GDP and the Economy

Advance Estimates for the Third Quarter of 2024

November 5, 2024

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “advance” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

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Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2024:Q3

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The increase in third-quarter real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2

  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. The increase in goods was led by other nondurable goods (mainly prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts (mainly used light trucks). The increase in services was led by health care (mainly outpatient services) and food services and accommodations.
  • The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).
  • The increase in federal government spending primarily reflected an increase in defense consumption expenditures.
  • The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).

Compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.

Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP
(percent)		 Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2024 2023 2024 2023 2024
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 GDP1 100.0 3.2 1.6 3.0 2.8 3.2 1.6 3.0 2.8
2 Personal consumption expenditures 67.9 3.5 1.9 2.8 3.7 2.33 1.30 1.90 2.46
3 Goods 21.4 3.4 −1.2 3.0 6.0 0.73 −0.25 0.63 1.25
4 Durable goods 7.4 2.9 −1.8 5.5 8.1 0.22 −0.13 0.40 0.58
5 Nondurable goods 14.0 3.6 −0.8 1.7 4.9 0.51 −0.12 0.23 0.67
6 Services 46.6 3.5 3.4 2.7 2.6 1.60 1.55 1.27 1.21
7 Gross private domestic investment 18.2 0.7 3.6 8.3 0.3 0.16 0.64 1.47 0.07
8 Fixed investment 17.9 3.5 6.5 2.3 1.3 0.62 1.14 0.42 0.24
9 Nonresidential 13.9 3.8 4.5 3.9 3.3 0.52 0.61 0.53 0.46
10 Structures 3.1 6.5 6.3 0.2 −4.0 0.20 0.20 0.01 −0.13
11 Equipment 5.3 0.7 0.3 9.8 11.1 0.04 0.02 0.49 0.56
12 Intellectual property products 5.5 5.2 7.5 0.7 0.6 0.28 0.40 0.04 0.03
13 Residential 4.0 2.5 13.7 −2.8 −5.1 0.10 0.53 −0.11 −0.21
14 Change in private inventories 0.3 --- --- --- --- −0.47 −0.49 1.05 −0.17
15 Net exports of goods and services −3.2 --- --- --- --- 0.09 −0.61 −0.90 −0.56
16 Exports 10.9 6.2 1.9 1.0 8.9 0.66 0.21 0.12 0.94
17 Goods 7.1 5.3 −0.2 0.9 12.2 0.37 −0.02 0.07 0.83
18 Services 3.8 8.0 6.1 1.2 3.0 0.29 0.23 0.05 0.11
19 Imports 14.2 4.2 6.1 7.6 11.2 −0.57 −0.82 −1.01 −1.49
20 Goods 11.4 1.8 6.5 8.4 11.6 −0.19 −0.69 −0.90 −1.24
21 Services 2.8 14.8 4.8 4.3 9.4 −0.38 −0.13 −0.12 −0.25
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 17.2 3.6 1.8 3.1 5.0 0.61 0.30 0.52 0.85
23 Federal 6.5 −0.3 −0.4 4.3 9.7 −0.02 −0.02 0.27 0.60
24 National defense 3.7 −1.3 −2.5 6.4 14.9 −0.05 −0.09 0.23 0.51
25 Nondefense 2.7 0.9 2.6 1.5 3.2 0.02 0.07 0.04 0.09
26 State and local 10.7 6.1 3.1 2.3 2.3 0.63 0.32 0.25 0.25
Addenda:
27 GDI2 --- 5.1 3.0 3.4 --- --- --- --- ---
28 Average of GDP and GDI --- 4.1 2.3 3.2 --- --- --- --- ---
29 Final sales of domestic product --- 3.7 2.1 1.9 3.0 --- --- --- ---
30 Goods 30.2 2.5 −3.6 5.2 4.8 0.80 −1.12 1.56 1.45
31 Services 61.0 2.8 3.2 2.4 2.8 1.67 1.91 1.48 1.70
32 Structures 8.8 8.6 9.9 −0.6 −3.6 0.73 0.85 −0.05 −0.33
GDI
Gross domestic income
GDP
Gross domestic product
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

Note. Percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) tables 1.1.1 and 1.2.1, contributions are from NIPA tables 1.1.2 and 1.2.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10 or are calculated from NIPA table 1.2.5.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) featured measure of inflation for the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter after increasing 2.4 percent in the second quarter (table 2 and chart 3).

Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter after decreasing 0.5 percent in the second quarter. Prices for energy goods and services decreased 12.6 percent after increasing 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.3 percent after increasing 2.6 percent.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter after increasing 2.5 percent in the second quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for services, which was partly offset by a decrease in prices for goods.

  • Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were housing and utilities (mainly housing), health care (led by hospitals), and financial services and insurance (mainly banking and other financial services).
  • Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were gasoline and other energy goods (mainly motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids) and motor vehicles and parts (led by used light trucks).

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 2.2 percent in the third quarter, following an increase of 2.8 percent in the second quarter.

Chart 3. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases

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Table 2. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index numbers (2017=100)]
Line Series Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices
(percentage points)
2023 2024 2023 2024
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 Gross domestic purchases1 1.7 3.0 2.4 1.8 1.7 3.0 2.5 1.8
2 Personal consumption expenditures 1.7 3.4 2.5 1.5 1.10 2.25 1.67 1.00
3 Goods −1.6 −0.5 0.7 −1.6 −0.33 −0.10 0.15 −0.33
4 Durable goods −3.2 −0.5 −2.6 −2.4 −0.24 −0.03 −0.18 −0.17
5 Nondurable goods −0.7 −0.5 2.5 −1.2 −0.09 −0.07 0.33 −0.16
6 Services 3.2 5.3 3.4 3.0 1.43 2.36 1.52 1.33
7 Gross private domestic investment 2.2 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.37 0.16 0.44 0.40
8 Fixed investment 2.3 0.9 2.6 2.5 0.40 0.16 0.45 0.43
9 Nonresidential 1.7 1.3 2.3 2.4 0.23 0.18 0.31 0.33
10 Structures 3.4 −2.0 0.3 0.3 0.11 −0.06 0.01 0.01
11 Equipment 1.1 3.8 1.7 2.4 0.06 0.19 0.08 0.12
12 Intellectual property products 1.2 1.0 4.0 3.6 0.06 0.06 0.21 0.19
13 Residential 4.5 −0.4 3.5 2.7 0.17 −0.02 0.14 0.11
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- --- −0.03 0.00 −0.01 −0.03
15 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 1.3 3.7 2.1 2.5 0.23 0.62 0.34 0.41
16 Federal 3.8 3.6 2.8 1.8 0.24 0.22 0.17 0.11
17 National defense 4.9 3.8 2.7 1.2 0.17 0.13 0.09 0.04
18 Nondefense 2.5 3.2 3.0 2.5 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.07
19 State and local −0.1 3.9 1.6 2.9 −0.01 0.40 0.17 0.30
  Addenda:
  Gross domestic purchases:                
20 Food 1.2 2.3 −0.5 1.4 0.06 0.12 −0.02 0.07
21 Energy goods and services −5.2 −1.3 2.5 −12.6 −0.15 −0.03 0.06 −0.34
22 Excluding food and energy 1.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 1.80 2.95 2.41 2.09
  Personal consumption expenditures:                
23 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption 1.3 2.1 −0.4 1.6 --- --- --- ---
24 Energy goods and services −5.4 −1.2 2.4 −12.4 --- --- --- ---
25 Excluding food and energy 2.0 3.7 2.8 2.2 --- --- --- ---
26 Gross domestic product 1.5 3.0 2.5 1.8 --- --- --- ---
27 Exports of goods and services −2.1 2.5 2.7 −1.4 --- --- --- ---
28 Imports of goods and services 0.0 2.6 2.1 −0.9 --- --- --- ---
  1. The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $221.3 billion in the third quarter, compared to an increase of $315.7 billion in the second quarter (table 3). The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected an increase in compensation (led by private wages and salaries).

Personal current taxes increased $55.3 billion in the third quarter, the same increase as in the second quarter.

Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased $166.0 billion in the third quarter after increasing $260.4 billion in the second quarter. Personal outlays increased $258.7 billion after increasing $277.0 billion.

Real DPI (chart 4) increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter after increasing 2.4 percent in the second quarter. Current-dollar DPI, which is deflated by the implicit price deflator for consumer spending, increased 3.1 percent after increasing 5.0 percent.

The personal saving rate (chart 5)—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 4.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with 5.2 percent in the second quarter.

Chart 4. Personal Saving Rate

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Chart 5. Real Disposable Personal Income

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Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition
[Billions of dollars; quarterly estimates are seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Level Change from preceding period
2024 2023 2024
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
1 Personal income 24,659.9 24,881.1 275.4 536.4 315.7 221.3
2 Compensation of employees 15,043.9 15,230.7 169.8 342.5 220.1 186.8
3 Wages and salaries 12,434.8 12,585.3 131.4 295.6 183.9 150.4
4 Private industries 10,591.6 10,713.5 101.7 260.0 156.8 122.0
5 Goods-producing industries 1,966.6 1,989.4 20.4 44.3 38.4 22.7
6 Manufacturing 1,146.7 1,159.3 9.4 20.4 23.5 12.6
7 Services-producing industries 8,624.9 8,724.2 81.3 215.7 118.5 99.2
8 Trade, transportation, and utilities 1,875.5 1,892.0 14.6 34.6 17.0 16.5
9 Other services-producing industries 6,749.4 6,832.2 66.7 181.2 101.5 82.7
10 Government 1,843.3 1,871.8 29.7 35.6 27.1 28.5
11 Supplements to wages and salaries 2,609.0 2,645.4 38.4 46.9 36.2 36.4
12 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj 2,002.3 2,014.7 15.6 2.0 30.2 12.4
13 Farm 41.1 40.6 −16.1 −11.7 2.5 −0.4
14 Nonfarm 1,961.2 1,974.1 31.6 13.7 27.6 12.9
15 Rental income of persons with CCAdj 1,053.4 1,057.3 18.6 32.5 7.3 3.9
16 Personal income receipts on assets 3,950.2 3,926.7 82.8 19.9 11.3 −23.5
17 Personal interest income 1,966.2 1,955.6 56.6 −14.3 15.2 −10.6
18 Personal dividend income 1,984.0 1,971.2 26.3 34.2 −4.0 −12.8
19 Personal current transfer receipts 4,512.3 4,573.6 8.2 169.6 66.2 61.3
20 Government social benefits to persons 4,380.1 4,441.0 9.1 158.1 65.5 60.9
21 Social security 1,439.7 1,452.6 13.3 52.6 13.2 12.8
22 Medicare 1,067.1 1,090.2 15.4 13.9 17.9 23.1
23 Medicaid 924.7 939.9 −11.0 48.6 19.8 15.2
24 Unemployment insurance 34.9 35.7 0.6 −0.3 0.0 0.7
25 Veterans' benefits 216.7 221.5 5.9 5.1 5.0 4.8
26 Other 696.8 701.1 −15.1 38.2 9.5 4.2
27 Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) 132.3 132.6 −0.9 11.5 0.8 0.3
28 Less: Contributions for government social insurance 1,902.2 1,921.9 19.6 30.0 19.4 19.7
29 Less: Personal current taxes 3,020.9 3,076.2 28.3 71.3 55.3 55.3
30 Equals: Disposable personal income 21,638.9 21,804.9 247.1 465.1 260.4 166.0
31 Less: Personal outlays 20,507.5 20,766.2 247.8 259.2 277.0 258.7
32 Personal consumption expenditures 19,682.7 19,935.2 241.2 254.6 257.9 252.5
33 Personal interest payments1 551.7 556.2 2.7 2.2 17.4 4.4
34 Personal current transfer payments 273.1 274.8 3.9 2.5 1.7 1.7
35 Equals: Personal saving 1,131.4 1,038.7 −0.7 205.8 −16.6 −92.7
36 Personal saving as a percentage of DPI 5.2 4.8 --- --- --- ---
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
DPI
Disposable personal income
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment
  1. Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons.

Note. Dollar levels and percent changes are from National Income and Product Account tables 2.1 and 2.2B.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

  1. “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  2. In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”