GDP and the Economy
Advance Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2024
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2024, according to the "advance" estimate of the National Income and Product Accounts (chart 1 and table 1).1 In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
The increase in second-quarter real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (chart 2 and table 1).2
- The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care, housing and utilities, and recreation services. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were motor vehicles and parts, recreational goods and vehicles, furnishings and durable household equipment, and gasoline and other energy goods.
- The increase in health care was led by hospital and nursing home services (notably, hospital services) and outpatient services.
- The increase in housing and utilities was led by housing.
- Within recreation services, the increase was led by membership clubs, sports centers, parks, theaters and museums as well as gambling.
- The increase in motor vehicles and parts was led by new light trucks.
- The increase in recreational goods and vehicles primarily reflected an increase in information processing equipment.
- Increases within furnishings and durable household equipment were widespread and led by glassware, tableware, and household utensils.
- The increase in gasoline and other energy goods reflected an increase in motor vehicle fuels, lubricants, and fluids.
- Within private inventory investment, increases in wholesale trade and retail trade industries were partly offset by a decrease in mining, utilities, and construction industries.
- The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products that were partly offset by a decrease in structures.
- The increase in equipment was led by transportation (notably, aircraft).
- The increase in intellectual property products was led by software (mainly prepackaged software).
- The decrease in structures was led by commercial and health care structures.
- The increase in imports was led by imports of goods (notably, capital goods, except automotive).
Compared to the first quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and an acceleration in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment.
| Line | Series | Share of current-dollar GDP (percent) |
Change from preceding period (percent) |
Contribution to percent change in real GDP (percentage points) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | ||
| 1 | GDP1 | 100.0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| 2 | Personal consumption expenditures | 67.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 2.11 | 2.20 | 0.98 | 1.57 |
| 3 | Goods | 21.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | −2.3 | 2.5 | 1.09 | 0.67 | −0.51 | 0.55 |
| 4 | Durable goods | 7.6 | 6.7 | 3.2 | −4.5 | 4.7 | 0.53 | 0.25 | −0.35 | 0.35 |
| 5 | Nondurable goods | 14.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | −1.1 | 1.4 | 0.56 | 0.41 | −0.15 | 0.20 |
| 6 | Services | 45.8 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.02 | 1.54 | 1.49 | 1.02 |
| 7 | Gross private domestic investment | 18.0 | 10.0 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 8.4 | 1.74 | 0.15 | 0.77 | 1.46 |
| 8 | Fixed investment | 17.6 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 0.46 | 0.61 | 1.19 | 0.64 |
| 9 | Nonresidential | 13.6 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 0.21 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| 10 | Structures | 3.1 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 3.4 | −3.3 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.10 | −0.10 |
| 11 | Equipment | 5.1 | −4.4 | −1.1 | 1.6 | 11.6 | −0.22 | −0.05 | 0.08 | 0.55 |
| 12 | Intellectual property products | 5.5 | 1.8 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 0.10 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| 13 | Residential | 4.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 16.0 | −1.4 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.59 | −0.05 |
| 14 | Change in private inventories | 0.3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 1.27 | −0.47 | −0.42 | 0.82 |
| 15 | Net exports of goods and services | −3.1 | --- | --- | --- | --- | 0.03 | 0.25 | −0.65 | −0.72 |
| 16 | Exports | 10.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| 17 | Goods | 7.2 | 7.7 | 6.2 | −0.5 | 1.7 | 0.55 | 0.45 | −0.04 | 0.12 |
| 18 | Services | 3.7 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| 19 | Imports | 14.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | −0.56 | −0.30 | −0.82 | −0.93 |
| 20 | Goods | 11.4 | 5.9 | 1.3 | 6.5 | 7.7 | −0.64 | −0.14 | −0.71 | −0.84 |
| 21 | Services | 2.6 | −2.8 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.08 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.09 |
| 22 | Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | 17.5 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 0.99 | 0.79 | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| 23 | Federal | 6.5 | 7.1 | 2.4 | −0.2 | 3.9 | 0.45 | 0.15 | −0.02 | 0.25 |
| 24 | National defense | 3.7 | 8.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | 5.2 | 0.30 | 0.02 | −0.03 | 0.19 |
| 25 | Nondefense | 2.8 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| 26 | State and local | 11.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| Addenda: | ||||||||||
| 27 | GDI2 | --- | 1.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 28 | Average of GDP and GDI | --- | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 29 | Final sales of domestic product | --- | 3.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 | Goods | 30.6 | 7.3 | 2.6 | −3.8 | 5.5 | 2.30 | 0.83 | −1.18 | 1.66 |
| 31 | Services | 60.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.77 | 1.27 |
| 32 | Structures | 8.8 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 9.7 | −1.1 | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.82 | −0.09 |
- GDI
- Gross domestic income
- GDP
- Gross domestic product
- The GDP estimates under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
- GDI is deflated by the implicit price deflator for GDP.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) featured measure of inflation for the U.S. economy, the price index for gross domestic purchases (goods and services purchased by U.S. residents), increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter after increasing 3.1 percent in the first quarter (table 2 and chart 3).
Within gross domestic purchases, food prices decreased 0.4 percent in the second quarter after increasing 2.0 percent in the first quarter. Prices for energy goods and services increased 2.5 percent after decreasing 1.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.5 percent after increasing 3.3 percent.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.6 percent in the second quarter after increasing 3.4 percent in the first quarter. The increase in PCE prices reflected an increase in prices for both services and goods.
- Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were housing and utilities (mainly housing), financial services and insurance (mainly banking and other financial services), and health care.
- Within goods, an increase in prices for nondurable goods was partly offset by a decrease in prices for durable goods. The leading contributors to the increase in nondurable goods were “other nondurable goods” (mainly pharmaceutical and other medical products) and clothing and footwear. The leading contributors to the decrease in durable goods were motor vehicles and parts as well as furnishings and durable household equipment.
Excluding food and energy, the “core” PCE price index increased 2.9 percent in the second quarter, following an increase of 3.7 percent in the first quarter.
| Line | Series | Change from preceding period (percent) |
Contribution to percent change in gross domestic purchases prices (percentage points) |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | ||||||
| Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | ||
| 1 | Gross domestic purchases1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.3 |
| 2 | Personal consumption expenditures | 2.6 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.71 | 1.18 | 2.24 | 1.72 |
| 3 | Goods | 0.9 | −1.4 | −0.5 | 0.7 | 0.20 | −0.31 | −0.11 | 0.15 |
| 4 | Durable goods | −4.4 | −3.5 | −0.5 | −2.6 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.19 |
| 5 | Nondurable goods | 3.9 | −0.2 | −0.6 | 2.5 | 0.55 | −0.03 | −0.08 | 0.34 |
| 6 | Services | 3.5 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.51 | 1.48 | 2.35 | 1.57 |
| 7 | Gross private domestic investment | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| 8 | Fixed investment | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.30 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| 9 | Nonresidential | 0.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| 10 | Structures | −2.3 | 2.1 | −0.4 | 0.2 | −0.07 | 0.06 | −0.01 | 0.01 |
| 11 | Equipment | 2.3 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| 12 | Intellectual property products | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| 13 | Residential | 4.8 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| 14 | Change in private inventories | --- | --- | --- | --- | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 |
| 15 | Government consumption expenditures and gross investment | 5.1 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.84 | 0.32 | 0.66 | 0.31 |
| 16 | Federal | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| 17 | National defense | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| 18 | Nondefense | 3.7 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| 19 | State and local | 5.7 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.59 | 0.07 | 0.41 | 0.19 |
| Addenda: | |||||||||
| Gross domestic purchases: | |||||||||
| 20 | Food | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.0 | −0.4 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.10 | −0.02 |
| 21 | Energy goods and services | 16.1 | −2.9 | −1.3 | 2.5 | 0.42 | −0.08 | −0.03 | 0.07 |
| 22 | Excluding food and energy | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 2.34 | 1.90 | 3.00 | 2.28 |
| Personal consumption expenditures: | |||||||||
| 23 | Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.1 | −0.4 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 24 | Energy goods and services | 16.2 | −3.2 | −1.3 | 2.4 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 25 | Excluding food and energy | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 2.9 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 26 | Gross domestic product | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.3 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 27 | Exports of goods and services | 4.0 | −2.2 | 2.8 | 2.3 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 28 | Imports of goods and services | 0.3 | 0.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
- The estimated prices for gross domestic purchases under the contribution columns are also percent changes.
Note. Most percent changes are from National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) table 1.6.7; percent changes for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for food and energy goods and services and for PCE excluding food and energy are from NIPA table 2.3.7. Contributions are from NIPA table 1.6.8. Gross domestic product, export, and import prices are from NIPA table 1.1.7.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Measured in current dollars, personal income increased $237.6 billion in the second quarter, compared to an increase of $396.8 billion in the first quarter (table 3). The increase in the second quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and personal current transfer receipts.
Personal current taxes increased $51.3 billion in the second quarter after increasing $156.6 billion in the first quarter.
Current-dollar disposable personal income (DPI) increased $186.3 billion in the second quarter after increasing $240.2 billion in the first quarter. Personal outlays increased $243.1 billion after increasing $222.6 billion in the first quarter.
Real DPI (chart 4) increased 1.0 percent in the second quarter after increasing 1.3 percent in the first quarter. Current-dollar DPI, which is deflated by the implicit price deflator for consumer spending, increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter after increasing 4.8 percent in the first quarter.
The personal saving rate (chart 5)—personal saving as a percentage of DPI—was 3.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with 3.8 percent in the first quarter.
| Line | Series | Level | Change from preceding period | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | |||||
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | ||
| 1 | Personal income | 23,644.3 | 23,881.9 | 217.7 | 161.8 | 396.8 | 237.6 |
| 2 | Compensation of employees | 14,644.9 | 14,827.2 | 214.6 | 79.4 | 196.8 | 182.3 |
| 3 | Wages and salaries | 12,138.9 | 12,295.9 | 184.2 | 58.5 | 162.9 | 156.9 |
| 4 | Private industries | 10,313.4 | 10,441.3 | 141.8 | 24.5 | 124.8 | 127.9 |
| 5 | Goods-producing industries | 1,904.4 | 1,939.5 | 30.0 | 11.5 | 25.5 | 35.1 |
| 6 | Manufacturing | 1,114.6 | 1,136.9 | 20.8 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 22.3 |
| 7 | Services-producing industries | 8,409.0 | 8,501.8 | 111.8 | 12.9 | 99.3 | 92.8 |
| 8 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 1,845.3 | 1,858.5 | 28.9 | −0.1 | 18.0 | 13.3 |
| 9 | Other services-producing industries | 6,563.8 | 6,643.3 | 83.0 | 13.1 | 81.3 | 79.5 |
| 10 | Government | 1,825.5 | 1,854.6 | 42.4 | 34.1 | 38.1 | 29.1 |
| 11 | Supplements to wages and salaries | 2,506.0 | 2,531.4 | 30.4 | 20.9 | 33.9 | 25.4 |
| 12 | Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj | 1,890.4 | 1,894.3 | 35.5 | 23.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 |
| 13 | Farm | 35.6 | 27.1 | −8.3 | −11.9 | −2.4 | −8.5 |
| 14 | Nonfarm | 1,854.8 | 1,867.2 | 43.7 | 35.0 | 10.2 | 12.3 |
| 15 | Rental income of persons with CCAdj | 1,023.9 | 1,026.3 | 13.3 | 13.7 | 35.8 | 2.3 |
| 16 | Personal income receipts on assets | 3,699.5 | 3,700.4 | 3.9 | 60.8 | 32.2 | 1.0 |
| 17 | Personal interest income | 1,814.2 | 1,817.6 | 21.6 | 39.2 | −1.4 | 3.4 |
| 18 | Personal dividend income | 1,885.3 | 1,882.8 | −17.6 | 21.6 | 33.5 | −2.4 |
| 19 | Personal current transfer receipts | 4,248.8 | 4,318.5 | −26.5 | −6.9 | 162.0 | 69.7 |
| 20 | Government social benefits to persons | 4,135.0 | 4,205.2 | −29.5 | −8.5 | 155.7 | 70.3 |
| 21 | Social security | 1,426.4 | 1,439.1 | 7.5 | 13.0 | 52.2 | 12.6 |
| 22 | Medicare | 965.3 | 983.2 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 13.9 | 17.9 |
| 23 | Medicaid | 916.9 | 942.7 | −30.8 | −12.3 | 48.6 | 25.9 |
| 24 | Unemployment insurance | 22.7 | 22.8 | −1.3 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 25 | Veterans' benefits | 174.7 | 178.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3.8 |
| 26 | Other | 629.0 | 639.0 | −9.6 | −16.7 | 39.9 | 10.0 |
| 27 | Other current transfer receipts, from business (net) | 113.8 | 113.3 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 6.3 | −0.6 |
| 28 | Less: Contributions for government social insurance | 1,863.2 | 1,884.8 | 23.2 | 8.3 | 37.8 | 21.6 |
| 29 | Less: Personal current taxes | 2,949.1 | 3,000.4 | 61.5 | 27.1 | 156.6 | 51.3 |
| 30 | Equals: Disposable personal income | 20,695.2 | 20,881.5 | 156.2 | 134.7 | 240.2 | 186.3 |
| 31 | Less: Personal outlays | 19,917.9 | 20,161.0 | 319.9 | 238.8 | 222.6 | 243.1 |
| 32 | Personal consumption expenditures | 19,142.5 | 19,377.7 | 260.5 | 235.0 | 228.1 | 235.2 |
| 33 | Personal interest payments1 | 523.5 | 529.8 | 55.9 | 1.1 | −8.2 | 6.3 |
| 34 | Personal current transfer payments | 251.8 | 253.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 35 | Equals: Personal saving | 777.3 | 720.5 | −163.7 | −104.1 | 17.6 | −56.9 |
| 36 | Personal saving as a percentage of DPI | 3.8 | 3.5 | --- | --- | --- | --- |
- CCAdj
- Capital consumption adjustment
- DPI
- Disposable personal income
- IVA
- Inventory valuation adjustment
- Consists of nonmortgage interest paid by households. Note that mortgage interest paid by households is an expense item in the calculation of rental income of persons.
- “Real” estimates are in chained (2017) dollars, and price indexes are chain-type measures. Each GDP estimate for a quarter (advance, second, and third) incorporates increasingly comprehensive and improved source data; for more information, see “The Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components” in the January 2018 Survey of Current Business. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, which reflect a rate of activity for a quarter as if it were maintained for a year.
- In this article, “consumer spending” refers to “personal consumption expenditures,” “inventory investment” refers to “change in private inventories,” and “government spending” refers to “government consumption expenditures and gross investment.”
