NIPA Translation of the Fiscal Year 2025 Federal Budget

By Mark S. Ludwick and Brendan I. Brankin  |  April 16, 2024

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On March 11, 2024, President Biden submitted his proposed Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 to Congress. This article presents estimates of federal government receipts and expenditures for fiscal years 2023, 2024, and 2025 that are consistent with the actual and projected receipts and outlays defined in that budget but measured on a National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) basis. These estimates are presented to assist readers in interpreting what the effects of budgeted receipts and outlays would be on aggregate economic activity. They will also be used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) to inform estimates of federal government activity, including the federal government's contributions to gross domestic product (GDP).1,2

Projected estimates of federal government current receipts measured on a NIPA basis are greater than budget estimates of receipts for both 2024 and 2025. Projected estimates of federal government current expenditures measured on a NIPA basis are smaller than budget estimates of outlays for 2024 and greater than budget estimates of outlays for 2025. Net federal government saving, defined as the difference between federal government current receipts and current expenditures measured on a NIPA basis, is projected to be negative but smaller than the estimated budget deficit in both years (chart 1 and table 1). The adjustments made to “translate” budget estimates into NIPA estimates are summarized in tables 2 and 3. Differences between NIPA estimates and budget estimates of spending on national defense are shown in table 4. For more information about the conceptual differences between NIPA measures and budget measures of government transactions, see “NIPA Estimates of the Federal Sector and the Federal Budget Estimates.”3 Some of the adjustments made to budget outlays for 2023 and 2024 are notably larger than usual because of differences in the treatment of student loan forgiveness in budget and NIPA estimates (table 3, lines 6, 7, and 19).

Chart 1. Federal Fiscal Position

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Table 1. Budget Receipts and Outlays and NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
Series Level for fiscal year Change from preceding fiscal year
Actual Estimates
2023 2024 2025 2024 2025
Budget:          
Receipts 4,440.9 5,081.5 5,484.9 640.6 403.4
Outlays 6,134.7 6,940.9 7,266.0 806.2 325.1
Surplus or deficit (-) −1,693.7 −1,859.4 −1,781.0 −165.6 78.3
NIPAs:          
Current receipts 4,746.0 5,276.1 5,672.0 530.1 395.9
Current expenditures 6,301.7 6,788.3 7,298.4 486.6 510.1
Net federal government saving −1,555.7 −1,512.2 −1,626.4 43.5 −114.2
NIPA
National Income and Product Accounts

Note. Detail in this table may not add to the totals due to rounding.
Sources. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Table 2. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts to Budget Receipts
[Billions of dollars]
Series Fiscal year
2023 2024 2025
Budget receipts 4,440.9 5,081.5 5,484.9
       
Less: Coverage differences 50.8 55.8 69.9
Contributions received by federal employee pension and insurance funds1 6.9 7.6 8.2
Capital transfers received2 35.3 38.8 51.7
Other3 8.6 9.3 10.0
       
Less: Netting and grossing differences −273.6 −316.5 −383.3
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −142.0 −152.6 −165.4
Interest receipts −21.7 −51.0 −51.3
Current surplus of government enterprises 0.5 −1.7 −0.2
Other4 −110.4 −111.2 −166.3
       
Plus: Timing differences 82.2 −66.2 −126.3
Taxes on corporate income −34.1 −23.4 24.2
Federal and state unemployment insurance taxes −5.5 −1.3 0.0
Withheld personal income tax and social security contributions 114.5 −45.0 −145.0
Excise taxes 16.1 2.5 −0.7
Other −8.8 1.0 −4.8
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current receipts 4,746.0 5,276.1 5,672.0
NIPA
National Income and Product Accounts

Table Footnotes

  1. In the NIPAs, pension plans are treated as “pass-through” institutions that hold financial assets on behalf of households, which are the effective owners. Pension plans are classified as financial corporations that receive contributions and property income on behalf of plan participants but do not have saving or net worth of their own. NIPA table 7.23 shows transactions of the federal government defined-benefit pension subsectors.
  2. Consists of estate and gift taxes.
  3. Beginning with 1996, other consists largely of Universal Service Fund receipts. Includes certain revenues collected from and repaid to U.S. territories and the commonwealths of Puerto Rico and Northern Mariana Islands.
  4. Includes proprietary receipts that are netted against outlays in the budget and that are classified as receipts in the NIPAs and some transactions that are not reflected in the budget but that are added to both receipts and expenditures in the NIPAs.

Sources. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Table 3. Relation of NIPA Federal Government Current Expenditures to Budget Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
Series Fiscal year
2023 2024 2025
Budget outlays 6,134.7 6,940.9 7,266.0
       
Less: Coverage differences 189.2 364.8 283.3
Federal employee pension and insurance fund transactions1 −70.2 −71.3 −52.7
Financing disbursements from credit programs2 −27.1 2.3 −52.2
Net investment3 69.2 88.0 111.9
Capital transfers paid4 263.7 182.7 149.5
Financial transactions −45.9 162.5 125.1
Net purchases of nonproduced assets −1.0 −1.5 −1.0
Other5 0.5 2.1 2.8
Less: Netting and grossing differences −273.6 −316.5 −383.3
Supplementary medical insurance premiums −142.0 −152.6 −165.4
Interest receipts −21.7 −51.0 −51.3
Current surplus of government enterprises 0.5 −1.7 −0.2
Other6 −110.4 −111.2 −166.3
       
Plus: Timing differences 82.6 −104.3 −67.5
Purchases (increase in payables net of advances) −16.0 −17.9 8.4
Interest payments 0.4 0.5 0.5
Current transfer payments −45.6 −86.2 −74.7
Other7 143.8 −0.7 −1.6
       
Equals: NIPA federal government current expenditures 6,301.7 6,788.3 7,298.4
NIPA
National Income and Product Accounts

Table Footnotes

  1. In the NIPAs, pension plans are treated as “pass-through” institutions that hold financial assets on behalf of households, which are the effective owners. Pension plans are classified as financial corporations that receive contributions and property income on behalf of plan participants but do not have saving or net worth of their own. NIPA table 7.23 shows transactions of the federal government defined-benefit pension subsectors. Contributions for publicly administered insurance funds are transactions with the household sector and include the Medicare-eligible Retiree Health Care Fund.
  2. Consists of transactions (not included in the budget totals) that record all cash flows arising from post-1991 direct loan obligations and loan guarantee commitments. Many of these flows are for new loans or loan repayments; therefore, related entries are included in (Financial transactions.)
  3. Net investment is gross investment less consumption of fixed capital for government enterprises and general government.
  4. Consists of investment grants to state and local governments and maritime construction subsidies. Excludes the forgiveness of debts owed by foreign governments to the U.S. government or payments to the Uniformed Services Retiree Health Care Fund to amortize unfunded liability; both are classified as capital transfers paid by the United States and are excluded from both budget outlays and NIPA current expenditures.
  5. Consists largely of agencies or accounts, such as the Postal Service and the Federal Financing Bank, that were not included in the budget in some periods, and the Universal Service Fund. Also includes net expenditures of foreign currencies as well as repayments of certain collections from the U.S. territories and the commonwealths of Puerto Rico and Northern Mariana Islands.
  6. Includes proprietary receipts that are netted against outlays in the budget and that are classified as receipts in the NIPAs and some transactions that are not reflected in the budget data but that are added to both receipts and expenditures in the NIPAs.
  7. Primarily includes timing on subsidies and government enterprises.

Sources. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Table 4. Relation of National Defense Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment to National Defense Outlays
[Billions of dollars]
Series Fiscal year
2023 2024 2025
Budget outlays for national defense 820.3 907.7 926.7
U.S. Department of Defense, military 775.9 844.9 871.6
Military personnel 183.9 189.8 202.8
Operation and maintenance 317.6 323.4 330.2
Procurement1 141.7 147.9 166.5
Research, development, test, and evaluation 122.0 137.3 138.8
Other 10.7 46.4 33.2
Atomic energy and other defense-related activities 44.4 62.9 55.1
       
Plus: Consumption of general government fixed capital 198.2 207.0 215.4
Additional payments to military and civilian retirement funds 136.8 168.6 171.0
       
Less: Grants-in-aid to state and local governments and net interest paid 0.7 0.7 0.7
Timing differences 19.7 15.7 −10.5
Other differences 156.4 208.1 204.9
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures and gross investment 978.4 1,058.8 1,118.2
       
Less: National defense gross investment2 213.9 228.5 242.3
       
Equals: NIPA national defense consumption expenditures 764.6 830.3 875.8
NIPA
National Income and Product Accounts

Table Footnotes

  1. Includes outlays for procurement of aircraft, ships, and weapons, as well as for military construction, family housing, and anticipated funding for war operations.
  2. Gross investment consists of general government expenditures for fixed assets; inventory investment is included in federal government consumption expenditures.

Note. Detail in this table may not add to the totals due to rounding.
Sources. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The Budget projects an increase in federal receipts of $640.6 billion in 2024 and an increase of $403.4 billion in 2025 (table 5). These changes reflect underlying budget assumptions about economic activity and growth in incomes and real GDP over these years.4 Projected increases in individual and corporate tax revenues in 2024 result from projected increases in both personal incomes and corporate profits and from budget proposals to increase tax rates on corporations and wealthy individuals, as described below.

The Budget projects increases in federal outlays of $806.2 billion in 2024 and $325.1 billion in 2025 (table 6). The projected increase in 2024 includes an increase in outlays in the education function, which includes the costs of student loan forgiveness, and an increase in outlays in the net interest function, reflecting higher interest paid on U.S. Treasury debt securities. The deceleration in federal outlays in 2025 includes projected downturns in the education function and a deceleration in the net interest function that more than offset projected upturns in outlays in the income security, Medicare, and health functions. A large upturn in the income security function in 2025 includes spending related to a proposed expansion of the Child Tax Credit, as described below.

Table 5. Budget Receipts by Source
[Billions of dollars]
Series Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2022 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025
Budget receipts 4,897.3 4,440.9 5,081.5 5,484.9 −456.4 640.6 403.4
Individual income taxes 2,632.1 2,176.5 2,503.4 2,679.2 −455.7 326.9 175.9
Corporation income taxes 424.9 419.6 612.8 668.1 −5.3 193.2 55.3
Social insurance taxes and contributions 1,483.5 1,614.5 1,720.5 1,896.8 130.9 106.1 176.3
Excise taxes 87.7 75.8 99.7 109.9 −11.9 23.9 10.2
Estate and gift taxes 32.6 33.7 29.0 32.6 1.1 −4.6 3.6
Customs duties 99.9 80.3 81.4 60.7 −19.6 1.0 −20.7
Miscellaneous receipts 136.6 40.6 34.7 37.6 −96.0 −5.9 2.9

Source. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025

Table 6. Budget Outlays by Function
[Billions of dollars]
Series Level for fiscal year Change from preceding year
2022 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025
Budget outlays 6273.3 6134.7 6940.9 7266.0 −138.6 806.2 325.1
National defense 765.6 820.3 907.7 926.8 54.6 87.5 19.0
International affairs 71.9 69.3 69.8 66.5 −2.6 0.5 −3.3
General science, space, and technology 37.4 41.3 43.8 43.8 3.9 2.5 0.0
Energy −9.1 −0.4 27.1 39.1 8.7 27.5 12.0
Natural resources and environment 41.4 47.4 94.0 73.2 6.0 46.6 −20.8
Agriculture 33.1 33.7 39.5 33.7 0.6 5.8 −5.7
Commerce and housing credit −19.1 100.8 58.0 13.5 119.8 −42.8 −44.5
Transportation 131.0 126.4 144.7 150.2 −4.6 18.3 5.5
Community and regional development 70.0 86.6 124.8 60.8 16.6 38.3 −64.1
Education, training, employment, and social services1 677.3 −2.2 292.2 187.7 −679.5 294.4 −104.5
Health 914.1 888.6 858.0 888.9 −25.5 −30.5 30.9
Medicare 755.1 847.5 847.4 946.0 92.4 −0.1 98.6
Income security 866.1 774.7 760.5 936.8 −91.4 −14.1 176.3
Social security 1218.7 1354.3 1458.0 1549.7 135.7 103.7 91.7
Veterans' benefits and services 274.4 301.6 346.3 370.1 27.2 44.7 23.8
Administration of justice 71.3 80.4 89.9 87.4 9.1 9.5 −2.6
General government 133.2 38.2 42.7 51.0 −95.0 4.5 8.4
Net interest 475.9 658.3 888.6 965.5 182.4 230.3 76.9
Allowances2 0.0 0.0 −7.3 24.5 0.0 −7.3 31.8
Undistributed offsetting receipts3 −235.0 −131.9 −144.9 −149.3 103.0 −12.9 −4.5

Table Footnotes

  1. The pattern of outlays for the education, training, employment, and social services function is influenced by the way in which the budget records the estimated accrued subsidy costs of loan programs. For 2022, the outlays included the estimated long-term cost of the plan to cancel certain student loan debt. As a result of the June 2023 Supreme Court decision, that planned loan cancellation was not implemented. This decision lowered the long-term estimated subsidy cost, which was recorded in the budget as a decrease in outlays for 2023.
  2. Allowances are included in budget totals to cover certain budgetary transactions that are expected to increase or decrease outlays, receipts, or budget authority but are not reflected in the program details.
  3. Undistributed offsetting receipts are two categories of collections that are governmental in nature and that are not credited to expenditure accounts: receipts from performing business-like activities, such as proceeds from selling federal assets or leases, and shifts from one account to another, such as agency payments to retirement funds.

Source. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025

The budget projections discussed above include receipts and outlays that would result from the continuation of current policies plus the effects of policies that are proposed in the Budget but have not yet been enacted. The Budget also includes baseline estimates of receipts and outlays that are consistent with the expected deficit outlook in the absence of any policy changes. Compared to these current services baseline estimates, the net effect of legislative proposals in the budget is to decrease the federal deficit by $50 billion in 2024 and by $84 billion in 2025 (table 7).5 Specific proposals that would have a significant effect on the federal deficit in these years include:

  • A proposal to expand the Child Tax Credit and make the credit permanently refundable. This proposal would increase the deficit by $5 billion in 2024 and by $210 billion in 2025. In NIPA estimates, these credits would be recorded as social benefits (table 8, line 24).
  • A proposal to reform corporate taxes, including an increase in the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent and an increase in the tax on corporate stock buybacks. This proposal would reduce the deficit by $97 billion in 2024 and by $189 billion in 2025. In NIPA estimates, receipts associated with this proposal are primarily recorded as taxes on corporate profits (table 8, line 5). Increased taxes on stock buybacks would be recorded as capital transfers from businesses (table 8, line 34).
  • A proposal to reform taxation of high-income individuals, including returning the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6 percent and modifying the taxation of capital gains. This proposal would reduce the deficit by $10 billion in 2024 and by $132 billion in 2025. In NIPA estimates, receipts associated with this proposal are primarily recorded as personal income taxes (table 8, line 3).
  • Proposals to expand the net investment income tax (NIIT) and to increase the additional Medicare tax rate for high-income taxpayers. These proposals would reduce the deficit by $17 billion in 2024 and by $81 billion in 2025. In NIPA estimates, receipts associated with the NIIT are recorded primarily as personal income taxes, and receipts associated with the additional Medicare tax are recorded as employee contributions for government social insurance (table 8, lines 3 and 7).
  • A proposal to reduce housing costs, primarily through a new mortgage relief tax credit. This proposal would increase the deficit by $1 billion in 2024 and by $31 billion in 2025. In NIPA estimates, the mortgage relief tax would be recorded as an increase in capital transfers paid to homeowners (table 8, line 40).
  • A proposal to expand access to child care and preschool. This proposal would increase the deficit by $15 billion in 2025. In NIPA estimates, this spending would be recorded as subsidies to child care providers and as grants to state and local governments (table 8, lines 27 and 30).
  • A proposal to permanently expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for workers without qualifying children. This proposal would increase the deficit by $15 billion. In NIPA estimates, this spending would be recorded as social benefits (table 8, line 24).
Table 7. Proposed Legislative and Program Changes in the Budget
[Billions of dollars]
  Fiscal Year
2024 2025
Current-services baseline surplus or deficit (-) −1,909 −1,865
     
Plus: Net effects of proposed legislation1 50 84
Expand the Child Tax Credit with permanent full refundability and advanceability −5 −210
Reform taxation of corporations 97 189
Reform taxation of the wealthiest Americans 10 132
Expand the net investment and additional Medicare taxes 17 81
Reduce the cost of housing for homeowners and renters −1 −31
Expand access to child care and preschool 0 −15
Restore the expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit 0 −15
Other −68 −48
     
Equals: Administration budget surplus or deficit (-) −1,859 −1,781

Table Footnote

  1. Consistent with the budget, proposed legislation may exclude some budget reform proposals that are included in the baseline.

Note. Detail in this table may not add to the totals due to rounding.
Source. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025

Table 8. NIPA Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars]
Line Series Fiscal year estimates1 Fiscal year changes Calendar year
Published2 Estimated
2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024
1 Current receipts 4,746.0 5,276.1 5,672.0 −184.2 530.1 395.9 4,725.6 5,121.0
2 Current tax receipts 2,867.8 3,251.1 3,532.2 −177.7 383.4 281.0 2,807.3 3,084.5
3 Personal current taxes 2,266.9 2,440.6 2,637.3 −206.6 173.6 196.8 2,189.3 2,315.6
4 Taxes on production and imports 182.6 187.1 168.4 −14.3 4.4 −18.7 173.4 163.8
5 Taxes on corporate income 383.9 587.7 690.6 42.4 203.8 103.0 409.9 569.9
6 Taxes from the rest of the world 34.3 35.9 35.9 0.8 1.6 0.0 34.8 35.2
7 Contributions for social insurance 1,761.6 1,868.9 1,957.3 88.9 107.3 88.4 1,789.3 1,855.6
8 Domestic 1,753.1 1,860.0 1,947.9 86.2 106.9 87.9 1,783.2 1,849.1
9 Rest of the world 8.5 8.9 9.4 2.8 0.4 0.5 6.1 6.5
10 Income receipts on assets 42.4 71.5 71.1 −99.2 29.1 −0.4 48.9 70.7
11 Interest receipts 25.5 55.0 55.3 4.5 29.5 0.3 31.8 52.9
12 Dividends 1.4 0.9 0.9 −103.5 −0.5 0.0 1.3 2.8
13 Rents and royalties 15.4 15.5 14.8 −0.2 0.2 −0.7 15.8 14.9
14 Current transfer receipts 74.7 82.9 111.2 12.1 8.2 28.3 72.3 106.0
15 From business 47.8 56.0 82.9 7.0 8.1 27.0 46.2 67.0
16 From persons 21.9 22.9 23.5 4.0 0.9 0.7 19.1 19.9
17 From the rest of the world 5.0 4.1 4.7 1.1 −0.8 0.6 7.0 19.1
18 Current surplus of government enterprises −0.5 1.7 0.2 −8.3 2.2 −1.5 7.8 4.1
19 Current expenditures 6,301.7 6,788.3 7,298.4 288.7 486.6 510.1 6,384.3 6,775.5
20 Consumption expenditures 1,261.3 1,407.1 1,484.0 47.5 145.8 76.9 1,329.1 1,452.6
21 National defense 764.6 830.3 875.8 47.4 65.7 45.5 777.1 839.8
22 Nondefense 496.7 576.8 608.2 0.1 80.1 31.3 552.1 612.8
23 Current transfer payments 4,058.2 4,162.2 4,521.1 103.3 104.0 358.8 4,007.1 4,107.0
24 Government social benefits 3,019.4 3,122.0 3,556.9 88.0 102.6 434.9 2,966.8 3,130.0
25 To persons 2,986.3 3,085.9 3,518.1 83.1 99.5 432.2 2,934.9 3,095.8
26 To rest of the world 33.1 36.2 38.8 4.8 3.1 2.6 31.9 34.3
27 Grants-in-aid to state and local governments 957.5 954.4 889.8 12.7 −3.1 −64.6 952.2 908.9
28 Transfer payments to the rest of the world (net) 81.4 85.8 74.3 2.7 4.4 −11.5 88.2 68.1
29 Federal interest paid 873.8 1,114.6 1,182.2 202.5 240.8 67.7 947.6 1,113.6
30 Subsidies 108.4 104.4 111.1 −64.6 −4.0 6.7 100.4 102.3
31 Net federal government saving −1,555.7 −1,512.2 −1,626.4 −472.9 43.5 −114.2 −1,658.6 −1,654.5
  Addenda:
32 Total receipts 4,779.6 5,303.9 5,703.7 −183.1 524.4 399.8 4,755.6 5,150.8
33 Current receipts 4,746.0 5,276.1 5,672.0 −184.2 530.1 395.9 4,725.6 5,121.0
34 Capital transfer receipts 33.6 27.8 31.7 1.1 −5.7 3.9 30.0 29.8
35 Total expenditures 6,637.0 7,055.8 7,557.0 467.8 418.8 501.2 6,699.5 7,039.4
36 Current expenditures 6,301.7 6,788.3 7,298.4 288.7 486.6 510.1 6,384.3 6,775.5
37 Gross investment3 433.6 468.2 501.8 36.0 34.6 33.6 442.6 483.1
38 National defense 213.9 228.5 242.3 15.9 14.7 13.8 217.6 239.5
39 Nondefense 219.7 239.7 259.4 20.1 20.0 19.8 225.0 243.6
40 Capital transfer payments 268.7 182.7 149.5 57.5 −86.0 −33.2 243.8 165.1
41 Net purchases of nonproduced assets −1.0 −1.5 −1.0 107.0 −0.6 0.5 −0.7 0.2
42 Less: Consumption of fixed capital 366.1 381.9 391.6 21.5 15.8 9.7 370.5 384.5
43 Net lending or net borrowing (-) −1,857.4 −1,751.8 −1,853.3 −650.9 105.6 −101.4 −1,943.9 −1,888.6
NIPA
National Income and Product Accounts

Table Footnotes

  1. Fiscal year estimates are the sum of quarterly estimates that are not seasonally adjusted and that are consistent with budget proposals.
  2. These estimates are published in the NIPA table 3.2 and table 3.9.5.
  3. Gross investment consists of general government and government enterprise expenditures for fixed assets; inventory investment is included in federal government consumption expenditures.

Sources. Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2025 and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

NIPA estimates of federal government receipts and expenditures that are consistent with the actual and projected receipts and outlays defined in the Budget for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are displayed in table 8 and in charts 2 and 3. Projected NIPA estimates of federal government current receipts increase $530.1 billion in 2024 and $395.9 billion in 2025. Projected NIPA estimates of federal government current expenditures increase $486.6 billion in 2024 and $510.1 billion in 2025. Table 8 also includes estimates for calendar year 2024 that were derived by extrapolating forward from the NIPA estimates for the fourth quarter of 2023 that were released on March 28, 2024. Estimates for the quarters of calendar year 2024 based on more contemporaneous data will be published each month in NIPA table 3.2 and in related underlying tables.

Chart 2. Federal Government Current Receipts

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Chart 3. Federal Government Current Expenditures

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Budget estimates of government receipts are allocated into five major NIPA receipts categories: (1) current tax receipts, (2) contributions for government social insurance, (3) income receipts on assets, (4) current transfer receipts, and (5) current surplus of government enterprises. These allocations are consistent with national accounting standards and are based on information and assumptions from the Budget and on projections of the effects of specific budget proposals from the U.S. Department of the Treasury Office of Tax Analysis.

Budget estimates of government outlays are organized by appropriation in the Budget Appendix. These data and supplemental data from the U.S. Office of Management and Budget are used to allocate federal budget outlays into four major NIPA expenditures categories: (1) current transfer payments, (2) interest payments, (3) subsidies, and (4) consumption expenditures and gross investment.

The allocations of budget receipts and outlays into NIPA categories are used, along with supplemental administrative data, to inform how federal government receipts and spending reported each month by the U.S. Department of the Treasury are allocated into NIPA categories to produce monthly and quarterly NIPA estimates.

When quarterly NIPA estimates are published, estimates of defense consumption expenditures and gross investment are reconciled with outlays reported in the Monthly Treasury Statement using financial, delivery, and other information from the U.S. Department of Defense. For nondefense consumption expenditures and gross investment, extrapolations of budget data are used in the estimation of some categories of spending including expenditures for durable goods, nondurable goods, services, and equipment for which no quarterly source data are available. Other categories of spending incorporate quarterly source data, such as data for construction from the U.S. Census Bureau and data for compensation from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Footnotes

  1. The projected receipts and outlays that are published in the Budget and the assumptions that underlie those projections will be updated over time, notably in the Mid-Session Review of the Budget. The estimates discussed in this article are consistent with values as they were initially published in March 2024.
  2. Unless otherwise noted, all years in this article refer to fiscal years rather than calendar years.
  3. For a historical perspective of the relationship between budget receipts and outlays and NIPA receipts and expenditures, see NIPA table 3.18B.
  4. A more detailed accounting of the economic assumptions that underlie budget estimates is described in the “Economic Assumptions” chapter of the Analytical Perspectives volume of the Budget.
  5. See “Table S–2. Effect of Budget Proposals on Projected Deficits” and “Table S–6. Mandatory and Receipt Proposals“ in the Budget of the United States Government volume of the Budget.