Visual Essay

Charting the Economy

Second Quarter of 2025

By Dorian L. Turner  |  September 30, 2025

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its most recent estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) and other key statistics from the National Economic Accounts (NEAs), which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts, on September 25, 2025.1 This quarter's “Charting the Economy” takes a closer look at the economy's performance in April, May, and June, with details on how much people are spending and earning, industry production and profits, and how prices are changing.

BEA also released results from the 2025 annual update of the NEAs in September, providing revised statistics for GDP, GDP by industry, and gross domestic income (GDI) for the first quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2025. For details, refer to “Information on 2025 Annual Updates to the National, Industry, and State and Local Economic Accounts.” The results article of the annual update is forthcoming in the Survey in October.

Chart 1. Real GDP: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • In the second quarter, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent.2
Chart 2. Real GDP: Contributions to the Percent Change in 2025:Q2

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  • The increase in real GDP primarily reflected a decrease in imports (which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP because they are embedded in other components of GDP) and an increase in consumer spending.3 These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.
  • The decrease in imports primarily reflected a decrease in goods, led by nondurable consumer goods, except food and automotive.
  • The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in both goods and services. The increase in goods was led by motor vehicles (mostly new and used motor vehicles) and “other nondurable goods” (notably, pharmaceutical products).
  • The decrease in investment was led by private inventories, reflecting decreases in manufacturing (notably, chemical manufacturing) and wholesale trade (led by machinery equipment).
  • The decrease in exports reflected a decrease in goods that was partly offset by an increase in services. Within goods, the decrease was led by automotive vehicles, engines, and parts and industrial supplies and materials. Within services, the increase reflected increases in “other business services,” charges for the use of intellectual property, and travel.
Chart 3. Real GDP by Estimate Vintage, 2025:Q2

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Chart 4. Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP, 2025:Q2

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  • In the advance estimate of the second quarter, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent.
  • In the second estimate, real GDP increased 3.3 percent, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point from the advance estimate. The revision primarily reflected upward revisions to investment and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to government spending and an upward revision to imports.
  • In the third estimate, real GDP increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate. The revision reflected an upward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by a downward revision to exports. Imports were revised up, decreasing less than in the previous estimate.
  • Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data. For more details, refer to “GDP Revision Information” on the BEA website.
Chart 5. Real GDI: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • Real GDI increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter.
Chart 6. Real GDP: Contributions to Percent Change by Industry Group, 2025:Q2

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  • From an industry perspective, the increase in real GDP, or real value added, reflected increases of 10.2 percent for private goods-producing industries and 3.5 percent for private services-producing industries; these increases were partly offset by a decrease of 3.2 percent in government.
  • Overall, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real GDP.
Chart 7. Real Gross Output by Industry: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • Real gross output by industry increased 1.2 percent in the second quarter.
  • This reflected increases of 0.6 percent for private goods-producing industries and 1.7 percent for private services-producing industries that were partly offset by a decrease of 0.7 percent for government.
  • Overall, 15 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.4
Chart 8. Personal Income: Change From Preceding Period

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  • Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $349.4 billion in the second quarter.
  • The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal current transfer receipts (mainly Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare).
  • Personal current taxes increased $54.6 billion, disposable personal income increased $294.8 billion, and personal outlays increased $245.9 billion.
  • The personal saving rate was 5.3 percent.
Chart 9. Prices for Gross Domestic Purchases: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter.
  • Within gross domestic purchases, food prices increased 0.8 percent, and prices for energy goods and services decreased 6.0 percent.
  • Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.3 percent.
Chart 10. Prices for PCE: Percent Change From Preceding Period

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  • The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter.
  • PCE prices for goods increased 0.2 percent, reflecting increases in recreational goods and vehicles, furnishings and durable household equipment, and other nondurable goods (mainly recreational items).
  • PCE prices for services increased 3.0 percent, reflecting increases in housing and utilities (mainly housing), health care (led by hospital and nursing home services), and “other services” (led by net foreign travel).
  • Excluding food and energy, the core PCE price index increased 2.6 percent.
Chart 11. Corporate Profits With IVA and CCadj: Change From Preceding Period

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  • Measured in current dollars, profits from current production (corporate profits with the inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and the capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj)) increased $6.8 billion, or 0.2 percent at a quarterly rate, in the second quarter.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $8.2 billion (1.1 percent), profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $13.0 billion (0.5 percent), and rest-of-the-world profits decreased 14.4 billion (3.0 percent).
Chart 12. Corporate Profits With IVA, Change From Preceding Period

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  • Measured in current dollars, industry profits (corporate profits by industry with IVA) increased $0.5 billion, or less than 0.1 percent at a quarterly rate, in the second quarter.
  • Domestic financial profits increased $6.2 billion (0.7 percent), domestic nonfinancial profits increased $8.6 billion (0.3 percent), and rest-of-the-world profits decreased $14.4 billion (3.0 percent).
  1. The release schedule for the second quarter of 2025 includes the advance estimate of GDP on July 30, 2025, the second estimate of GDP and preliminary corporate profits on August 28, 2025, and the third estimate of GDP, along with GDP by industry and revised corporate profits, on September 25, 2025.
  2. Real estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
  3. In this essay, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”
  4. Refer to “What is gross output by industry and how does it differ from gross domestic product (or value added) by industry” for more information.