GDP and the Economy

Second Estimates for the First Quarter of 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the “second” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 With the second estimate, real GDP growth was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the “advance” estimate, issued last month. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

The decrease in first-quarter real GDP primarily reflected an increase in imports (which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP) and a decrease in federal government spending that were partly offset by increases in inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and consumer spending (chart 2 and table 1).2

  • Imports primarily reflected U.S. Census Bureau (Census)-U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) U.S. international trade in goods and services data as well as data from the Census Advance Economic Indicators Report for March.
    • Within imports, the increase primarily reflected an increase in imported goods, led by consumer goods, except food and automotive (mainly medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical preparations, including vitamins), and by capital goods, except automotive (mainly computers, peripherals, and parts).
    • Within imports of industrial supplies and materials in the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), BEA identified and removed an increase in imports of silver bars in the first quarter. Like nonmonetary gold, silver can be used for two purposes: for industrial use (as an input into the production of goods and services) and for investment (as a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation). The NEAs do not treat transactions in valuables, such as nonmonetary gold and silver, as investments, and therefore, purchases of metals as a form of investment are not included in consumer spending, gross private domestic investment, or government spending. For more information, refer to “How are exports and imports of nonmonetary gold treated in BEA’s National Economic Accounts?”.
  • The decrease in federal government spending was led by defense consumption expenditures.
  • The increase in inventory investment was led by wholesale trade (mainly motor vehicles and drugs and sundries) and manufacturing (notably, chemical manufacturing).
  • Within nonresidential fixed investment, the increase was led by equipment. Within equipment, the increase was led by information processing and related equipment (mainly computers and peripheral equipment and communication equipment).
  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, increases were widespread, led by spending on health care, housing and utilities, and “other services.” Within goods, an increase in nondurable goods was partly offset by a decrease in durable goods.

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports and decelerations in consumer spending, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by upturns in inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 2.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

BEA's featured measure of inflation for the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 3.3 percent in the first quarter after increasing 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter (chart 3 and table 2).

Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter after increasing 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Prices for energy goods and services increased 8.3 percent after decreasing 4.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 3.2 percent after increasing 2.3 percent.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.6 percent in the first quarter after increasing 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for both services and goods.

  • Within services, increases were widespread. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (mainly housing), financial services and insurance (mainly banking and other financial services), recreation services (led by membership clubs, sports centers, parks, theaters, and museums), and health care (mainly hospital and nursing home services).
  • Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were “other nondurable goods” (led by pharmaceutical and “other medical products”) and food and beverages.

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $421.5 billion in the first quarter, compared to an increase of $325.5 billion in the fourth quarter (table 3). The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal current transfer receipts.

  • The increase in compensation was led by private wages and salaries, based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics program.
    • In the first quarter, wages and salaries in services-producing industries increased $111.9 billion. Wages and salaries in goods-producing industries increased $25.8 billion.
    • Some federal government employees opted to accept a Deferred Resignation Program (DRP) offer. Federal workers who accepted the DRP offer are counted as employed in the BLS source data. Because these employees will continue to receive compensation until they officially separate from the federal government, BEA made no adjustment to personal income as a result of this program. For additional information, refer to “How are reductions to the federal workforce reflected in GDP?”.
  • The increase in personal current transfer receipts was led by Social Security benefits, reflecting a January cost-of-living adjustment based on data from the Social Security Administration.

Personal current taxes increased $70.1 billion in the first quarter after increasing $63.5 billion in the fourth quarter.

Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $351.4 billion in the first quarter after increasing $262.1 billion in the fourth quarter.

Real DPI (chart 4), which is deflated by the implicit price deflator for consumer spending, increased 2.9 percent after increasing 2.5 percent. Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—increased $233.0 billion after increasing $316.6 billion.

The personal saving rate (chart 5)—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 4.3 percent in the first quarter, compared with 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

With the release of the second estimate of GDP, BEA also released revised estimates of fourth-quarter wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, based on updated data from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program.

  • Wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $202.1 billion in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of $46.9 billion.
  • Personal current taxes are now estimated to have increased $63.5 billion, an upward revision of $12.2 billion.
  • Contributions for government social insurance are now estimated to have increased $26.9 billion, an upward revision of $6.3 billion.
  • With the incorporation of these new data, real GDI is now estimated to have increased 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point from the previously published estimate.

The decrease in first-quarter real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and state and local government spending (table 4).

  • An upward revision to private inventory investment primarily reflected an updated BEA adjustment to Census book value data to account for notable increases in imports. Updated and newly available industry information impacted the adjustment and led to an upward revision to nondurable-goods manufacturing (specifically, chemical manufacturing) that was largely offset by a downward revision to nondurable-goods wholesale trade (drugs and sundries). Private inventory investment in “other industries” (mainly information) was also revised up, based on new Census Quarterly Financial Report data.
  • Within imports, the leading contributor to the upward revision was “other goods” and durable industrial supplies and materials.
  • Within state and local government spending, the leading contributor to the upward revision was gross investment to equipment.

Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment and the capital consumption adjustment) decreased $118.1 billion, or 2.9 percent at a quarterly rate, in the first quarter after increasing $204.7 billion, or 5.4 percent, in the fourth quarter (table 5). Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $9.1 billion, profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $96.7 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits decreased $30.6 billion.

 


  1. “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the August 2024 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  2. In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”