.1 −2.0 15.1
4 Mining 6.2 9.4 −4.0 12.2
5 Utilities 7.1 −5.3 −4.5 −5.8
6 Construction −13.6 −10.8 −1.7 0.6
7 Manufacturing −0.8 3.9 4.9 −2.0
8 Durable goods 5.9 7.2 8.0 −6.2
9 Nondurable goods −7.1 0.6 1.7 2.7
10 Wholesale trade −2.2 −1.5 −5.2 −5.2
11 Retail trade 2.8 1.9 −1.7 5.2
12 Transporation and warehousing 10.1 5.4 −3.3 −4.3
13 Information 5.8 2.8 −0.2 5.0
14 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 0.1 3.7 −0.5 6.3
15 Finance and insurance 3.1 8.8 0.8 11.1
16 Real estate and rental and leasing −2.0 0.0 −1.5 2.8
17 Professional and business services 6.2 3.4 3.3 1.3
18 Professional, scientific, and technical services 5.4 7.7 7.2 0.0
19 Management of companies and enterprises 3.5 2.5 8.3 −3.8
20 Administrative and waste management services 9.1 −4.3 −6.6 6.7
21 Educational services, health care, and social assistance 1.5 3.4 1.5 9.7
22 Educational services 2.5 6.4 −1.6 5.0
23 Health care and social assistance 1.4 3.0 2.0 10.4
24 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accomodation, and food services 19.1 6.5 6.1 8.0
25 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 22.7 26.3 10.5 2.5
26 Accommodation and food services 18.2 1.6 4.8 9.6
27 Other services, except government −3.1 8.7 4.0 −2.7
28 Government 0.8 2.3 3.4 3.7
29 Federal 2.4 3.6 1.8 3.7
30 State and local 0.2 1.8 4.1 3.7
  Addenda:
31 Private goods-producing industries1 −3.0 1.2 2.4 0.4
32 Private services-producing industries2 3.6 3.0 0.1 3.4
  1. Consists of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting; mining; construction; and manufacturing.
  2. Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services; and other services, except government.

Note. Percent changes are from the table “Percent Changes in Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Gross Output by Industry.”

Chart 5. Real Gross Output by Sector: Percent Change from Preceding Period

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The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter after increasing 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4 and chart 6). Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter after increasing 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Prices for energy goods and services decreased 10.7 percent after decreasing 13.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 4.2 percent after increasing 4.1 percent.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 4.1 percent in the first quarter after increasing 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected increases in prices for both goods and services.

  • Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceuticals), food and beverages, and clothing and footwear. These increases were partly offset by decreases in gasoline and other energy goods (led by gasoline) as well as motor vehicles and parts (led by used light trucks).
  • Within services, price increases were widespread. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (led by housing), food services and accommodations (led by food services), and financial services and insurance (led by banking and other financial services). Other services (led by professional services and personal care and clothing services), transportation services (led by motor vehicle services), and recreation services (led by membership clubs, sports centers, parks, theaters, and museums) also increased.

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 4.9 percent in the first quarter after increasing 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

Table 4. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index numbers (2012=100)]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices (percentage points)
2022 2023 2022 2023
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 Gross domestic purchases1 8.5 4.8 3.6 3.8 8.5 4.8 3.6 3.8
2 Personal consumption expenditures 7.3 4.3 3.7 4.1 4.81 2.85 2.46 2.71
3 Goods 10.6 2.7 −0.5 0.7 2.37 0.64 −0.10 0.17
4 Durable goods 2.4 3.5 −1.5 −1.0 0.22 0.29 −0.12 −0.07
5 Nondurable goods 15.7 2.3 0.1 1.7 2.15 0.35 0.02 0.25
6 Services 5.6 5.2 6.0 5.9 2.44 2.22 2.56 2.54
7 Gross private domestic investment 9.9 7.6 3.3 4.5 1.76 1.30 0.57 0.76
8 Fixed investment 10.3 7.7 4.0 4.9 1.72 1.28 0.67 0.81
9 Nonresidential 8.5 7.6 3.6 7.2 1.06 0.94 0.46 0.91
10 Structures 17.5 20.1 7.7 8.6 0.40 0.45 0.19 0.22
11 Equipment 9.2 5.9 6.1 7.6 0.45 0.29 0.31 0.37
12 Intellectual property products 3.9 3.7 −0.6 6.1 0.20 0.19 −0.03 0.32
13 Residential 15.2 8.1 5.1 −2.5 0.66 0.34 0.20 −0.10
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- --- 0.03 0.02 −0.10 −0.05
15 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 11.6 3.6 3.6 1.6 1.90 0.62 0.61 0.28
16 Federal 6.0 4.8 3.2 3.2 0.38 0.30 0.20 0.20
17 National defense 7.5 2.7 3.0 2.5 0.26 0.10 0.10 0.09
18 Nondefense 4.1 7.6 3.4 4.1 0.12 0.20 0.09 0.11
19 State and local 15.0 2.9 3.9 0.7 1.52 0.32 0.41 0.08
Addenda:
  Gross domestic purchases:                
20 Food 14.7 13.4 7.1 3.8 0.68 0.60 0.33 0.18
21 Energy goods and services 53.6 −13.1 −13.9 −10.7 1.37 −0.43 −0.46 −0.33
22 Excluding food and energy 6.9 5.0 4.1 4.2 6.41 4.59 3.77 3.90
  Personal consumption expenditures:                
23 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption 15.3 13.0 6.9 3.7 --- --- --- ---
24 Energy goods and services 52.7 −13.3 −12.8 −9.9 --- --- --- ---
25 Excluding food and energy 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.9 --- --- --- ---
26 Gross domestic product 9.0 4.4 3.9 4.1 --- --- --- ---
27 Exports of goods and services 20.0 −9.7 −6.1 0.2 --- --- --- ---
28 Imports of goods and services 13.2 −4.1 −5.5 −1.6 --- --- --- ---
  1. The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

Chart 6. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases

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Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and the capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) decreased $121.5 billion, or 4.1 percent at a quarterly rate, in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, profits decreased $60.5 billion, or 2.0 percent (table 5). In the first quarter, domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $9.4 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $102.9 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits (net) decreased $9.2 billion.

Table 5. Corporate Profits
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
  Current production measures:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj 2,818.1 131.6 −1.3 −60.5 −121.5 4.6 0.0 −2.0 −4.1
2 Domestic industries 2,359.1 106.2 14.3 −81.9 −112.3 4.4 0.6 −3.2 −4.5
3 Financial 394.2 −46.0 −1.8 −59.0 −9.4 −9.0 −0.4 −12.8 −2.3
4 Nonfinancial 1,964.9 152.2 16.1 −22.9 −102.9 7.9 0.8 −1.1 −5.0
5 Rest of the world 459.0 25.5 −15.5 21.4 −9.2 5.8 −3.4 4.8 −2.0
6 Receipts from the rest of the world 985.8 56.1 1.0 7.2 9.4 6.2 0.1 0.7 1.0
7 Less: Payments to the rest of the world 526.8 30.6 16.5 −14.2 18.6 6.4 3.3 −2.7 3.7
9 Less: Taxes on corporate income 488.7 −16.4 −21.6 7.3 24.4 −3.3 −4.5 1.6 5.3
10 Equals: Profits after tax 2,329.3 148.0 20.4 −67.8 −145.9 6.2 0.8 −2.7 −5.9
11 Net dividends 1,651.6 −3.1 −56.5 −30.1 −2.2 −0.2 −3.2 −1.8 −0.1
12 Undistributed profits from current production 677.7 151.2 76.9 −37.6 −143.7 24.0 9.8 −4.4 −17.5
13 Net cash flow with IVA 3,126.8 116.4 181.6 10.4 −19.2 4.1 6.1 0.3 −0.6
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Accounts tables 1.12 and 6.16D.

Industry profits (corporate profits by industry with IVA) decreased $29.7 billion, or 0.9 percent at a quarterly rate, in the first quarter after decreasing $49.8 billion, or 1.5 percent, in the fourth quarter (table 6 and chart 7). Domestic profits decreased $20.5 billion in the first quarter and primarily reflected decreases in other nonfinancial industries and wholesale trade.

Profits after tax (without IVA and CCAdj)—BEA's profits measure that is conceptually most like the profits for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index—decreased $33.3 billion in the first quarter after decreasing $169.5 billion in the fourth quarter.

Table 6. Corporate Profits by Industry
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
  Industry profits:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA 3,208.5 171.1 35.3 −49.8 −29.7 5.6 1.1 −1.5 −0.9
2 Domestic industries 2,749.5 145.6 50.8 −71.2 −20.5 5.5 1.8 −2.5 −0.7
3 Financial 499.4 −41.0 3.4 −58.3 1.8 −6.9 0.6 −10.5 0.4
4 Nonfinancial 2,250.0 186.6 47.4 −12.9 −22.4 9.1 2.1 −0.6 −1.0
5 Utilities 32.2 1.7 8.1 −8.2 4.4 6.5 29.1 −22.8 15.9
6 Manufacturing 657.4 68.7 18.9 28.6 −7.0 12.5 3.1 4.5 −1.1
7 Wholesale trade 215.4 −5.4 44.9 4.3 −18.6 −2.8 24.3 1.9 −8.0
8 Retail trade 340.1 10.2 4.6 9.8 18.3 3.4 1.5 3.1 5.7
9 Transportation and warehousing 113.5 35.0 −2.7 −7.2 −1.0 39.1 −2.2 −5.9 −0.8
10 Information 170.4 −9.9 0.6 9.1 8.9 −6.1 0.4 6.0 5.5
11 Other nonfinancial 721.1 86.3 −26.8 −49.4 −27.3 11.7 −3.3 −6.2 −3.6
12 Rest of the world 459.0 25.5 −15.5 21.4 −9.2 5.8 −3.4 4.8 −2.0
  Addenda:
13 Profits before tax (without IVA and CCAdj) 3,176.8 193.3 −173.9 −162.2 −8.9 5.8 −4.9 −4.8 −0.3
14 Profits after tax (without IVA and CCAdj) 2,688.0 209.7 −152.3 −169.5 −33.3 7.4 −5.0 −5.9 −1.2
15 IVA 31.7 −22.2 209.2 112.4 −20.8 --- --- --- ---
16 CCAdj −390.4 −39.4 −36.6 −10.6 −91.8 --- --- --- ---
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Accounts tables 1.12, 1.14, 1.15, and 6.16D.

Chart 7. Corporate Profits with Inventory Valuation Adjustment in 2023:Q1, Change from Preceding Quarter

[Click chart to expand]

In the third estimate of the first quarter, the growth rate in real GDP was revised up 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate (table 7). The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports were revised down.

  • Within exports, both goods and services were revised up. For goods, the leading contributor was exports of other goods. For services, upward revisions to travel, charges for the use of intellectual property, and transport were partly offset by a downward revision to other business services.
  • Within consumer spending, an upward revision to services was partly offset by a downward revision to goods. Within services, the leading contributor to the upward revision was health care (led by physician services). Within goods, the downward revision was led by food and beverages.
  • Within nonresidential fixed investment, downward revisions to intellectual property products and equipment were partly offset by an upward revision to structures. The downward revision to intellectual property products was led by software (mainly prepackaged software). The downward revision to equipment was led by information processing equipment (notably, computers and peripheral equipment). The upward revision to structures was led by manufacturing structures.
  • The downward revision to federal government spending primarily reflected updated estimates of transfers of military equipment and supplies.
  • Within imports, the downward revision was mainly to goods (led by consumer goods and nonautomotive capital goods).
Table 7. Second and Third Estimates for the First Quarter of 2023
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
Second estimate Third estimate Third estimate minus second estimate Second estimate Third estimate Third estimate minus second estimate
1 Gross domestic product (GDP)1 1.3 2.0 0.7 1.3 2.0 0.7
2 Personal consumption expenditures 3.8 4.2 0.4 2.52 2.79 0.27
3 Goods 6.3 6.0 −0.3 1.41 1.34 −0.07
4 Durable goods 16.4 16.3 −0.1 1.29 1.28 −0.01
5 Nondurable goods 0.9 0.5 −0.4 0.12 0.07 −0.05
6 Services 2.5 3.2 0.7 1.11 1.44 0.33
7 Gross private domestic investment −11.5 −11.9 −0.4 −2.14 −2.22 −0.08
8 Fixed investment −0.2 −0.4 −0.2 −0.03 −0.08 −0.05
9 Nonresidential 1.4 0.6 −0.8 0.18 0.08 −0.10
10 Structures 11.0 15.8 4.8 0.28 0.40 0.12
11 Equipment −7.0 −8.9 −1.9 −0.38 −0.48 −0.10
12 Intellectual property products 5.2 3.1 −2.1 0.28 0.16 −0.12
13 Residential −5.4 −4.0 1.4 −0.22 −0.16 0.06
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- −2.10 −2.14 −0.04
15 Net exports of goods and services --- --- --- 0.00 0.58 0.58
16 Exports 5.2 7.8 2.6 0.58 0.86 0.28
17 Goods 10.4 12.3 1.9 0.77 0.91 0.14
18 Services −5.3 −1.3 4.0 −0.20 −0.05 0.15
19 Imports 4.0 2.0 −2.0 −0.57 −0.28 0.29
20 Goods 4.8 2.3 −2.5 −0.56 −0.27 0.29
21 Services 0.5 0.4 −0.1 −0.01 −0.01 0.00
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 5.2 5.0 −0.2 0.89 0.85 −0.04
23 Federal 7.6 6.0 −1.6 0.48 0.38 −0.10
24 National defense 5.7 2.5 −3.2 0.20 0.09 −0.11
25 Nondefense 10.0 10.5 0.5 0.27 0.29 0.02
26 State and local 3.8 4.4 0.6 0.41 0.47 0.06
  Addenda:
27 Final sales of domestic product 3.4 4.2 0.8 --- --- ---
28 Gross domestic income (GDI)2 --- −1.8 --- --- --- ---
29 Average of GDP and GDI --- 0.1 --- --- --- ---
30 Gross domestic purchases price index 3.8 3.8 0.0 --- --- ---
31 GDP price index 4.2 4.1 −0.1 --- --- ---
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

 

  1. “Real” estimates are in chained (2012) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  2. In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”