GDP and the Economy

Third Estimates for the First Quarter of 2025

July 10, 2025

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the “third” estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) (chart 1 and table 1).1 With the third estimate, real GDP growth was revised down 0.3 percentage point from the “second” estimate, issued last month. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter

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Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2025:Q1

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The decrease in first-quarter real GDP primarily reflected an increase in imports (which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP) and a decrease in federal government spending that were partly offset by increases in inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and consumer spending (chart 2 and table 1).2

  • Imports primarily reflected U.S. Census Bureau (Census)-U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services data.
    • Within imports, the increase primarily reflected an increase in imported goods, led by consumer goods, except food and automotive (mainly medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical preparations, including vitamins), and by capital goods, except automotive (mainly computers, peripherals, and parts).
    • Within imports of industrial supplies and materials, BEA identified and removed an increase in imports of silver bars in the first quarter. Like nonmonetary gold, silver can be used for two purposes: for industrial use (as an input into the production of goods and services) and for investment (as a store of wealth and a hedge against inflation). The National Economic Accounts (NEAs) do not treat transactions in valuables, such as nonmonetary gold and silver, as investments, and therefore, purchases of metals as a form of investment are not included in consumer spending, gross private domestic investment, or government spending. For more information, refer to “How are exports and imports of nonmonetary gold treated in BEA's National Economic Accounts?”.
  • The decrease in federal government spending was led by defense consumption expenditures.
  • The increase in inventory investment was led by widespread increases in wholesale trade industries (led by motor vehicles, electrical goods, and machinery equipment) and in manufacturing (notably chemical manufacturing).
  • Within nonresidential fixed investment, the increase was led by equipment. Within equipment, the increase was led by information processing and related equipment (mainly computers and peripheral equipment and communication equipment).
  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the increase was led by spending on housing and utilities, health care, and “other services.” Within goods, widespread increases in nondurable goods were partly offset by a decrease in durable goods (led by motor vehicles and parts).

Compared to the fourth quarter, the downturn in real GDP in the first quarter reflected an upturn in imports, a deceleration in consumer spending, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by upturns in inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment.

Real gross domestic income (GDI)—which measures output of the economy as the costs incurred and the incomes earned in the production of goods and services (as measured by GDP)—increased 0.2 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI—a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI—decreased 0.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment, increased 1.9 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter.

Table 1. Real GDP by Expenditure and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP
(percent)		 Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 GDP1 100.0 3.0 3.1 2.4 −0.5 3.0 3.1 2.4 −0.5
2 Personal consumption expenditures 68.3 2.8 3.7 4.0 0.5 1.90 2.48 2.70 0.31
3 Goods 21.3 3.0 5.6 6.2 0.1 0.63 1.18 1.30 0.01
4 Durable goods 7.4 5.5 7.6 12.4 −3.7 0.40 0.54 0.87 −0.28
5 Nondurable goods 13.9 1.7 4.6 3.1 2.1 0.23 0.63 0.42 0.29
6 Services 47.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 0.6 1.27 1.31 1.41 0.30
7 Gross private domestic investment 18.7 8.3 0.8 −5.6 23.8 1.47 0.16 −1.03 3.90
8 Fixed investment 18.0 2.3 2.1 −1.1 7.6 0.42 0.38 −0.20 1.31
9 Nonresidential 13.9 3.9 4.0 −3.0 10.3 0.53 0.55 −0.41 1.36
10 Structures 3.1 0.2 −5.0 2.9 −2.4 0.01 −0.16 0.09 −0.07
11 Equipment 5.3 9.8 10.8 −8.7 23.7 0.49 0.54 −0.47 1.11
12 Intellectual property products 5.5 0.7 3.1 −0.5 6.0 0.04 0.17 −0.03 0.32
13 Residential 4.0 −2.8 −4.3 5.5 −1.3 −0.11 −0.18 0.22 −0.05
14 Change in private inventories 0.7 --- --- --- --- 1.05 −0.22 −0.84 2.59
15 Net exports of goods and services −4.2 --- --- --- --- −0.90 −0.43 0.26 −4.61
16 Exports 10.9 1.0 9.6 −0.2 0.4 0.12 1.01 −0.01 0.04
17 Goods 7.1 0.9 10.3 −4.6 6.5 0.07 0.70 −0.33 0.44
18 Services 3.8 1.2 8.4 8.5 −9.7 0.05 0.31 0.32 −0.39
19 Imports 15.1 7.6 10.7 −1.9 37.9 −1.01 −1.44 0.27 −4.66
20 Goods 12.2 8.4 10.7 −4.9 51.6 −0.90 −1.14 0.57 −4.84
21 Services 2.8 4.3 11.0 10.9 −6.3 −0.12 −0.29 −0.30 0.18
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 17.2 3.1 5.1 3.1 −0.6 0.52 0.86 0.52 −0.10
23 Federal 6.4 4.3 8.9 4.0 −4.6 0.27 0.55 0.25 −0.31
24 National defense 3.7 6.4 13.9 4.8 −7.1 0.23 0.48 0.18 −0.27
25 Nondefense 2.8 1.5 2.6 2.9 −1.2 0.04 0.07 0.08 −0.03
26 State and local 10.8 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.0 0.25 0.31 0.27 0.21
Addenda:
27 GDI2 --- 2.0 1.4 5.2 0.2 --- --- --- ---
28 Average of GDP and GDI --- 2.5 2.2 3.8 −0.1 --- --- --- ---
29 Final sales of domestic product --- 1.9 3.3 3.3 −3.1 --- --- --- ---
30 Final sales to private domestic purchasers --- 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.9 --- --- --- ---
31 Goods 29.8 5.2 4.7 0.7 −0.8 1.56 1.41 0.23 −0.22
32 Services 61.4 2.4 3.2 3.0 −0.2 1.48 1.92 1.81 −0.12
33 Structures 8.8 −0.6 −2.9 4.7 −1.8 −0.05 −0.26 0.41 −0.16
GDI
Gross domestic income
GDP
Gross domestic product
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

Note. Percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) tables 1.1.1 and 1.2.1, contributions are from NIPA tables 1.1.2 and 1.2.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10 or are calculated from NIPA table 1.2.5.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The third estimate of GDP includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP. The decrease in the first quarter reflected decreases of 2.8 percent in private goods-producing industries and 0.3 percent in private services-producing industries that were partly offset by an increase of 2.0 percent in government (chart 3 and table 2). Overall, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the decrease in real GDP (chart 4).

  • Within private goods-producing industries, the leading contributors to the decrease were agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting as well as mining (led by oil and gas extraction).
  • Within private services-producing industries, the leading contributors to the decrease were finance and insurance (led by Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities), wholesale trade, and retail trade (led by motor vehicle and parts dealers). These decreases were partly offset by increases in real estate and rental and leasing as well as information.
  • The increase in government was led by state and local government.
Chart 3. Real GDP by Sector: Percent Change from Preceding Period

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Chart 4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP by Industry Group, 2025:Q1

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Table 2. Real GDP by Industry Group and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Share of current-dollar GDP
(percent)		 Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 GDP1 100.0 3.0 3.1 2.4 −0.5 3.0 3.1 2.4 −0.5
2 Private industries 88.6 3.3 3.2 2.4 −0.8 2.90 2.83 2.12 −0.71
3 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.8 23.8 −7.8 0.8 −27.7 0.18 −0.07 0.01 −0.28
4 Mining 1.4 −4.9 1.3 7.2 −11.6 −0.06 0.02 0.09 −0.16
5 Utilities 1.5 5.6 −1.0 11.5 −7.9 0.09 −0.01 0.16 −0.12
6 Construction 4.5 5.2 −0.2 4.8 −0.6 0.23 −0.01 0.21 −0.03
7 Manufacturing 9.7 8.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 0.79 0.33 0.07 0.00
8 Durable goods 5.2 5.8 3.0 −0.9 0.4 0.31 0.16 −0.05 0.02
9 Nondurable Goods 4.4 10.9 3.5 2.5 −0.5 0.48 0.16 0.12 −0.02
10 Wholesale trade 5.9 2.3 3.2 −0.9 −4.3 0.14 0.19 −0.05 −0.26
11 Retail trade 6.3 −0.6 18.7 2.7 −3.2 −0.03 1.10 0.17 −0.20
12 Transporation and warehousing 3.3 0.4 4.2 5.1 −1.8 0.01 0.14 0.17 −0.06
13 Information 5.4 1.6 6.2 1.7 11.0 0.08 0.33 0.09 0.56
14 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 21.3 3.8 0.7 2.8 0.7 0.80 0.15 0.59 0.16
15 Finance and insurance 7.5 6.6 0.3 2.8 −6.5 0.48 0.03 0.21 −0.51
16 Real estate and rental and leasing 13.8 2.3 0.9 2.8 4.9 0.32 0.13 0.38 0.66
17 Professional and business services 13.3 1.9 2.0 2.6 −0.3 0.25 0.27 0.34 −0.04
18 Professional, scientific, and technical services 8.2 2.8 3.6 4.6 1.2 0.23 0.29 0.37 0.09
19 Management of companies and enterprises 1.9 −2.5 2.1 0.1 −6.4 −0.05 0.04 0.00 −0.12
20 Administrative and waste management services 3.2 2.0 −2.0 −1.0 −0.3 0.06 −0.06 −0.03 −0.01
21 Educational services, health care, and social assistance 8.8 3.9 4.7 4.2 1.1 0.33 0.40 0.37 0.09
22 Educational services 1.1 −6.1 4.9 1.9 −2.9 −0.07 0.05 0.02 −0.03
23 Health care and social assistance 7.7 5.4 4.6 4.6 1.7 0.40 0.35 0.34 0.13
24 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accomodation, and food services 4.4 3.1 −0.6 −0.9 −4.8 0.14 −0.03 −0.04 −0.22
25 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 1.2 24.6 −2.2 −2.3 −8.9 0.25 −0.03 −0.03 −0.11
26 Accommodation and food services 3.3 −3.5 0.0 −0.4 −3.2 −0.12 0.00 −0.01 −0.11
27 Other services, except government 2.1 −1.8 1.9 −2.8 −7.0 −0.04 0.04 −0.06 −0.16
28 Government 11.4 0.8 2.1 2.7 2.0 0.09 0.23 0.30 0.22
29 Federal 3.6 1.1 1.1 1.8 0.0 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.00
30 State and local 7.7 0.6 2.5 3.1 2.9 0.05 0.19 0.24 0.22
  Addenda:
31 Private goods-producing industries2 16.4 6.9 1.5 2.3 −2.8 1.14 0.26 0.38 −0.47
32 Private services-producing industries3 72.3 2.4 3.6 2.4 −0.3 1.77 2.57 1.74 −0.24
GDP
Gross domestic product
  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. Consists of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting; mining; construction; and manufacturing.
  3. Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services; and other services, except government.

Note. Percent changes are from these GDP by industry tables: “Value Added by Industry as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product,” “Percent Changes in Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Value Added by Industry,” and “Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product by Industry.”

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real gross output—principally a measure of an industry's sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)—increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter (chart 5 and table 3). This reflected an increase of 1.1 percent in private services-producing industries that was partly offset by decreases of 0.6 percent in both private goods-producing industries and government. Overall, 12 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.

Chart 5. Real Gross Output by Sector: Percent Change from Preceding Period

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Table 3. Real Gross Output by Industry Group and Related Measures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent)
2024 2025
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 All industries 1.8 3.2 1.7 0.6
2 Private industries 1.8 3.1 1.6 0.7
3 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting −0.7 −4.7 0.3 −12.2
4 Mining 2.0 −1.8 0.7 1.2
5 Utilities 10.3 −2.6 0.5 11.6
6 Construction 1.5 0.0 3.7 −0.6
7 Manufacturing 2.6 1.5 −0.9 0.3
8 Durable goods 4.6 3.5 −3.1 1.2
9 Nondurable goods 0.6 −0.5 1.4 −0.7
10 Wholesale trade −0.5 5.9 1.7 0.5
11 Retail trade −0.6 12.3 6.4 −3.5
12 Transporation and warehousing 1.1 4.4 6.1 −3.7
13 Information 2.3 7.9 1.0 11.6
14 Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 1.1 0.4 0.3 2.5
15 Finance and insurance 0.8 1.8 −3.2 2.0
16 Real estate and rental and leasing 1.3 −0.6 2.8 2.9
17 Professional and business services 2.4 3.3 1.8 0.2
18 Professional, scientific, and technical services 3.6 3.8 3.6 0.2
19 Management of companies and enterprises 1.1 5.7 −0.1 1.0
20 Administrative and waste management services 0.6 1.0 −1.1 −0.3
21 Educational services, health care, and social assistance 4.5 6.1 3.2 2.8
22 Educational services 2.0 1.8 0.5 1.1
23 Health care and social assistance 4.8 6.7 3.6 3.0
24 Arts, entertainment, recreation, accomodation, and food services 0.2 0.7 3.8 −4.3
25 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 16.8 1.0 6.8 −8.6
26 Accommodation and food services −4.5 0.5 2.8 −2.8
27 Other services, except government 2.1 7.8 −3.3 −8.4
28 Government 2.2 3.5 3.1 −0.6
29 Federal 1.9 7.1 3.2 −7.1
30 State and local 2.3 2.1 3.0 2.3
  Addenda:
31 Private goods-producing industries1 2.1 0.6 0.3 −0.6
32 Private services-producing industries2 1.7 4.0 2.0 1.1
  1. Consists of agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting; mining; construction; and manufacturing.
  2. Consists of utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; information; finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing; professional and business services; educational services, health care, and social assistance; arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services; and other services, except government.

Note. Percent changes are from the table “Percent Changes in Chain-Type Quantity Indexes for Gross Output by Industry.”

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

BEA's featured measure of inflation for the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter after increasing 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter (chart 6 and table 4).

Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter after increasing 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Prices for energy goods and services increased 8.2 percent after decreasing 4.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 3.3 percent after increasing 2.3 percent.

The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.7 percent in the first quarter after increasing 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for both services and goods.

  • Within services, increases were widespread. The leading contributors were housing and utilities (mainly housing); financial services and insurance (mainly banking and other financial services); health care (mainly hospital and nursing home services); and recreation services (led by membership clubs, sports centers, parks, theaters, and museums).
  • Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical and other medical products) and food and beverages.

Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 3.5 percent in the first quarter, following an increase of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Chart 6. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases

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Table 4. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index numbers (2017=100)]
Line Series Change from preceding period
(percent)		 Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices
(percentage points)
2024 2025 2024 2025
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
1 Gross domestic purchases1 2.4 1.9 2.2 3.4 2.4 1.9 2.2 3.4
2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.5 1.5 2.4 3.7 1.67 1.02 1.57 2.40
3 Goods 0.7 −1.6 −0.4 2.2 0.15 −0.33 −0.07 0.47
4 Durable goods −2.6 −2.4 −0.1 0.9 −0.18 −0.17 0.00 0.07
5 Nondurable goods 2.5 −1.2 −0.5 3.0 0.33 −0.16 −0.07 0.40
6 Services 3.4 3.0 3.7 4.3 1.52 1.35 1.64 1.94
7 Gross private domestic investment 2.5 3.0 1.6 1.2 0.44 0.53 0.28 0.21
8 Fixed investment 2.6 3.2 1.6 1.2 0.45 0.55 0.27 0.22
9 Nonresidential 2.3 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.31 0.42 0.20 0.06
10 Structures 0.3 1.9 −0.6 2.5 0.01 0.06 −0.02 0.07
11 Equipment 1.7 2.5 1.0 0.7 0.08 0.12 0.05 0.04
12 Intellectual property products 4.0 4.4 3.2 −1.1 0.21 0.23 0.17 −0.06
13 Residential 3.5 3.5 1.9 4.1 0.14 0.13 0.07 0.16
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- --- −0.01 −0.02 0.00 0.00
15 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment 2.1 2.4 2.1 4.6 0.34 0.40 0.35 0.75
16 Federal 2.8 2.4 2.7 5.7 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.35
17 National defense 2.7 1.9 2.3 4.9 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.18
18 Nondefense 3.0 3.2 3.1 6.7 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.17
19 State and local 1.6 2.4 1.8 3.9 0.17 0.25 0.19 0.40
Addenda:
  Gross domestic purchases:                
20 Food −0.5 1.3 2.8 2.9 −0.02 0.07 0.14 0.14
21 Energy goods and services 2.5 −12.6 −4.2 8.2 0.06 −0.34 −0.11 0.20
22 Excluding food and energy 2.6 2.4 2.3 3.3 2.41 2.22 2.17 3.03
  Personal consumption expenditures:                
23 Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption −0.4 1.6 2.7 2.9 --- --- --- ---
24 Energy goods and services 2.4 −12.4 −4.2 8.4 --- --- --- ---
25 Excluding food and energy 2.8 2.2 2.6 3.5 --- --- --- ---
26 Gross domestic product 2.5 1.9 2.3 3.8 --- --- --- ---
27 Exports of goods and services 2.7 −0.9 0.2 5.3 --- --- --- ---
28 Imports of goods and services 2.1 −0.2 −0.3 2.1 --- --- --- ---
  1. The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.

Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The decrease in first-quarter real GDP was revised down 0.3 percentage point from the second estimate. The updated estimates primarily reflected downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports (table 5).

  • Within consumer spending, the largest contributor to the revision was services, led by recreation services and transportation services, based on new and revised first-quarter data from the Census Bureau Quarterly Services Survey, as well as other services (led by international travel), based on revised data from BEA's International Transactions Accounts (ITAs).
  • For both exports and imports, the revised estimates primarily reflected updated data from the ITAs.
    • Within exports, the downward revision was to services, led by other business services and charges for the use of intellectual property.
    • Within imports, the revision reflected downward revisions to both services (led by other business services) and goods (led by industrial supplies and materials as well as by capital goods, except automotive).
Table 5. Second and Third Estimates for the First Quarter of 2025
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Line Series Change from preceding period (percent) Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points)
Second estimate Third estimate Third estimate minus second estimate Second estimate Third estimate Third estimate minus second estimate
1 GDP1 −0.2 −0.5 −0.3 −0.2 −0.5 −0.3
2 Personal consumption expenditures 1.2 0.5 −0.7 0.80 0.31 −0.49
3 Goods 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.02 0.01 −0.01
4 Durable goods −3.8 −3.7 0.1 −0.29 −0.28 0.01
5 Nondurable goods 2.2 2.1 −0.1 0.30 0.29 −0.01
6 Services 1.7 0.6 −1.1 0.79 0.30 −0.49
7 Gross private domestic investment 24.4 23.8 −0.6 3.98 3.90 −0.08
8 Fixed investment 7.8 7.6 −0.2 1.34 1.31 −0.03
9 Nonresidential 10.3 10.3 0.0 1.36 1.36 0.00
10 Structures −1.4 −2.4 −1.0 −0.04 −0.07 −0.03
11 Equipment 24.8 23.7 −1.1 1.16 1.11 −0.05
12 Intellectual property products 4.6 6.0 1.4 0.25 0.32 0.07
13 Residential −0.6 −1.3 −0.7 −0.02 −0.05 −0.03
14 Change in private inventories --- --- --- 2.64 2.59 −0.05
15 Net exports of goods and services --- --- --- −4.90 −4.61 0.29
16 Exports 2.4 0.4 −2.0 0.26 0.04 −0.22
17 Goods 5.0 6.5 1.5 0.34 0.44 0.10
18 Services −2.1 −9.7 −7.6 −0.08 −0.39 −0.31
19 Imports 42.6 37.9 −4.7 −5.16 −4.66 0.50
20 Goods 53.3 51.6 −1.7 −4.98 −4.84 0.14
21 Services 6.4 −6.3 −12.7 −0.18 0.18 0.36
22 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment −0.7 −0.6 0.1 −0.12 −0.10 0.02
23 Federal −4.6 −4.6 0.0 −0.30 −0.31 −0.01
24 National defense −7.1 −7.1 0.0 −0.27 −0.27 0.00
25 Nondefense −1.1 −1.2 −0.1 −0.03 −0.03 0.00
26 State and local 1.7 2.0 0.3 0.18 0.21 0.03
  Addenda:
27 Final sales of domestic product −2.9 −3.1 −0.2 --- --- ---
28 Final sales to private domestic purchasers 2.5 1.9 −0.6 --- --- ---
29 GDI2 −0.2 0.2 0.4 --- --- ---
30 Average of GDP and GDI −0.2 −0.1 0.1 --- --- ---
31 Gross domestic purchases price index 3.3 3.4 0.1 --- --- ---
32 GDP price index 3.7 3.8 0.1 --- --- ---
GDI
Gross domestic income
GDP
Gross domestic product

Note. Percent changes are from National Income and Product Account (NIPA) tables 1.1.1, contributions to percent change are from NIPA table 1.1.2, and shares are from NIPA table 1.1.10.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

  1. The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
  2. GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.

Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment and the capital consumption adjustment) decreased $90.6 billion, or 2.3 percent at a quarterly rate, in the first quarter after increasing $204.7 billion, or 5.4 percent, in the fourth quarter (table 6). Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $16.6 billion, profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $69.3 billion, and rest-of-the-world profits decreased $37.9 billion.

Table 6. Corporate Profits
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
  Current production measures:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj 3,916.4 132.5 −15.0 204.7 −90.6 3.6 −0.4 5.4 −2.3
2 Domestic industries 3,435.2 151.2 27.9 122.5 −52.6 4.7 0.8 3.6 −1.5
3 Financial 735.3 42.5 3.0 69.4 16.6 7.0 0.5 10.7 2.3
4 Nonfinancial 2,699.8 108.8 24.9 53.1 −69.3 4.2 0.9 2.0 −2.5
5 Rest of the world 481.2 −18.8 −42.9 82.2 −37.9 −3.8 −8.9 18.8 −7.3
6 Receipts from the rest of the world 976.6 4.4 −61.5 97.2 −72.5 0.4 −6.1 10.2 −6.9
7 Less: Payments to the rest of the world 495.3 23.1 −18.7 15.0 −34.6 4.5 −3.5 2.9 −6.5
9 Less: Taxes on corporate income 712.8 27.6 −2.0 21.2 17.9 4.3 −0.3 3.1 2.6
10 Equals: Profits after tax 3,203.6 104.9 −13.1 183.5 −108.5 3.5 −0.4 5.9 −3.3
11 Net dividends 2,029.9 0.3 −13.2 10.8 36.3 0.0 −0.7 0.5 1.8
12 Undistributed profits from current production 1,173.6 104.6 0.1 172.7 −144.7 10.0 0.0 15.1 −11.0
13 Net cash flow with IVA 3,782.3 169.8 15.6 217.8 −172.0 4.8 0.4 5.8 −4.3
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Accounts tables 1.12 and 6.16D.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Industry profits (corporate profits by industry with inventory valuation adjustment (IVA)) decreased $15.0 billion, or 0.4 percent at a quarterly rate, in the first quarter after increasing $209.2 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the fourth quarter (chart 7 and table 7). Domestic profits increased $22.9 billion in the first quarter, reflecting an increase in both financial and nonfinancial industries (mainly other nonfinancial industries). Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $37.9 billion.

Profits after tax (without IVA and capital consumption adjustment)—BEA's profits measure that is conceptually most like the profits for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index—decreased $28.8 billion in the first quarter after increasing $228.4 billion in the fourth quarter.

Chart 7. Corporate Profits with Inventory Valuation Adjustment in 2025:Q1, Change From Preceding Quarter

[Click chart to expand]

Table 7. Corporate Profits by Industry
[Seasonally adjusted]
Line Series Billions of dollars (annual rate) Percent change from preceding quarter (quarterly rate)
Level Change from preceding quarter
2025 2024 2025 2024 2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
  Industry profits:                  
1 Corporate profits with IVA 4,270.4 138.9 −8.6 209.2 −15.0 3.5 −0.2 5.1 −0.4
2 Domestic industries 3,789.2 157.7 34.3 127.0 22.9 4.6 1.0 3.5 0.6
3 Financial 843.3 44.7 5.6 71.0 20.8 6.4 0.8 9.4 2.5
4 Nonfinancial 2,945.9 113.0 28.7 56.0 2.1 4.1 1.0 1.9 0.1
5 Utilities 59.0 9.3 −9.0 3.7 −2.6 16.2 −13.5 6.4 −4.2
6 Manufacturing 675.4 51.3 −4.0 31.4 −47.0 8.0 −0.6 4.5 −6.5
7 Wholesale trade 290.9 1.8 −4.2 6.9 2.2 0.6 −1.5 2.5 0.8
8 Retail trade 409.0 5.8 22.7 2.4 4.2 1.6 6.0 0.6 1.0
9 Transportation and warehousing 133.4 0.1 −1.3 3.5 1.8 0.0 −1.0 2.7 1.4
10 Information 308.2 22.3 5.3 18.6 11.6 8.9 1.9 6.7 3.9
11 Other nonfinancial 1,069.9 22.4 19.3 −10.5 32.0 2.2 1.9 −1.0 3.1
12 Rest of the world 481.2 −18.8 −42.9 82.2 −37.9 −3.8 −8.9 18.8 −7.3
  Addenda:
13 Profits before tax (without IVA and CCAdj) 4,315.4 125.7 −12.0 249.6 −10.9 3.2 −0.3 6.1 −0.3
14 Profits after tax (without IVA and CCAdj) 3,602.6 98.1 −10.0 228.4 −28.8 3.0 −0.3 6.7 −0.8
15 IVA −45.0 13.2 3.4 −40.4 −4.1 --- --- --- ---
16 CCAdj −354.0 −6.4 −6.4 −4.5 −75.5 --- --- --- ---
CCAdj
Capital consumption adjustment
IVA
Inventory valuation adjustment

Note. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in National Income and Product Accounts tables 1.12, 1.14, 1.15, and 6.16D.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

  1. “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the August 2024 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  2. In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”