GDP and the Economy

Second Estimates for the First Quarter of 2024

June 4, 2024

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the “second” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

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Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2024:Q1

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The increase in first-quarter real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2

  • The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods.
    • Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care as well as financial services and insurance.
    • Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
  • The increase in residential fixed investment was led by brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs and new single-family construction.
  • The increase in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected an increase in intellectual property products. The increase was led by software (prepackaged software) and research and development (business).
  • The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees.
  • The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods. The leading contributor to the increase in goods was foods, feeds, and beverages as well as consumer goods, except food and automotive.
  • The decrease in private inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing.
  • The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in defense spending. The leading contributor to the decrease in defense spending was gross investment in equipment (mainly aircraft).
  • The increase in imports reflected increases in both goods and services. The leading contributors to the increase in goods were capital goods, except automotive; industrial supplies and materials; and consumer goods, except food and automotive. Within services, the increase was led by travel.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP
(percent)		 Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 GDP1 100.0 2.1 4.9 3.4 1.3 2.1 4.9 3.4 1.3
2 Personal consumption expenditures 67.8 0.8 3.1 3.3 2.0 0.55 2.11 2.20 1.34
3 Goods 22.0 0.5 4.9 3.0 −1.9 0.11 1.09 0.67 −0.42
4 Durable goods 7.7 −0.3 6.7 3.2 −4.1 −0.03 0.53 0.25 −0.33
5 Nondurable goods 14.3 0.9 3.9 2.9 −0.6 0.14 0.56 0.41 −0.09
6 Services 45.8 1.0 2.2 3.4 3.9 0.44 1.02 1.54 1.76
7 Gross private domestic investment 17.7 5.2 10.0 0.7 3.2 0.90 1.74 0.15 0.57
8 Fixed investment 17.6 5.2 2.6 3.5 6.0 0.90 0.46 0.61 1.02
9 Nonresidential 13.5 7.4 1.4 3.7 3.3 0.98 0.21 0.50 0.44
10 Structures 3.1 16.1 11.2 10.9 0.4 0.46 0.33 0.32 0.01
11 Equipment 4.9 7.7 −4.4 −1.1 0.3 0.38 −0.22 −0.05 0.01
12 Intellectual property products 5.5 2.7 1.8 4.3 7.9 0.15 0.10 0.23 0.42
13 Residential 4.0 −2.2 6.7 2.8 15.4 −0.09 0.26 0.11 0.57
14 Change in private inventories 0.1 --- --- --- --- 0.00 1.27 −0.47 −0.45
15 Net exports of goods and services −3.0 --- --- --- --- 0.04 0.03 0.25 −0.89
16 Exports 10.9 −9.3 5.4 5.1 1.2 −1.09 0.59 0.55 0.13
17 Goods 7.3 −16.0 7.7 6.2 1.7 −1.31 0.55 0.45 0.12
18 Services 3.6 6.2 1.0 2.8 0.1 0.22 0.04 0.10 0.00
19 Imports 13.9 −7.6 4.2 2.2 7.7 1.13 −0.56 −0.30 −1.02
20 Goods 11.3 −6.5 5.9 1.3 7.2 0.78 −0.64 −0.14 −0.78
21 Services 2.6 −12.2 −2.8 6.2 9.6 0.35 0.08 −0.15 −0.24
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 17.5 3.3 5.8 4.6 1.3 0.57 0.99 0.79 0.23
23 Federal 6.5 1.1 7.1 2.4 −0.7 0.07 0.45 0.15 −0.05
24 National defense 3.6 2.3 8.4 0.5 −1.2 0.08 0.30 0.02 −0.05
25 Nondefense 2.9 −0.4 5.5 4.8 0.0 −0.01 0.15 0.14 0.00
26 State and local 11.0 4.7 5.0 6.0 2.6 0.50 0.53 0.64 0.28
Addenda:
27 GDI2 --- 0.5 1.9 3.6 1.5 --- --- --- ---
28 Average of GDP and GDI --- 1.3 3.4 3.5 1.4 --- --- --- ---
29 Final sales of domestic product --- 2.1 3.6 3.9 1.7 --- --- --- ---
30 Goods 30.6 0.9 7.3 2.6 −3.5 0.29 2.30 0.83 −1.10
31 Services 60.6 1.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 1.13 1.73 1.70 1.68
32 Structures 8.9 7.7 10.0 10.4 7.9 0.63 0.83 0.86 0.67
GDI
Gross domestic income
GDP
Gross domestic product
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

Note. Percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) tables 1.1.1 and 1.2.1, contributions are from NIPA tables 1.1.2 and 1.2.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10 or are calculated from NIPA table 1.2.5.

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) featured measure of inflation for the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 3.0 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter (table 2 and chart 3).

Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 2.0 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter. Prices for energy goods and services decreased 1.2 percent after decreasing 2.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 3.2 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.3 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for services that was partly offset by a decrease in prices for goods.

  • Within services, price increases were widespread. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (led by housing), financial services and insurance (mainly banking and other financial services), and health care (led by hospitals).
  • Within goods, the leading contributor to the decrease was gasoline and other energy goods (led by motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids).

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter.

Chart 3. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases

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Table 2. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index numbers (2017=100)]
Line Series Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices
(percentage points)
2023 2024 2023 2024
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 Gross domestic purchases1 1.4 2.9 1.9 3.0 1.4 2.9 1.9 3.0
2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.5 2.6 1.8 3.3 1.63 1.71 1.18 2.18
3 Goods 0.2 0.9 −1.4 −0.5 0.05 0.20 −0.31 −0.11
4 Durable goods 0.1 −4.4 −3.5 −0.5 0.01 −0.35 −0.27 −0.03
5 Nondurable goods 0.3 3.9 −0.2 −0.6 0.04 0.55 −0.03 −0.07
6 Services 3.6 3.5 3.4 5.3 1.58 1.51 1.48 2.29
7 Gross private domestic investment −0.1 1.7 2.3 0.8 −0.02 0.30 0.39 0.14
8 Fixed investment 0.0 1.7 2.4 1.1 −0.01 0.30 0.41 0.20
9 Nonresidential 0.2 0.9 2.0 1.4 0.03 0.12 0.26 0.19
10 Structures 0.9 −2.3 2.1 −0.5 0.03 −0.07 0.06 −0.01
11 Equipment −1.1 2.3 1.5 4.1 −0.06 0.11 0.07 0.19
12 Intellectual property products 1.1 1.4 2.4 0.2 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.01
13 Residential −0.9 4.8 4.0 0.1 −0.03 0.18 0.15 0.01
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- --- −0.01 0.00 −0.02 −0.06
15 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment −1.1 5.1 1.9 4.1 −0.18 0.84 0.32 0.69
16 Federal 2.1 4.0 4.0 4.6 0.13 0.25 0.25 0.29
17 National defense 1.9 4.2 4.7 4.4 0.07 0.15 0.16 0.15
18 Nondefense 2.3 3.7 3.0 4.7 0.06 0.10 0.08 0.13
19 State and local −2.9 5.7 0.6 3.8 −0.31 0.59 0.07 0.40
  Addenda:
  Gross domestic purchases:                
20 Food 0.1 1.9 1.4 2.0 0.00 0.10 0.07 0.10
21 Energy goods and services −15.6 16.1 −2.9 −1.2 −0.46 0.42 −0.08 −0.03
22 Excluding food and energy 2.1 2.5 2.1 3.2 1.90 2.34 1.90 2.94
  Personal consumption expenditures:                
23 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption 0.0 1.9 1.6 2.1 --- --- --- ---
24 Energy goods and services −15.6 16.2 −3.2 −1.2 --- --- --- ---
25 Excluding food and energy 3.7 2.0 2.0 3.6 --- --- --- ---
26 Gross domestic product 1.7 3.3 1.6 3.0 --- --- --- ---
27 Exports of goods and services −3.9 4.0 −2.2 2.7 --- --- --- ---
28 Imports of goods and services −4.8 0.3 0.5 2.5 --- --- --- ---
  1. The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $404.4 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $161.8 billion in the fourth quarter (table 3). The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal current transfer receipts (led by government social benefits to persons).

Personal current taxes increased $137.7 billion in the first quarter after increasing $27.1 billion in the fourth quarter.

Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased $266.7 billion, or 5.3 percent, in the first quarter after increasing $134.7 billion, or 2.7 percent, in the fourth quarter. Personal outlays increased $229.9 billion after increasing $238.8 billion.

Real DPI (chart 4) increased 1.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

The personal saving rate (chart 5)—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter.

With the release of the second estimate of GDP, BEA also released revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, based on updated data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

  • Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $58.5 billion in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $73.0 billion.
  • Personal current taxes are now estimated to have increased $27.1 billion, a downward revision of $12.6 billion.
  • Contributions for government social insurance are now estimated to have increased $8.3 billion, a downward revision of $9.6 billion.
  • With the incorporation of these new data, real gross domestic income (GDI) is now estimated to have increased 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points from the previously published estimate.
Chart 4. Real Disposable Personal Income

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Chart 5. Personal Saving Rate

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Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars; quarterly estimates are seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Level Change from preceding period
2023 2024 2023 2024
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 Personal income 23,247.5 23,652.0 224.1 217.7 161.8 404.4
2 Compensation of employees 14,448.1 14,647.9 188.9 214.6 79.4 199.8
3 Wages and salaries 11,976.0 12,141.8 167.8 184.2 58.5 165.7
4 Private industries 10,188.6 10,314.4 142.7 141.8 24.5 125.7
5 Goods-producing industries 1,878.9 1,904.1 27.6 30.0 11.5 25.2
6 Manufacturing 1,102.6 1,114.2 14.6 20.8 0.0 11.6
7 Services-producing industries 8,309.7 8,410.2 115.2 111.8 12.9 100.6
8 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,827.2 1,845.5 8.3 28.9 −0.1 18.3
9 Other services-producing industries 6,482.5 6,564.7 106.9 83.0 13.1 82.3
10 Government 1,787.4 1,827.4 25.1 42.4 34.1 40.0
11 Supplements to wages and salaries 2,472.1 2,506.2 21.1 30.4 20.9 34.1
12 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 1,882.6 1,890.4 −3.3 35.5 23.1 7.8
13 Farm 38.0 36.6 −13.0 −8.3 −11.9 −1.4
14 Nonfarm 1,844.6 1,853.8 9.7 43.7 35.0 9.1
15 Rental income of persons with CCAdj 988.1 1,023.2 15.3 13.3 13.7 35.0
16 Personal income receipts on assets 3,667.3 3,698.9 25.6 3.9 60.8 31.6
17 Personal interest income 1,815.6 1,813.1 10.4 21.6 39.2 −2.4
18 Personal dividend income 1,851.7 1,885.7 15.2 −17.6 21.6 34.0
19 Personal current transfer receipts 4,086.8 4,255.3 17.7 −26.5 −6.9 168.5
20 Government social benefits to persons 3,979.2 4,141.5 15.8 −29.5 −8.5 162.2
21 Social security 1,374.2 1,426.9 13.8 7.5 13.0 52.7
22 Medicare 951.3 965.3 3.8 4.4 5.0 13.9
23 Medicaid 868.3 922.3 39.9 −30.8 −12.3 54.0
24 Unemployment insurance 22.7 22.7 0.3 −1.3 1.7 0.1
25 Veterans' benefits 173.6 174.7 −0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1
26 Other 589.1 629.5 −41.7 −9.6 −16.7 40.5
27 Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) 107.5 113.8 2.0 3.0 1.7 6.3
28 Less: Contributions for government social insurance 1,825.5 1,863.7 20.1 23.2 8.3 38.2
29 Less: Personal current taxes 2,792.5 2,930.2 −59.8 61.5 27.1 137.7
30 Equals: Disposable personal income 20,455.0 20,721.8 284.0 156.2 134.7 266.7
31 Less: Personal outlays 19,695.3 19,925.2 204.6 319.9 238.8 229.9
32 Personal consumption expenditures 18,914.5 19,164.2 149.4 260.5 235.0 249.7
33 Personal interest payments1 531.7 509.3 54.9 55.9 1.1 −22.4
34 Personal current transfer payments 249.1 251.6 0.3 3.5 2.8 2.5
35 Equals: Personal saving 759.8 796.6 79.3 −163.7 −104.1 36.9
36 Personal saving as a percentage of DPI 3.7 3.8 --- --- --- ---
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
DPI
Disposable personal income
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment
  1. Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons.

Note. Dollar levels and percent changes are from National Income and Product Account tables 2.1 and 2.2B.

The increase in first-quarter real GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage point from the “advance” estimate, primarily reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending and private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to state and local government spending (table 4).

  • The revision to consumer spending primarily reflected a downward revision to spending on goods. The largest contributor was motor vehicles and parts (led by new light trucks).
  • Within private inventory investment, the downward revision was mainly to wholesale trade industries (led by durable-goods industries).
  • The revision to state and local government spending primarily reflected an upward revision to structures investment.
Table 4. Advance and Second Estimates for the First Quarter of 2024
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
Advance estimate Second estimate Second estimate minus advance estimate Advance estimate Second estimate Second estimate minus advance estimate
1 GDP1 1.6 1.3 −0.3 1.6 1.3 −0.3
2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.5 2.0 −0.5 1.68 1.34 −0.34
3 Goods −0.4 −1.9 −1.5 −0.09 −0.42 −0.33
4 Durable goods −1.2 −4.1 −2.9 −0.09 −0.33 −0.24
5 Nondurable goods 0.0 −0.6 −0.6 0.00 −0.09 −0.09
6 Services 4.0 3.9 −0.1 1.78 1.76 −0.02
7 Gross private domestic investment 3.2 3.2 0.0 0.56 0.57 0.01
8 Fixed investment 5.3 6.0 0.7 0.91 1.02 0.11
9 Nonresidential 2.9 3.3 0.4 0.39 0.44 0.05
10 Structures −0.1 0.4 0.5 0.00 0.01 0.01
11 Equipment 2.1 0.3 −1.8 0.10 0.01 −0.09
12 Intellectual property products 5.4 7.9 2.5 0.29 0.42 0.13
13 Residential 13.9 15.4 1.5 0.52 0.57 0.05
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- −0.35 −0.45 −0.10
15 Net exports of goods and services --- --- --- −0.86 −0.89 −0.03
16 Exports 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.10 0.13 0.03
17 Goods 0.9 1.7 0.8 0.06 0.12 0.06
18 Services 1.0 0.1 −0.9 0.04 0.00 −0.04
19 Imports 7.2 7.7 0.5 −0.96 −1.02 −0.06
20 Goods 6.8 7.2 0.4 −0.74 −0.78 −0.04
21 Services 9.0 9.6 0.6 −0.22 −0.24 −0.02
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 1.2 1.3 0.1 0.21 0.23 0.02
23 Federal −0.2 −0.7 −0.5 −0.01 −0.05 −0.04
24 National defense −0.6 −1.2 −0.6 −0.02 −0.05 −0.03
25 Nondefense 0.3 0.0 −0.3 0.01 0.00 −0.01
26 State and local 2.0 2.6 0.6 0.22 0.28 0.06
  Addenda:
27 Final sales of domestic product 2.0 1.7 −0.3 --- --- ---
28 Gross domestic purchases price index 3.1 3.0 −0.1 --- --- ---
29 GDP price index 3.1 3.0 −0.1 --- --- ---
GDP
Gross domestic product
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment and the capital consumption adjustment) decreased $21.1 billion, or 0.6 percent at a quarterly rate, in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, profits increased $133.5 billion, or 4.1 percent (table 5). In the first quarter, domestic profits of financial corporations increased $73.7 billion, domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations decreased $114.1 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits (net) increased $19.3 billion.

Estimates of corporate profits were reduced by several settlements that were finalized in the first quarter. Settlements are recorded in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) on an accrual basis in the quarter when the settlement is finalized, regardless of when they are recorded on a company's financial statement. In the first quarter:

  • Paper manufacturer 3M and chemical makers Chemours, DuPont de Nemours, and Corteva reached settlements with U.S. local governments in the amount of $10.3 billion ($41.2 billion at an annual rate) and $1.2 billion ($4.7 billion at an annual rate), respectively, over contaminated water claims.
  • Diesel engine manufacturer Cummins agreed to pay $1.7 billion ($6.7 billion at an annual rate) in penalties for alleged violations of the Clean Air Act and California law.

The estimate of GDI was not impacted, because these settlements were recorded in the NIPAs as business current transfer payments to government, which offset the reduction to corporate profits.

Table 5. Corporate Profits
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
  Current production measures:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj 3,393.1 6.9 108.7 133.5 −21.1 0.2 3.4 4.1 −0.6
2 Domestic industries 2,859.9 −15.2 99.9 142.4 −40.4 −0.6 3.8 5.2 −1.4
3 Financial 532.2 −54.2 9.0 5.9 73.7 −10.9 2.0 1.3 16.1
4 Nonfinancial 2,327.6 39.0 90.8 136.5 −114.1 1.8 4.1 5.9 −4.7
5 Rest of the world 533.3 22.1 8.8 −8.9 19.3 4.5 1.7 −1.7 3.8
6 Receipts from the rest of the world 1,044.1 25.8 22.0 −20.1 29.8 2.6 2.2 −1.9 2.9
7 Less: Payments to the rest of the world 510.8 3.7 13.2 −11.2 10.5 0.7 2.6 −2.2 2.1
9 Less: Taxes on corporate income 638.6 −6.3 12.6 28.2 27.6 −1.1 2.2 4.8 4.5
10 Equals: Profits after tax 2,754.5 13.2 96.1 105.2 −48.6 0.5 3.7 3.9 −1.7
11 Net dividends 1,893.6 15.6 −18.2 23.8 32.2 0.8 −1.0 1.3 1.7
12 Undistributed profits from current production 860.9 −2.4 114.3 81.4 −80.8 −0.3 15.3 9.5 −8.6
13 Net cash flow with IVA 3,389.3 32.3 142.1 118.2 −75.0 1.0 4.4 3.5 −2.2
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Accounts tables 1.12 and 6.16D.

 

  1. “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  2. In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”