Annual Update of the U.S. International Transactions Accounts

In June 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the results of the 2024 annual update of the U.S. International Transactions Accounts (ITAs).1 For most statistical series, the 2024 update has incorporated (1) newly available and revised source data for 2021–2023 and (2) recalculated seasonal adjustments for quarterly statistics for 2019–2023. For receipts and payments of "other investment income" and for imports of education-related travel services, revised source data were incorporated for 2020–2023. In addition to revisions due to newly available and revised source data and recalculated seasonal adjustments, the annual update reflects the following changes:

  1. Exports of services for 2021–2023 were revised to incorporate a new estimation method for sea freight services. Both exports and imports of services for 2021–2023 were revised to also incorporate refinements to the production process for estimating sea freight and sea port services.
  2. Transactions in equity and investment fund shares and in long-term debt securities—part of transactions in portfolio investment assets and liabilities—are based on more detailed information from the Treasury International Capital System “Aggregate Holdings, Purchases and Sales, and Fair Value Changes of Long-Term Securities by U.S. and Foreign Residents” form (TIC SLT) than the information used for the June 2023 and earlier annual updates. The TIC SLT was recently expanded, and the more detailed information was introduced into the ITAs in September 2023 for statistics beginning with the first quarter of 2023.2

For 2020–2023, this annual update did not alter the overall picture of U.S. international transactions. Revisions to both the current-account deficit and net borrowing from financial-account transactions did not alter the direction of change (increase or decrease) for any of the revised years (table A and charts 1 and 2).

The next section of this article discusses the new estimation method for sea freight exports and other improvements to the statistics for sea transport services and the newly available TIC SLT source data for portfolio investment. The final section summarizes the effects of the revisions on the current account, the financial account, and the statistical discrepancy of the ITAs.

The appendix provides a numerical summary of quarterly revisions to key ITA balances. For a comparison of this year's revisions with revisions from past annual updates, see the box “2024 Annual Update in a Historical Context.” U.S. International Economic Accounts: Concepts and Methods has been updated to reflect the new estimation method for sea freight services exports and the newly available source data for portfolio investment.

New estimation method for sea freight services exports and refinements to production process for sea transport services

With this annual update, for statistics beginning with 2021, BEA has implemented a new methodology for estimating receipts of U.S.-operated vessels for transporting U.S. goods exports to foreign ports.3 These receipts are components of sea freight services exports. Sea freight exports also include receipts for transporting goods between foreign ports and for operating leases of transportation equipment; however, these components are not affected by the methodology change.

Previously, BEA estimated sea freight exports for transportation between U.S. and foreign ports using U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) source data on the volume of cargo (in tons) exported from the United States combined with IHS Markit data on vessel ownership to identify the share of outbound cargo transported on U.S.-operated vessels. These outbound-vessel departure data were then multiplied by an estimated freight rate (that is, the revenues earned by U.S. operators per ton shipped) based on a combination of BEA's Quarterly Survey of Ocean Freight Revenues and Foreign Expenses of U.S. Carriers and global rate indexes.4 With this annual update, BEA has replaced this method with a new method that imputes total freight charges (that is, freight rates multiplied by tonnage) for outbound voyages in the CBP/IHS Markit data using information on freight charges in the inbound CBP data. BEA fits a statistical model to U.S.-operated vessels in the inbound data to estimate total freight charges for U.S.-operated vessels in the outbound data based on common fields in the two datasets. Although this methodology change did not contribute substantially to the revisions to total services exports, it resulted in more accurate measures of total freight charges at both the global level and the country level.

With this annual update, BEA has also incorporated refinements to the production process, including using more robust entity-matching techniques to merge the CBP and IHS Markit datasets, for estimating exports and imports of sea freight and sea port services. These refinements resulted in relatively small revisions at the global level but improved the quality of country-level estimates. Revisions resulting from these refinements and the new estimation method for sea freight exports are reflected in ITA tables 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3.

Newly available source data for portfolio investment

Historically, BEA estimated financial asset and liability transactions in portfolio investment equity and investment fund shares and in long-term debt securities by imputing transactions from positions data in the TIC SLT. Statistics for U.S. residents' net purchases of foreign equity and long-term debt securities and for foreign residents' net purchases of U.S equity and long-term debt securities were based on (1) changes in quarterly holdings of these securities reported on the TIC SLT; (2) changes in the value of the holdings based on broad market price indexes from Morgan Stanley Capital International, S&P Dow Jones Indices, and Intercontinental Exchange; and (3) other changes in reported holdings not due to transactions or valuation, such as changes in reporting panels. Transactions equaled holdings reported at the end of the reference quarter less (1) holdings reported at the end of the preceding quarter and (2) the sum of changes in the value of the holdings caused by changes in prices and exchange rates and other changes in holdings not due to transactions or valuation.

With the expansion of the TIC SLT in late 2022 to provide directly reported transactions for portfolio investment equity and investment fund shares and for long-term debt securities, BEA incorporated these newly available source data into the ITAs in September 2023 for statistics beginning with the first quarter of 2023.5 Incorporation of these data has improved the accuracy of the measures of financial transactions in portfolio investment equity and investment fund shares and in long-term debt securities in the ITAs. Data from the expanded TIC SLT are reflected in ITA tables 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 7.1, and 9.1.

Current-account highlights

Current-account statistics were updated to incorporate newly available and revised source data for 2020–2023 as well as the new estimation method for sea freight services exports (table B). For most quarters, the revisions did not affect the direction (increase or decrease) of the quarter-to-quarter changes in the current-account deficit; exceptions were the first and fourth quarters of 2021 and the first and fourth quarters of 2023 (chart 3). The largest quarterly revisions in absolute terms were for the third and fourth quarters of 2023.

Exports of goods and services and income receipts were revised for 2020–2023. Chart 4 presents the revisions by component. The downward revisions to primary income mainly reflect newly available and revised source data from BEA's surveys of direct investment. The upward revisions to services for 2022 and 2023 mainly reflect newly available and revised source data for charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. (not included elsewhere) from BEA's surveys of international services and for travel from various sources, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS), the Institute of International Education (IIE), and Statistics Canada. The upward revision to secondary income for 2023 mostly reflects updated insurance-related transfers from BEA's insurance services surveys.

Imports of goods and services and income payments were revised for 2020–2023. Chart 5 presents the revisions by component. The upward revisions to services primarily reflect newly available and revised source data for insurance services, for telecommunications, computer, and information services, and for charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. from BEA's surveys of international services and for travel from SEVIS, IIE, and Statistics Canada. The upward revisions to secondary income for 2022 and 2023 mostly reflect updated insurance-related transfers from BEA's insurance services surveys and newly available and revised source data for charitable donations from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Internal Revenue Service and for personal transfers from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey. The upward revision to primary income for 2023 reflects an upward revision to portfolio investment income that was partly offset by a downward revision to direct investment income. The former was due to newly available and revised source data from the TIC SLT, and the latter was due to newly available and revised source data from BEA's surveys of direct investment.

Financial-account highlights

Financial-account statistics were updated to incorporate newly available and revised source data for 2020–2023, including revised data from the expanded TIC SLT for 2023 (table C). The revisions to the quarterly statistics generally did not affect the direction of most quarter-to-quarter changes in net borrowing; the exception was the third quarter of 2021 (chart 6).6 The largest revisions in absolute terms were for the third quarter of 2022 and the first and second quarters of 2023.

Net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives was revised for 2020–2023. Chart 7 presents the revisions by component. The downward revision for 2021 reflects a downward revision to direct investment. The downward revision for 2022 mostly reflects downward revisions to portfolio and direct investment. The revision for 2023 reflects upward revisions to “other investment” and portfolio investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to direct investment. Revisions to direct investment reflect newly available and revised source data from BEA's surveys of direct investment. Revisions to portfolio and other investment reflect newly available and revised source data from the TIC reporting system; revised data from other sources also contributed to the revisions to other investment.7

Net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives was revised for 2020–2023. Chart 8 presents the revisions by component. The downward revision for 2021 reflects a downward revision to direct investment. The revision for 2022 reflects a downward revision to portfolio investment that was partly offset by an upward revision to direct investment. The revision for 2023 reflects upward revisions to portfolio and other investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to direct investment. Revisions to direct investment reflect newly available and revised source data from BEA's surveys of direct investment. Revisions to portfolio and other investment reflect newly available and revised source data from the TIC reporting system; revised data from other sources also contributed to the revisions to other investment.

Statistical discrepancy

The statistical discrepancy is net lending or borrowing measured by recorded transactions in the financial account less the combined balances on recorded transactions in the current and capital accounts. In principle, the former (which is calculated as the difference between net acquisition of assets and net incurrence of liabilities including financial derivatives) and the latter (which is calculated as the difference between total credits and total debits in the current and capital accounts) should be equal.8 In practice, however, they differ because of incomplete source data, gaps in coverage, and timing differences. Table A and chart 9 present the revised and previously published statistical discrepancy for 2020–2023.


Footnotes

  1. Results of the annual update of the U.S. International Investment Position (IIP) Accounts were also released in June. For a discussion of the revisions to the IIP Accounts, see Erin Whitaker, “U.S. Net International Investment Position: First Quarter of 2024 and Annual Update,” Survey of Current Business (July 2024).
  2. For 2023, both preliminary statistics that were released in March 2024 and revised statistics that were released in June 2024 reflect the use of more detailed information from the expanded TIC SLT. For periods prior to 2023, the statistics still reflect the use of the less detailed information from the pre-expanded TIC SLT. (See the “Technical Note” that accompanies the “U.S. International Transactions, 2nd Quarter 2023” news release for more information.) As a result, the effects of incorporating the more detailed information are not directly reflected in the revisions discussed in this article.
  3. Statistical guidelines assume that the importer, or foreign purchaser, pays the cost of transporting goods from the country of export to the country of import.
  4. Although the methodology for sea freight imports is similar, it is not necessary to estimate freight rates for sea freight imports because, unlike outbound CBP data, inbound CBP source data on vessel arrivals contain reported total freight charges for the volume of cargo imported into the United States.
  5. The expanded TIC SLT also provides newly available source data on valuation changes for portfolio investment equity and investment fund shares and for long-term debt securities in the IIP Accounts. For more information on these new data in the IIP Accounts, see “Whitaker,” Survey (July 2024).
  6. Revisions to net borrowing reflect the combined revisions to net U.S. acquisition of financial assets excluding financial derivatives, to net U.S. incurrence of liabilities excluding financial derivatives, and to net transactions in financial derivatives.
  7. Revised data from the following TIC surveys were incorporated: (1) Aggregate Holdings, Purchases and Sales, and Fair Value Changes of Long-Term Securities by U.S. and Foreign Residents, (2) Foreign-Residents' Holdings of U.S. Securities, including Selected Money Market Instruments, (3) U.S. Ownership of Foreign Securities, including Selected Money Market Instruments, (4) Reports by Financial Institutions of Liabilities to, and Claims on, Foreign Residents by U.S. Residents, and (5) Reports of Liabilities to, and Claims on, Unaffiliated Foreign Residents by U.S. Resident Non-Financial Institutions.
  8. Credits include exports, income receipts, capital transfer receipts, and sales of nonproduced nonfinancial assets. Debits include imports, income payments, capital transfer payments, and purchases of nonproduced nonfinancial assets.