GDP and the Economy

Third Estimates for the Third Quarter of 2023

January 03, 2024

Download PDF

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, according to the “third” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

[View larger chart]
Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2023:Q3

[View larger chart]

The increase in third-quarter real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2

  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were recreational goods and vehicles as well as other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products). Within services, the leading contributors were housing and utilities, food services and accommodations, and health care.
  • The increase in inventory investment primarily reflected increases in manufacturing, wholesale trade, and retail trade industries.
  • Within exports, both goods and services increased. The increase in goods was led by capital goods, except automotive; automotive vehicles, engines, and parts; and nondurable consumer goods, except food and automotive. Partly offsetting these increases was a decrease in other exports of goods. The increase in services was led by travel and was partly offset by decreases in other business services and charges for the use of intellectual property.
  • The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected increases in gross investment in structures and state and local government employee compensation.
  • The increase in federal government spending reflected increases in both defense and nondefense spending.
    • The increase in defense spending was led by spending on services.
    • The increase in nondefense spending primarily reflected lower sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, based on data from the U.S. Department of Energy. Within the National Economic Accounts, sales are deducted from government consumption expenditures; therefore, a decrease in sales results in a corresponding increase in consumption expenditures. Because the oil sold by the government enters private inventories, there is no direct net effect on GDP.
  • The increase in residential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in new single-family construction. Partly offsetting this increase was a decrease in brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs.
  • The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in structures and intellectual property products that were partly offset by a decrease in equipment. The increase in structures was led by manufacturing structures. The increase in intellectual property products reflected an increase in software that was partly offset by a decrease in research and development. The decrease in equipment was led by information processing equipment (mainly computers and peripherals equipment).
  • Within imports, goods increased while services decreased. Within goods, the increase was led by automotive vehicles, engines, and parts; nondurable consumer goods, except food and automotive; and other imports of goods. Partly offsetting these increases was a decrease in industrial supplies and materials (mainly durable goods). Within services, the leading contributor to the decrease was other business services that was partly offset by an increase in travel.

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and accelerations in consumer spending and private inventory investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. Imports turned up.

Real gross domestic income (GDI)—the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP—increased 1.5 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, after increasing 0.5 percent in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI—a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI—increased 3.2 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, after increasing 1.3 percent in second quarter.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 Gross domestic product (GDP)1 100.0 2.6 2.2 2.1 4.9 2.6 2.2 2.1 4.9
2 Personal consumption expenditures 67.7 1.2 3.8 0.8 3.1 0.79 2.54 0.55 2.11
3 Goods 22.6 0.0 5.1 0.5 4.9 −0.01 1.14 0.11 1.09
4 Durable goods 8.0 −1.0 14.0 −0.3 6.7 −0.08 1.07 −0.03 0.53
5 Nondurable goods 14.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 3.9 0.07 0.07 0.14 0.56
6 Services 45.1 1.8 3.1 1.0 2.2 0.80 1.40 0.44 1.02
7 Gross private domestic investment 17.8 3.4 −9.0 5.2 10.0 0.62 −1.69 0.90 1.74
8 Fixed investment 17.4 −5.4 3.1 5.2 2.6 −0.99 0.53 0.90 0.46
9 Nonresidential 13.5 1.7 5.7 7.4 1.4 0.24 0.76 0.98 0.21
10 Structures 3.1 6.5 30.3 16.1 11.2 0.17 0.77 0.46 0.33
11 Equipment 5.0 −5.0 −4.1 7.7 −4.4 −0.26 −0.21 0.38 −0.22
12 Intellectual property products 5.4 6.1 3.8 2.7 1.8 0.32 0.20 0.15 0.10
13 Residential 3.9 −24.9 −5.3 −2.2 6.7 −1.23 −0.22 −0.09 0.26
14 Change in private inventories 0.4 --- --- --- --- 1.61 −2.22 0.00 1.27
15 Net exports of goods and services −2.8 --- --- --- --- 0.26 0.58 0.04 0.03
16 Exports 11.0 −3.5 6.8 −9.3 5.4 −0.41 0.76 −1.09 0.59
17 Goods 7.3 −6.3 12.0 −16.0 7.7 −0.52 0.89 −1.31 0.55
18 Services 3.6 3.1 −3.5 6.2 1.0 0.11 −0.13 0.22 0.04
19 Imports 13.8 −4.3 1.3 −7.6 4.2 0.66 −0.18 1.13 −0.56
20 Goods 11.3 −4.4 1.9 −6.5 5.9 0.55 −0.22 0.78 −0.64
21 Services 2.5 −3.9 −1.2 −12.2 −2.8 0.11 0.04 0.35 0.08
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 17.4 5.3 4.8 3.3 5.8 0.90 0.82 0.57 0.99
23 Federal 6.5 9.8 5.2 1.1 7.1 0.59 0.33 0.07 0.45
24 National defense 3.7 7.7 1.9 2.3 8.4 0.27 0.07 0.08 0.30
25 Nondefense 2.8 12.6 9.5 −0.4 5.5 0.32 0.26 −0.01 0.15
26 State and local 10.9 2.8 4.6 4.7 5.0 0.31 0.49 0.50 0.53
Addenda:
27 Gross domestic income (GDI)2 --- −3.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 --- --- --- ---
28 Average of GDP and GDI --- −0.3 1.4 1.3 3.2 --- --- --- ---
29 Final sales of domestic product --- 1.0 4.6 2.1 3.6 --- --- --- ---
30 Goods 31.5 6.2 −1.3 0.9 7.3 1.95 −0.40 0.29 2.30
31 Services 59.9 2.5 3.2 1.9 2.9 1.48 1.92 1.13 1.73
32 Structures 8.6 −9.6 8.9 7.7 10.0 −0.86 0.72 0.63 0.83
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

Note. Percent changes are from National Income and Product Account (NIPA) tables 1.1.1 and 1.2.1, contributions are from NIPA tables 1.1.2 and 1.2.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10 or are calculated from NIPA table 1.2.5.

The third estimate of GDP includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP. In the third quarter, private goods-producing industries increased 10.2 percent, private services-producing industries increased 4.1 percent, and government increased 2.0 percent (chart 3 and table 2). Overall, 14 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP (chart 4).

  • Within private goods-producing industries, the increase was led by nondurable goods manufacturing (led by chemical products) and construction.
  • Within private services-producing industries, the increase was led by retail trade, information, and finance and insurance. Partly offsetting these increases was a decrease in utilities.
  • The increase in government reflected an increase in state and local government that was partly offset by a decrease in federal government.
Chart 3. Real GDP by Sector: Percent Change from Preceding Period

[View larger chart]
Chart 4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP by Industry Group, 2023:Q3

[View larger chart]
Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry Group
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 Gross domestic product (GDP)1 100.0 2.6 2.2 2.1 4.9 2.6 2.2 2.1 4.9
2 Private industries 88.7 2.7 2.4 2.2 5.2 2.42 2.09 1.96 4.63
3 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.9 6.6 27.8 3.6 −5.9 0.07 0.26 0.03 −0.06
4 Mining 1.4 42.7 11.9 29.1 12.1 0.63 0.17 0.35 0.16
5 Utilities 1.6 18.7 −3.1 60.9 −27.2 0.27 −0.05 0.77 −0.50
6 Construction 4.4 −0.1 3.3 5.5 15.8 −0.03 0.14 0.23 0.65
7 Manufacturing 10.3 2.5 −9.1 6.5 9.2 0.22 −0.98 0.64 0.92
8 Durable goods 5.6 3.8 −4.7 6.4 4.0 0.16 −0.26 0.35 0.22
9 Nondurable Goods 4.7 1.0 −14.0 6.6 15.9 0.06 −0.72 0.30 0.70
10 Wholesale trade 5.9 1.4 −2.3 −5.2 −2.5 0.12 −0.14 −0.32 −0.15
11 Retail trade 6.4 13.4 11.5 −2.8 23.4 0.80 0.69 −0.18 1.36
12 Transporation and warehousing 3.5 0.9 6.0 7.7 4.0 0.07 0.21 0.27 0.14
13 Information 5.4 7.8 4.4 2.2 14.6 0.40 0.23 0.12 0.75
14 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 20.7 −3.5 0.3 −0.1 4.0 −0.72 0.06 −0.02 0.83
15 Finance and insurance 7.3 −11.2 −1.3 −0.9 6.1 −0.87 −0.09 −0.06 0.44
16 Real estate and rental and leasing 13.4 1.0 1.2 0.3 2.9 0.14 0.16 0.04 0.39
17 Professional and business services 12.9 4.3 1.2 2.1 2.9 0.54 0.15 0.27 0.38
18 Professional, scientific, and technical services 8.0 6.2 3.6 6.0 4.0 0.48 0.28 0.46 0.32
19 Management of companies and enterprises 1.9 4.2 −2.3 −1.1 6.2 0.08 −0.04 −0.02 0.11
20 Administrative and waste management services 3.1 −0.4 −2.5 −5.2 −1.7 −0.02 −0.08 −0.17 −0.05
21 Educational services, health care, and social assistance 8.6 2.3 10.9 1.4 3.2 0.19 0.88 0.12 0.27
22 Educational services 1.1 2.7 5.9 −1.9 −0.6 0.03 0.07 −0.02 −0.01
23 Health care and social assistance 7.4 2.2 11.8 2.0 3.8 0.16 0.82 0.14 0.28
24 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accomodation, and food services 4.5 −3.2 12.3 −4.6 −0.5 −0.13 0.52 −0.21 −0.02
25 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.1 7.4 9.3 4.8 −6.7 0.08 0.10 0.05 −0.08
26 Accommodation and food services 3.3 −6.6 13.4 −7.7 1.8 −0.21 0.41 −0.27 0.06
27 Other services, except government 2.2 0.3 −2.5 −5.8 −5.2 0.00 −0.06 −0.13 −0.12
28 Government 11.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 2.0 0.16 0.16 0.11 0.24
29 Federal 3.6 2.1 1.7 3.9 −0.7 0.07 0.06 0.14 −0.02
30 State and local 7.7 1.1 1.2 −0.3 3.3 0.09 0.10 −0.02 0.26
  Addenda:
31 Private goods-producing industries2 17.1 5.4 −2.4 7.7 10.2 0.88 −0.41 1.26 1.68
32 Private services-producing industries3 71.6 2.1 3.5 1.0 4.1 1.54 2.50 0.69 2.95
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. Consists of agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining; construction; and manufacturing.
  3. Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services; and other services, except government.

Note. Percent changes are from these GDP by industry tables: “Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product,” “Percent Changes in Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Value Added by Industry,” and “Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry.”

Real gross output—principally a measure of an industry's sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)—increased 3.5 percent in the third quarter (table 3 and chart 5). Private goods-producing industries increased 4.0 percent, private services-producing industries increased 3.3 percent, and government increased 3.3 percent. Overall, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.

Table 3. Real Gross Output by Industry Group
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent)
2022 2023
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 All industries −0.1 3.6 1.4 3.5
2 Private industries −0.4 3.7 1.3 3.5
3 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.5 12.0 −1.0 −1.3
4 Mining −3.2 8.0 −7.3 1.3
5 Utilities −6.3 −5.9 2.8 10.2
6 Construction −4.1 7.1 7.3 14.7
7 Manufacturing 3.0 −0.9 3.9 1.6
8 Durable goods 7.3 −2.8 8.0 0.1
9 Nondurable goods −0.9 1.0 0.0 3.1
10 Wholesale trade −7.6 −5.4 −8.9 −1.2
11 Retail trade 1.0 5.8 −1.9 12.1
12 Transporation and warehousing −6.4 −3.3 −0.3 1.9
13 Information −0.3 6.1 1.7 8.4
14 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing −2.2 7.3 5.4 4.3
15 Finance and insurance −0.5 16.7 11.3 8.3
16 Real estate and rental and leasing −3.4 1.2 1.3 1.6
17 Professional and business services 2.6 2.1 0.4 −0.4
18 Professional, scientific, and technical services 7.1 1.6 0.8 −0.5
19 Management of companies and enterprises 1.7 −3.9 3.3 7.9
20 Administrative and waste management services −5.6 6.4 −1.9 −4.2
21 Educational services, health care, and social assistance 1.6 11.2 2.8 2.9
22 Educational services −1.4 5.8 2.8 3.1
23 Health care and social assistance 2.0 11.9 2.8 2.9
24 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accomodation, and food services 4.0 7.4 −5.4 3.6
25 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 11.8 0.4 −1.4 −8.8
26 Accommodation and food services 1.7 9.7 −6.6 7.7
27 Other services, except government 3.7 0.3 −2.7 −8.4
28 Government 1.7 2.6 1.8 3.3
29 Federal 1.1 2.5 1.0 3.4
30 State and local 1.9 2.7 2.1 3.3
  Addenda:
31 Private goods-producing industries1 0.9 2.0 3.5 4.0
32 Private services-producing industries2 −0.8 4.3 0.6 3.3
  1. Consists of agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining; construction; and manufacturing.
  2. Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services; and other services, except government.

Note. Percent changes are from the table Percent Changes in Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Gross Output by Industry, which is available through BEA's Interactive Data Application.

Chart 5. Real Gross Output by Sector: Percent Change from Preceding Period

[View larger chart]

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) featured measure of inflation in the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter after increasing 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4 and chart 6).

Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 1.9 percent in the third quarter after increasing 0.1 percent in the second quarter. Prices for energy goods and services increased 16.1 percent after decreasing 15.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.5 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.6 percent in the third quarter after increasing 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected increases in prices for both services and goods.

  • Within services, price increases were widespread. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (mainly accounted for by housing), health care (led by outpatient services), and financial services and insurance (led by financial service charges, fees, and commissions).
  • Within goods, the leading contributor to the increase was gasoline and other energy goods (led by motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids) that was partly offset by a decrease in recreational goods and vehicles (led by video, audio, photographic, and information processing equipment and media).

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter after increasing 3.7 percent in the second quarter.

Table 4. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index numbers (2017=100)]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices
(percentage points)
2022 2023 2022 2023
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 Gross domestic purchases1 3.8 3.6 1.4 2.9 3.8 3.6 1.4 2.9
2 Personal consumption expenditures 4.1 4.2 2.5 2.6 2.72 2.73 1.63 1.71
3 Goods 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.04 0.16 0.05 0.20
4 Durable goods −1.6 −0.9 0.1 −4.4 −0.13 −0.07 0.01 −0.35
5 Nondurable goods 1.0 1.6 0.3 3.9 0.16 0.23 0.04 0.55
6 Services 6.3 6.0 3.6 3.5 2.69 2.57 1.58 1.51
7 Gross private domestic investment 2.8 3.2 −0.1 1.7 0.49 0.56 −0.02 0.30
8 Fixed investment 3.6 4.2 0.0 1.7 0.61 0.71 −0.01 0.30
9 Nonresidential 3.2 6.4 0.2 0.9 0.41 0.81 0.03 0.12
10 Structures 7.0 7.2 0.9 −2.3 0.18 0.20 0.03 −0.07
11 Equipment 5.9 7.9 −1.1 2.3 0.29 0.38 −0.06 0.11
12 Intellectual property products −1.1 4.5 1.1 1.4 −0.06 0.24 0.06 0.08
13 Residential 4.9 −2.6 −0.9 4.8 0.20 −0.10 −0.03 0.18
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- --- −0.12 −0.15 −0.01 0.00
15 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 3.2 1.5 −1.1 5.1 0.54 0.26 −0.18 0.84
16 Federal 4.1 4.1 2.1 4.0 0.25 0.26 0.13 0.25
17 National defense 3.6 3.3 1.9 4.2 0.13 0.12 0.07 0.15
18 Nondefense 4.7 5.2 2.3 3.7 0.13 0.14 0.06 0.10
19 State and local 2.7 0.0 −2.9 5.7 0.29 0.00 −0.31 0.59
Addenda:
  Gross domestic purchases:                
20 Food 7.2 3.8 0.1 1.9 0.37 0.20 0.00 0.10
21 Energy goods and services −11.9 −11.4 −15.6 16.1 −0.40 −0.36 −0.46 0.42
22 Excluding food and energy 4.1 4.1 2.1 2.5 3.78 3.72 1.90 2.34
  Personal consumption expenditures:                
23 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption 7.1 3.8 0.0 1.9 --- --- --- ---
24 Energy goods and services −10.3 −9.8 −15.6 16.2 --- --- --- ---
25 Excluding food and energy 4.7 5.0 3.7 2.0 --- --- --- ---
26 Gross domestic product 3.9 3.9 1.7 3.3 --- --- --- ---
27 Exports of goods and services −5.6 0.1 −3.9 4.0 --- --- --- ---
28 Imports of goods and services −4.3 −1.3 −4.8 0.3 --- --- --- ---
  1. The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

Note. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7; percent changes for PCE for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

Chart 6. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases

[View larger chart]

Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment and the capital consumption adjustment) increased $108.7 billion, or 3.4 percent at a quarterly rate, in the third quarter. In the second quarter, profits increased $6.9 billion, or 0.2 percent (table 5). Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $9.0 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $90.8 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits (net) increased $8.8 billion in the third quarter.

Table 5. Corporate Profits
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
  Current production measures:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj 3,280.7 −50.9 −83.3 6.9 108.7 −1.5 −2.6 0.2 3.4
2 Domestic industries 2,757.8 −60.5 −75.3 −15.2 99.9 −2.2 −2.7 −0.6 3.8
3 Financial 452.6 −46.6 17.3 −54.2 9.0 −8.8 3.6 −10.9 2.0
4 Nonfinancial 2,305.3 −13.9 −92.7 39.0 90.8 −0.6 −4.1 1.8 4.1
5 Rest of the world 522.9 9.6 −7.9 22.1 8.8 2.0 −1.6 4.5 1.7
6 Receipts from the rest of the world 1,034.4 −1.6 13.1 25.8 22.0 −0.2 1.3 2.6 2.2
7 Less: Payments to the rest of the world 511.5 −11.2 21.1 3.7 13.2 −2.3 4.5 0.7 2.6
9 Less: Taxes on corporate income 582.8 3.6 28.2 −6.3 12.6 0.7 5.1 −1.1 2.2
10 Equals: Profits after tax 2,697.9 −54.5 −111.5 13.2 96.1 −2.0 −4.1 0.5 3.7
11 Net dividends 1,837.6 −15.8 0.4 15.6 −18.2 −0.8 0.0 0.8 −1.0
12 Undistributed profits from current production 860.3 −38.7 −111.8 −2.4 114.3 −4.3 −13.0 −0.3 15.3
13 Net cash flow with IVA 3,346.1 8.6 8.5 32.3 142.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 4.4
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Account tables 1.12 and 6.16D.

Industry profits (corporate profits by industry with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA)) increased $106.5 billion, or 3.0 percent at a quarterly rate, in the third quarter, after increasing $10.8 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the second quarter (table 6 and chart 7). Domestic profits increased $97.7 billion in the third quarter and primarily reflected increases in other nonfinancial industries, manufacturing, and retail trade.

Profits after tax (without IVA and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj))—BEA's profits measure that is conceptually most like the profits for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index—increased $114.9 billion in the third quarter after increasing $21.8 billion in the second quarter.

Table 6. Corporate Profits by Industry
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
  Industry profits:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA 3,620.1 −42.6 4.0 10.8 106.5 −1.2 0.1 0.3 3.0
2 Domestic industries 3,097.2 −52.2 11.9 −11.3 97.7 −1.7 0.4 −0.4 3.3
3 Financial 546.1 −46.0 26.9 −54.7 9.2 −7.5 4.8 −9.2 1.7
4 Nonfinancial 2,551.1 −6.1 −14.9 43.4 88.6 −0.3 −0.6 1.8 3.6
5 Utilities 45.0 −8.4 1.4 7.0 −4.6 −17.0 3.5 16.4 −9.3
6 Manufacturing 743.9 38.0 −18.6 −27.7 32.5 5.3 −2.5 −3.7 4.6
7 Wholesale trade 233.5 −3.0 −32.1 −5.6 5.6 −1.1 −12.1 −2.4 2.5
8 Retail trade 374.3 15.0 13.5 38.3 20.9 5.2 4.5 12.1 5.9
9 Transportation and warehousing 116.5 −9.3 8.0 15.6 −10.3 −8.3 7.8 14.1 −8.1
10 Information 193.3 8.2 −2.9 15.2 5.6 4.9 −1.6 8.8 3.0
11 Other nonfinancial 844.6 −46.6 15.6 0.5 38.8 −5.6 2.0 0.1 4.8
12 Rest of the world 522.9 9.6 −7.9 22.1 8.8 2.0 −1.6 4.5 1.7
  Addenda:
13 Profits before tax (without IVA and CCAdj) 3,600.6 −159.8 59.2 15.5 127.5 −4.5 1.7 0.4 3.7
14 Profits after tax (without IVA and CCAdj) 3,017.8 −163.4 31.0 21.8 114.9 −5.4 1.1 0.8 4.0
15 IVA 19.5 117.3 −55.2 −4.8 −21.0 --- --- --- ---
16 CCAdj −339.4 −8.4 −87.3 −3.8 2.1 --- --- --- ---
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Account tables 1.12, 1.14, 1.15, and 6.16D.

Chart 7. Corporate Profits With Inventory Valuation Adjustment in 2023:Q3, Change From Preceding Quarter

[View larger chart]

The increase in third-quarter real GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage point from the “second” estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending, private inventory investment, and exports (table 7). Imports were revised down.

  • The revision to consumer spending reflected a downward revision to spending on services that was partly offset by an upward revision to spending on goods. For services, the largest contributors to the downward revision were other services (led by international travel), and financial services and insurance (led by portfolio management and investment advice services). For goods, the largest contributor to the upward revision was gasoline and other motor fuel.
  • Within private inventory investment, the downward revision was led by retail trade industries (specifically, general merchandise stores and other retail stores).
  • Within exports, the downward revision was mainly to services (led by other business services and charges for the use of intellectual property).
Table 7. Second and Third Estimates for the Third Quarter of 2023
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
Second estimate Third estimate Third estimate minus second estimate Second estimate Third estimate Third estimate minus second estimate
1 Gross domestic product (GDP)1 5.2 4.9 −0.3 5.2 4.9 −0.3
2 Personal consumption expenditures 3.6 3.1 −0.5 2.44 2.11 −0.33
3 Goods 4.7 4.9 0.2 1.05 1.09 0.04
4 Durable goods 6.8 6.7 −0.1 0.54 0.53 −0.01
5 Nondurable goods 3.5 3.9 0.4 0.51 0.56 0.05
6 Services 3.0 2.2 −0.8 1.38 1.02 −0.36
7 Gross private domestic investment 10.5 10.0 −0.5 1.82 1.74 −0.08
8 Fixed investment 2.4 2.6 0.2 0.42 0.46 0.04
9 Nonresidential 1.3 1.4 0.1 0.18 0.21 0.03
10 Structures 6.9 11.2 4.3 0.21 0.33 0.12
11 Equipment −3.5 −4.4 −0.9 −0.18 −0.22 −0.04
12 Intellectual property products 2.8 1.8 −1.0 0.15 0.10 −0.05
13 Residential 6.2 6.7 0.5 0.24 0.26 0.02
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- 1.40 1.27 −0.13
15 Net exports of goods and services --- --- --- −0.04 0.03 0.07
16 Exports 6.0 5.4 −0.6 0.65 0.59 −0.06
17 Goods 7.7 7.7 0.0 0.55 0.55 0.00
18 Services 2.7 1.0 −1.7 0.10 0.04 −0.06
19 Imports 5.2 4.2 −1.0 −0.69 −0.56 0.13
20 Goods 6.0 5.9 −0.1 −0.65 −0.64 0.01
21 Services 1.9 −2.8 −4.7 −0.05 0.08 0.13
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 5.5 5.8 0.3 0.94 0.99 0.05
23 Federal 7.0 7.1 0.1 0.44 0.45 0.01
24 National defense 8.2 8.4 0.2 0.29 0.30 0.01
25 Nondefense 5.5 5.5 0.0 0.15 0.15 0.00
26 State and local 4.6 5.0 0.4 0.50 0.53 0.03
  Addenda:
27 Final sales of domestic product 3.7 3.6 −0.1 --- --- ---
28 Gross domestic income (GDI)2 --- 1.5 --- --- --- ---
29 Average of GDP and GDI --- 3.2 --- --- --- ---
30 Gross domestic purchases price index 3.0 2.9 −0.1 --- --- ---
31 GDP price index 3.6 3.3 −0.3 --- --- ---
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

 

  1. “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
    Note: This footnote has been updated since this article was originally published. On April 2, 2024, the reference year for chained dollars was corrected from 2012 to 2017, which reflects the results of the 2023 comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts, released on September 28, 2023.
  2. In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”