GDP and the Economy
Advance Estimates for the Fourth Quarter of 2023
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.
Real GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2023 (from the 2022 annual level to the 2023 annual level), compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in 2022 (see “Real GDP for 2023”).
The increase in fourth-quarter real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2
- The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were food services and accommodations (led by food services) and health care (led by both hospitals and outpatient services). Within goods, the increase was led by other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and recreational goods and vehicles (led by computer software).
- Within exports, both goods and services increased. The increase in goods was led by petroleum. The increase in services was led by financial services.
- The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected increases in state and local government employee compensation and in gross investment in structures.
- The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in intellectual property products (led by software) and structures (led by manufacturing structures). Equipment also contributed. Increases in information, industrial, and other equipment were mostly offset by a decrease in transportation equipment.
- The increase in federal government spending reflected an increase in nondefense spending. The increase in nondefense spending primarily reflected increases in federal government employee compensation.
- Within private inventory investment, the increase primarily reflected increases in wholesale trade and other industries that were partly offset by decreases in manufacturing and retail trade industries.
- The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in new single-family construction. Partly offsetting this increase was a decrease in brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs.
- Within imports, both services and goods increased. Within services, the leading contributor to the increase was travel. Within goods, the increase was led by computers.
Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected slowdowns in inventory investment, federal government spending, residential investment, and consumer spending. Imports decelerated.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which measures private demand in the domestic economy and is derived as the sum of consumer spending and private fixed investment, increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 3.0 percent in the third quarter.
| Line | Series | Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) |
Change from preceding period (percent) |
Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ||||||||||
| Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||
| 1 | Gross domestic product (GDP)1 | 100.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| 2 | Personal consumption expenditures | 67.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.54 | 0.55 | 2.11 | 1.91 |
| 3 | Goods | 22.4 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 1.14 | 0.11 | 1.09 | 0.85 |
| 4 | Durable goods | 7.9 | 14.0 | −0.3 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 1.07 | −0.03 | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| 5 | Nondurable goods | 14.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| 6 | Services | 45.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.40 | 0.44 | 1.02 | 1.06 |
| 7 | Gross private domestic investment | 17.8 | −9.0 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 2.1 | −1.69 | 0.90 | 1.74 | 0.38 |
| 8 | Fixed investment | 17.4 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.53 | 0.90 | 0.46 | 0.31 |
| 9 | Nonresidential | 13.5 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.76 | 0.98 | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| 10 | Structures | 3.1 | 30.3 | 16.1 | 11.2 | 3.2 | 0.77 | 0.46 | 0.33 | 0.10 |
| 11 | Equipment | 5.0 | −4.1 | 7.7 | −4.4 | 1.0 | −0.21 | 0.38 | −0.22 | 0.05 |
| 12 | Intellectual property products | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| 13 | Residential | 3.9 | −5.3 | −2.2 | 6.7 | 1.1 | −0.22 | −0.09 | 0.26 | 0.04 |
| 14 | Change in private inventories | 0.4 | --- | --- | --- | --- | −2.22 | 0.00 | 1.27 | 0.07 |
| 15 | Net exports of goods and services | −2.8 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 0.58 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.43 |
| 16 | Exports | 10.9 | 6.8 | −9.3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 0.76 | −1.09 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| 17 | Goods | 7.3 | 12.0 | −16.0 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 0.89 | −1.31 | 0.55 | 0.34 |
| 18 | Services | 3.7 | −3.5 | 6.2 | 1.0 | 9.5 | −0.13 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.34 |
| 19 | Imports | 13.7 | 1.3 | −7.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | −0.18 | 1.13 | −0.56 | −0.25 |
| 20 | Goods | 11.2 | 1.9 | −6.5 | 5.9 | 0.8 | −0.22 | 0.78 | −0.64 | −0.08 |
| 21 | Services | 2.6 | −1.2 | −12.2 | −2.8 | 6.8 | 0.04 | 0.35 | 0.08 | −0.17 |
| 22 | Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | 17.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 0.82 | 0.57 | 0.99 | 0.56 |
| 23 | Federal | 6.5 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.33 | 0.07 | 0.45 | 0.16 |
| 24 | National defense | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 8.4 | 0.9 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.30 | 0.03 |
| 25 | Nondefense | 2.9 | 9.5 | −0.4 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 0.26 | −0.01 | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| 26 | State and local | 10.9 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 0.49 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.40 |
| Addenda: | ||||||||||
| 27 | Gross domestic income (GDI)2 | --- | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 28 | Average of GDP and GDI | --- | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3.2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 29 | Final sales of domestic product | --- | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 | Goods | 31.3 | −1.3 | 0.9 | 7.3 | 4.8 | −0.40 | 0.29 | 2.30 | 1.49 |
| 31 | Services | 60.0 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.92 | 1.13 | 1.73 | 1.48 |
| 32 | Structures | 8.7 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.83 | 0.31 |
- The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
- GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 2.9 percent in the third quarter (table 2 and chart 3).
Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 1.9 percent in the third quarter. Prices for energy goods and services decreased 5.4 percent after increasing 16.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.1 percent after increasing 2.5 percent.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 2.6 percent in the third quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for services that was partly offset by a decrease in prices for goods.
- Within services, price increases were widespread. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (mainly accounted for by housing) and health care (led by hospitals).
- Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were gasoline and other energy goods (led by motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids) and recreational goods and vehicles (led by information processing equipment) that were partly offset by increases in other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products) and food and beverages.
Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, the same increase as the third quarter.
| Line | Series | Change from preceding period (percent) |
Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices (percentage points) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | |||||||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||
| 1 | Gross domestic purchases1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 2 | Personal consumption expenditures | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 2.73 | 1.63 | 1.71 | 1.09 |
| 3 | Goods | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.9 | −1.9 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 0.20 | −0.42 |
| 4 | Durable goods | −0.9 | 0.1 | −4.4 | −3.5 | −0.07 | 0.01 | −0.35 | −0.27 |
| 5 | Nondurable goods | 1.6 | 0.3 | 3.9 | −1.0 | 0.23 | 0.04 | 0.55 | −0.14 |
| 6 | Services | 6.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.57 | 1.58 | 1.51 | 1.51 |
| 7 | Gross private domestic investment | 3.2 | −0.1 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 0.56 | −0.02 | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| 8 | Fixed investment | 4.2 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 0.71 | −0.01 | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| 9 | Nonresidential | 6.4 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 0.81 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| 10 | Structures | 7.2 | 0.9 | −2.3 | 2.5 | 0.20 | 0.03 | −0.07 | 0.08 |
| 11 | Equipment | 7.9 | −1.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.38 | −0.06 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| 12 | Intellectual property products | 4.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| 13 | Residential | −2.6 | −0.9 | 4.8 | 5.5 | −0.10 | −0.03 | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| 14 | Change in private inventories | --- | --- | --- | --- | −0.15 | −0.01 | 0.00 | −0.03 |
| 15 | Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | 1.5 | −1.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.26 | −0.18 | 0.84 | 0.33 |
| 16 | Federal | 4.1 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 0.26 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| 17 | National defense | 3.3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| 18 | Nondefense | 5.2 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| 19 | State and local | 0.0 | −2.9 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 0.00 | −0.31 | 0.59 | 0.09 |
| Addenda: | |||||||||
| Gross domestic purchases: | |||||||||
| 20 | Food | 3.8 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| 21 | Energy goods and services | −11.4 | −15.6 | 16.1 | −5.4 | −0.36 | −0.46 | 0.42 | −0.16 |
| 22 | Excluding food and energy | 4.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.72 | 1.90 | 2.34 | 1.95 |
| Personal consumption expenditures: | |||||||||
| 23 | Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption | 3.8 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 24 | Energy goods and services | −9.8 | −15.6 | 16.2 | −5.4 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25 | Excluding food and energy | 5.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 26 | Gross domestic product | 3.9 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 27 | Exports of goods and services | 0.1 | −3.9 | 4.0 | −3.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 28 | Imports of goods and services | −1.3 | −4.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
- The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.
Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $224.8 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $196.2 billion in the third quarter (table 3). The increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation, personal income receipts on assets, and proprietors' income that were partly offset by a decrease in personal current transfer receipts.
Personal current taxes increased $13.2 billion in the fourth quarter after increasing $52.6 billion in the third quarter.
Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased $211.7 billion, or 4.2 percent, in the fourth quarter after increasing $143.5 billion, or 2.9 percent, in the third quarter. Personal outlays increased $244.0 billion after increasing $319.9 billion.
Real DPI (chart 4) increased 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 0.3 percent in the third quarter. Current-dollar DPI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for consumer spending, which increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter after increasing 2.6 percent in the third quarter.
The personal saving rate (chart 5)—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 4.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 4.2 percent in the third quarter.
| Line | Series | Level | Change from preceding period | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | |||||||
| Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | ||
| 1 | Personal income | 23,064.2 | 23,289.0 | 369.8 | 224.1 | 196.2 | 224.8 |
| 2 | Compensation of employees | 14,344.2 | 14,503.7 | 290.2 | 188.9 | 190.0 | 159.5 |
| 3 | Wages and salaries | 11,894.5 | 12,027.9 | 248.4 | 167.8 | 161.3 | 133.3 |
| 4 | Private industries | 10,141.2 | 10,238.6 | 218.8 | 142.7 | 118.8 | 97.4 |
| 5 | Goods-producing industries | 1,864.5 | 1,886.3 | 33.9 | 27.6 | 27.1 | 21.8 |
| 6 | Manufacturing | 1,094.9 | 1,104.5 | 16.7 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 9.6 |
| 7 | Services-producing industries | 8,276.7 | 8,352.3 | 184.9 | 115.2 | 91.8 | 75.6 |
| 8 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 1,815.0 | 1,824.1 | 52.3 | 8.3 | 16.5 | 9.1 |
| 9 | Other services-producing industries | 6,461.7 | 6,528.2 | 132.7 | 106.9 | 75.2 | 66.5 |
| 10 | Government | 1,753.3 | 1,789.3 | 29.6 | 25.1 | 42.4 | 35.9 |
| 11 | Supplements to wages and salaries | 2,449.6 | 2,475.8 | 41.8 | 21.1 | 28.8 | 26.2 |
| 12 | Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj | 1,859.6 | 1,886.7 | 2.1 | −3.3 | 35.5 | 27.1 |
| 13 | Farm | 49.9 | 42.9 | −12.7 | −13.0 | −8.3 | −7.0 |
| 14 | Nonfarm | 1,809.6 | 1,843.8 | 14.8 | 9.7 | 43.7 | 34.2 |
| 15 | Rental income of persons with CCAdj | 974.4 | 986.9 | 38.3 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 12.5 |
| 16 | Personal income receipts on assets | 3,606.5 | 3,669.1 | 51.7 | 25.6 | 3.9 | 62.6 |
| 17 | Personal interest income | 1,776.4 | 1,815.5 | 37.7 | 10.4 | 21.6 | 39.1 |
| 18 | Personal dividend income | 1,830.2 | 1,853.6 | 14.0 | 15.2 | −17.6 | 23.4 |
| 19 | Personal current transfer receipts | 4,093.7 | 4,074.9 | 28.7 | 17.7 | −26.5 | −18.8 |
| 20 | Government social benefits to persons | 3,987.8 | 3,967.3 | 26.6 | 15.8 | −29.5 | −20.4 |
| 21 | Social security | 1,361.3 | 1,374.4 | 114.1 | 13.8 | 7.5 | 13.2 |
| 22 | Medicare | 946.3 | 951.3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| 23 | Medicaid | 880.6 | 863.3 | 43.1 | 39.9 | −30.8 | −17.3 |
| 24 | Unemployment insurance | 21.0 | 22.7 | −0.2 | 0.3 | −1.3 | 1.7 |
| 25 | Veterans' benefits | 172.8 | 173.6 | −0.8 | −0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| 26 | Other | 605.7 | 582.0 | −133.6 | −41.7 | −9.6 | −23.7 |
| 27 | Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) | 105.9 | 107.5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 28 | Less: Contributions for government social insurance | 1,814.1 | 1,832.3 | 41.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 18.2 |
| 29 | Less: Personal current taxes | 2,756.5 | 2,769.6 | −332.0 | −59.8 | 52.6 | 13.2 |
| 30 | Equals: Disposable personal income | 20,307.7 | 20,519.4 | 701.8 | 284.0 | 143.5 | 211.7 |
| 31 | Less: Personal outlays | 19,456.5 | 19,700.5 | 376.0 | 204.6 | 319.9 | 244.0 |
| 32 | Personal consumption expenditures | 18,679.5 | 18,888.1 | 352.5 | 149.4 | 260.5 | 208.6 |
| 33 | Personal interest payments1 | 530.6 | 563.8 | 24.5 | 54.9 | 55.9 | 33.1 |
| 34 | Personal current transfer payments | 246.4 | 248.6 | −1.0 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 35 | Equals: Personal saving | 851.2 | 818.9 | 325.8 | 79.3 | −176.3 | −32.3 |
| 36 | Personal saving as a percentage of DPI | 4.2 | 4.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
- CCAdj
- Capital consumption adjustment
- DPI
- Disposable personal income
- IVA
- Inventory valuation adjustment
- Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons.
Real GDP increased 2.5 percent in 2023 (from the 2022 annual level to the 2023 annual level), compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in 2022. The increase in real GDP in 2023 primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports, and federal government spending. These increases were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased (table 4 and chart 6).
- The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributor to the increase was health care (both outpatient services and hospitals). Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were recreational goods and vehicles, other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products), and motor vehicles and parts.
- The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in structures and intellectual property products (mainly software) that were partly offset by a decrease in equipment (mainly computers and peripheral equipment).
- The increase in state and local government spending reflected increases in gross investment in structures and in compensation of state and local government employees.
- The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods (mainly other exports of goods and automotive vehicles, engines, and parts) and services (led by travel).
- The increase in federal government spending reflected increases in both nondefense (led by lower sales of crude oil) and defense spending (led by services).
- The decrease in residential fixed investment reflected decreases in new single-family housing construction and brokers' commissions.
- The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in wholesale trade industries.
- Within imports, the decrease primarily reflected a decrease in goods (mainly durable consumer goods, except food and automotive).
| Line | Series | Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) |
Change from preceding period (percent) |
Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | |||
| 1 | Gross domestic product (GDP)1 | 100.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.5 | |
| 2 | Personal consumption expenditures | 67.9 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.72 | 1.49 | |
| 3 | Goods | 22.6 | 0.3 | 2.1 | 0.07 | 0.47 | |
| 4 | Durable goods | 8.0 | −0.3 | 4.3 | −0.02 | 0.34 | |
| 5 | Nondurable goods | 14.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.09 | 0.13 | |
| 6 | Services | 45.2 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.65 | 1.02 | |
| 7 | Gross private domestic investment | 17.7 | 4.8 | −1.2 | 0.86 | −0.21 | |
| 8 | Fixed investment | 17.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.24 | 0.09 | |
| 9 | Nonresidential | 13.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 0.68 | 0.58 | |
| 10 | Structures | 3.1 | −2.1 | 12.7 | −0.06 | 0.36 | |
| 11 | Equipment | 5.1 | 5.2 | −0.1 | 0.26 | −0.01 | |
| 12 | Intellectual property products | 5.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 0.48 | 0.23 | |
| 13 | Residential | 3.9 | −9.0 | −10.7 | −0.44 | −0.49 | |
| 14 | Change in private inventories | 0.2 | --- | --- | 0.62 | −0.31 | |
| 15 | Net exports of goods and services | −2.9 | --- | --- | −0.48 | 0.58 | |
| 16 | Exports | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.76 | 0.32 | |
| 17 | Goods | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.44 | 0.21 | |
| 18 | Services | 3.7 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.33 | 0.11 | |
| 19 | Imports | 14.0 | 8.6 | −1.7 | −1.24 | 0.26 | |
| 20 | Goods | 11.4 | 6.8 | −1.7 | −0.82 | 0.21 | |
| 21 | Services | 2.6 | 17.5 | −1.6 | −0.42 | 0.05 | |
| 22 | Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | 17.3 | −0.9 | 4.0 | −0.16 | 0.68 | |
| 23 | Federal | 6.5 | −2.8 | 4.2 | −0.19 | 0.27 | |
| 24 | National defense | 3.6 | −2.8 | 3.5 | −0.11 | 0.12 | |
| 25 | Nondefense | 2.8 | −2.9 | 5.2 | −0.08 | 0.14 | |
| 26 | State and local | 10.9 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 0.03 | 0.42 | |
| Addenda: | |||||||
| 27 | Gross domestic income (GDI)2 | --- | 2.1 | --- | --- | --- | |
| 28 | Average of GDP and GDI | --- | 2.0 | --- | --- | --- | |
- The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
- GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP. Not estimated with the Q4 advance or second estimates.
- “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
- In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”
