Improved Estimates of the National Economic Accounts

Results of the 2023 Comprehensive Update

By Lisa S. Mataloni, Dorian L. Turner, and Stephanie H. McCulla  |  November 9, 2023

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On September 28, 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the initial results of the 16th comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts, which include the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and the Industry Economic Accounts (IEAs). The update marks the culmination of a multi-year effort to harmonize the production and publication of the NIPAs, the IEAs, and the Regional Economic Accounts (REAs).¹

Many incremental and important improvements were prerequisites to the harmonization, including the expansion and acceleration of the gross domestic product (GDP) by industry accounts, the acceleration of the annual Input-Output (I-O) Accounts, and the integration of the annual I-O Accounts and the GDP by industry accounts. Underlying these steps was close collaboration with the U.S. Census Bureau (Census) to provide additional source data and improve the quality and timeliness of existing data. The first milestone of the harmonization was the simultaneous release of quarterly statistics for national, industry, and state GDP in September 2020. This was followed by the accelerated release of the annual updates of industry and state GDP statistics in September 2021, and the simultaneous release of the annual updates of national, industry, and state GDP statistics in September 2022. With this year's simultaneous release of the comprehensive updates, BEA provides users with benchmark estimates that are consistent across the accounts and based on the best available source data and methods.²

Comprehensive updates provide an opportunity to introduce new and improved methodologies; incorporate newly available and revised source data; update definitions and classifications to portray the evolving U.S. economy more accurately and provide consistency for international comparisons; and update presentations, where necessary, or provide additional data or perspectives for users.

A key feature of comprehensive updates is benchmarking GDP and its components to data from the most recently available Census Bureau quinquennial Economic Census. This year's update benchmarked the accounts to the 2017 Economic Census. Benchmarked 2017 I-O statistics, including new 2017 supply and use tables (SUTs), provide a detailed picture of the economy, showing relationships among approximately 402 industries and commodities that serve as the statistical foundation for other BEA estimates. More specifically, the levels and commodity distributions of final-use categories are set as part of a reconciliation process between production-based estimates from the SUT framework and expenditure-based estimates from the NIPAs.

This article summarizes the impacts of the update on the NIPA and IEA estimates with a focus on the most recent 5 years. Refer to “Information on 2023 Comprehensive Updates to the National, Industry, and State Economic Accounts” for additional background materials and results. (In particular, the “Summary of Results” tables include detail on quarterly NIPA revisions through 2022 and revisions to selected time spans.)

Current-dollar measures of GDP and related components were revised from the first quarter of 2013 through the first quarter of 2023. Gross domestic income (GDI) and select income components were revised from the first quarter of 1979 through the first quarter of 2023. Annual GDP by industry statistics for 2017–2022 were updated on September 28 and are summarized in this article; the remaining annual GDP by industry statistics as well as quarterly GDP by industry statistics will be available this fall.³ Current-dollar GDP by industry statistics will be revised from the first quarter of 2005 through the first quarter of 2023, although revisions prior to the first quarter of 2013 will offset across industries within each period.

Output and price measures now use 2017 as the reference year; previously, the reference year was 2012. Quantity and price indexes are expressed as 2017 equal to 100. Updating the reference year did not affect the percent changes in the price or quantity indexes (or in the chained-dollar estimates), because these changes are measured from chain-type indexes.⁴ However, there are revisions to the percent changes in NIPA aggregates resulting from the incorporation of newly available and revised source data and changes in methodologies.

The classification of measures now follows the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Overall, changes stemming from the use of the 2017 NAICS were small. One notable change is the reclassification of equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) from the financial industry to the real estate industry as discussed below.⁵

The updated estimates reflect the incorporation of newly available and revised source data—the primary driver of this year's revisions—as well as the adoption of improved estimating methods and, for quarterly and monthly measures, the incorporation of updated seasonal adjustment factors.

Major Source Data Incorporated

The comprehensive update incorporated a wide array of new and revised source data. In addition to the 2017 Economic Census, the revised estimates also reflect the incorporation of newly available and revised source data for 2018–2022 that are regularly incorporated in annual updates but became available after the last update in September 2022. Some of the most significant data sources are shown in table 1. These data include Census surveys; Office of Management and Budget federal government budget data; BEA data from the International Transactions Accounts; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data; Internal Revenue Service (IRS) data; and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) farm statistics.

Notable source data updates and their impacts include the following:

• New Census Service Annual Survey (SAS) data for 2021 and revised SAS data for 2018 through 2020 replaced previously incorporated SAS data. SAS data impacted estimates of consumer spending for services and estimates of private fixed investment in intellectual property products as well as gross output for private services-producing industries.
• Revised IRS tabulations of tax returns for corporations and for sole proprietorships for 2020 and new IRS tabulations of tax returns data for 2021 for corporations, sole proprietorships, and partnerships affected estimates of corporate profits, proprietors' income, and net interest.
• New Census Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) data for 2021 replaced data from the Monthly Survey of Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) data. These data, as well as revised ASM data for 2020 and revised monthly M3 shipments and inventories data for 2018–2022, impacted estimates of private investment in equipment and inventories, as well as gross output for manufacturing industries.
• New Census Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS) data for 2021 replaced Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey data; these data and revised ARTS data for 2018–2020 impacted estimates of consumer spending for goods, private inventory investment, and gross output for the retail trade industry.
• Revised BLS QCEW data for 2018–2022 impacted estimates of private and government compensation.
• Revised USDA farm statistics for 2018–2022 impacted estimates of farm output, private inventory investment, and proprietors' income.
• Revised BEA International Transactions Accounts data for 2017–2022 impacted estimates of exports and imports of goods and services and income flows with the rest of the world.
• Revised Census Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances data for fiscal years 2018–2020 and newly available data for 2021 impacted estimates of state and local government spending.

Additional information on the NIPA components affected by the incorporation of these data is provided in the table “NIPA Revisions: Components Detail and Major Source Data and Conceptual Changes Incorporated, 2017–2022.”

Changes in Methodology

BEA implemented several changes in methodologies and classifications and introduced other improvements, including those listed below; for additional detail, see the June Survey of Current Business article “Preview of the 2023 Comprehensive Update of the National Economic Accounts.”

Improved classification and measures of real estate investment trusts (REITs). Beginning with 2002, dividends paid to shareholders by REITs were adjusted to exclude capital gains, based on IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) data, in keeping with System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA 2008) recommendations and the treatment of capital gains elsewhere in the NIPAs.⁶

Additionally, equity REITs are now reclassified from the funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles industry to the real estate industry, while mortgage REITs remain classified as funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles. This change is in accordance with the latest NAICS classifications, which recognize the different production processes of these different types of REITs.⁷

Improved measures of regulated investment companies (RICs). RICs are financial intermediaries that include mutual funds, money market mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and closed-end funds. They are, in effect, pass-through institutions and their profits should reflect this. The previous NIPA treatment classified RIC output as imputed interest paid to RIC shareholders, with a corresponding decrease in RIC profits, resulting in consistently negative profits and undistributed profits, or savings.

Because RICs do not explicitly charge for their services, their gross output is measured as the sum of their expenses in the NIPAs. Under the new treatment, the output of RICs is not recorded as imputed interest paid but instead as an imputed charge to shareholders. Beginning with 1979, BEA's measures of RIC receipts and payments of monetary interest and dividends are now based on SOI data without adjusting these measures to deduct RIC expenses, which is more consistent with the NIPA treatment of defined contribution pension plans. As a result, imputed interest paid equals imputed interest received, and the net measure is zero. Likewise, monetary interest and monetary dividends are equal to receipts, and the net measure is zero.⁸

New measures of monetary interest paid by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Measures of the FRB's payments of monetary interest are now recorded in the NIPAs beginning with 2008, the year it began paying interest on reserves and term deposits. The measure is based on data on interest expenses from the FRB's combined financial statements, and it is recorded on line 4 in NIPA table 7.17, “Relation of Monetary Interest Paid and Received in the National Income and Product Accounts to Corresponding Measures as Published by the Internal Revenue Service.”

Additionally, beginning with 2013, BEA improved its measures of the intermediation services provided by Federal Reserve banks, for which there is no explicit charge, by using an input-cost approach. Specifically, the output of Federal Reserve banks is now measured as the sum of its total operating expenses, also based on data from the FRB's combined financial statements.

Improved measures of the use by industries of financial intermediation services furnished without payment. BEA improved its allocation of industries' intermediate use of implicit financial intermediation services beginning with 1997 and including the 2017 benchmark SUTs, using data from the Census Quarterly Financial Report (QFR) and the IRS SOI. This change further harmonizes the IEAs with the NIPAs, which already use QFR data for by-industry measures of these services.

Improved measures of housing services. BEA improved the measures of housing services by using detailed American Community Survey (ACS) data to more precisely distinguish between rental value and utility costs, building on the use of ACS microdata introduced in the 2021 annual update.⁹ Beginning with 2013, by-unit ACS data on utility costs are used to derive estimates of rent excluding utilities for rental housing that includes utilities and for owner-occupied housing units; these estimates form the basis of the estimates PCE for housing. The new approach excludes only the utilities that are used for any given unit.

Previously, ACS data for units with separate charges for rent and utilities were used to derive estimates of utility costs as a share of the total cost. The share was applied to the total housing costs that include utilities to derive rental charges excluding utilities. The shares were not adjusted to reflect the specific utilities that were included in the total for individual units.

Improved measures of investment in own-account software. In response to research on the changing landscape of software-related employment across industries, beginning with 2013, investment in own-account software now reflects a more expansive list of occupations that produce software. Additionally, research on measuring the U.S. data economy using online job postings has led to improved measures to estimate new occupation-based time-use factors for own-account software development.¹⁰

Improved price measures. BEA introduced new price measures for cloud computing services and investment in wind and solar energy structures. To measure prices for cloud computing services more accurately, BEA now uses a new composite price index to deflate cloud computing output beginning with the first quarter of 2016. The new composite price indicators equally weight BLS price data for NAICS industry 5182—data processing, hosting, and related services—and quality-adjusted cloud computing price data from 451 Research (a division of S&P Global Market Intelligence). For investment in wind and solar energy structures, BEA introduced a new price index based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's average annual costs of construction for wind and solar energy generators. The previously used Handy Whitman's electric power and building construction cost indexes did not include alternative energy structures.

Improved measures of intermediate expenses. BEA improved its measures of intermediate expenses for meals and entertainment to more accurately reflect changes implemented with the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the 2021 Consolidated Appropriations Act and to recognize additional entertainment expenses, such as performing arts, as intermediate expenses.

Improved measures of National Flood Insurance Program services. Beginning with 2004, BEA modified the method for measuring the services of the National Flood Insurance Program so that expected losses include only losses that are covered directly by premium collections.

Improved measures of brokers' commissions. Beginning with 2013, BEA improved its estimates of residential and nonresidential brokers' commissions by using Economic Census data on total commissions and fees from real estate agents and brokers to allocate the total domestic supply of dealers' commissions to residential and nonresidential private fixed investment categories. Additionally, BEA improved its estimates of brokers' commissions on the sale of existing homes by bringing the assumed commission rate in line with industry standards and allowing the rate to vary as real estate market conditions change.

In general, the picture of the economy shown by the updated estimates is similar to the picture previously published (table 2). Over the recent period, from 2017 to 2022, the average annual growth rate is 2.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than in previously published estimates (chart 1).

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GDP and Expenditure Components

Revisions to the percent change in real GDP over the recent period are presented in table 3A, and the contributions to those revisions are presented in table 3B. Details on revisions and contributions to revisions for each expenditure component of real GDP are presented in appendix A (tables A1–A12).

The percent change in real GDP was revised up for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, and was revised down for 2021 and 2022 (chart 2).

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• For 2017, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.3 percentage point, from 2.2 percent to 2.5 percent. The revision primarily reflects upward revisions to PCE for both services and goods, as well as nonresidential fixed investment. These upward revisions were partly offset by an upward revision to imports, which is a subtraction in the calculation of GDP.
• For 2018, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point, from 2.9 percent to 3.0 percent. The revision primarily reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and to federal government spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to PCE and to private inventory investment. Imports were revised down.
• For 2019, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.2 percentage point, from 2.3 percent to 2.5 percent, primarily reflecting upward revisions to state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to imports.
• For 2020, the percent change in real GDP was revised up 0.6 percentage point, from a decrease of 2.8 percent to a decrease of 2.2 percent, primarily reflecting upward revisions to PCE services, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment.
• For 2021, the percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point, from 5.9 percent to 5.8 percent, primarily reflecting downward revisions to state and local government spending, federal government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upward revision to PCE.
• For 2022, the percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point, from 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent, primarily reflecting downward revisions to PCE, private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports were revised up.

Prices

Revisions to BEA's price measures over the recent period, such as gross domestic purchases, GDP, and PCE, were small and reflect revised and newly available source data, improved price measures as described earlier, and, for the most recent year (2022), the regular incorporation of annual weights. Over the recent period, from 2017 to 2022, the average annual growth rate in prices for gross domestic purchases—a measure of the prices paid by consumers, businesses, and governments—is 3.2 percent, the same as previously published (chart 1). The revisions to the percent change in prices and price contributions are presented in tables 4A and 4B, respectively.

• The percent change in the gross domestic purchases price index was revised down for 2017 and 2018 and was unrevised for 2019–2022.
• The percent change in GDP price index was revised down for 2017–2019, unrevised for 2020, and revised up for 2021 and 2022.
• The percent change in PCE price index was revised down for 2017–2019, unrevised for 2020, and revised up for 2021 and 2022.

Income and Saving

Revisions to the components of national income and GDI over the recent period are presented in tables 5 and 6 and chart 3.

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• The downward revisions to national income for 2017–2019 primarily reflect downward revisions to nonfarm proprietors' income and to net interest and miscellaneous payments that were partly offset by upward revisions to corporate profits. The revisions to nonfarm proprietors' income reflect revised and newly available IRS audit data; the revisions to corporate profits and net interest primarily reflect the new treatment of RICs.
• The downward revision to national income for 2020 primarily reflects downward revisions to net interest and miscellaneous receipts and nonfarm proprietors' income that were partly offset by upward revisions to corporate profits and rental income of persons. The revisions to net interest and corporate profits primarily reflect the new treatment of RICs. The revision to nonfarm proprietors' income reflects revised and newly available IRS audit data. The revision to rental income of persons is primarily due to the incorporation of detailed housing statistics from the ACS.
• The upward revision to national income for 2021 primarily reflects upward revisions to corporate profits and to rental income of persons that were partly offset by a downward revision to net interest and miscellaneous receipts. The revisions to corporate profits and net interest primarily reflect newly available SOI data and the new treatment of RICs. The revision to rental income of persons is primarily due to the incorporation of detailed housing statistics from the ACS.
• The upward revision to national income for 2022 primarily reflects upward revisions to corporate profits and rental income of persons that were partly offset by downward revisions to compensation, net interest and miscellaneous receipts, and nonfarm proprietors' income. The revision to corporate profits reflects revised Census QFR data as well as newly available compilations of annual corporate financial statements from publicly available companies. The revision to rental income of persons is primarily due to the incorporation of detailed housing statistics from the ACS. The revision to compensation primarily reflects revised QCEW data, new Census data on wages paid to tipped employees, and new BLS data on wages not covered by the QCEW program. The revision to net interest and miscellaneous receipts primarily reflects newly available SOI data for 2021 and revised indicator data. The revision to nonfarm proprietors' income reflects new IRS tax data and updated business meals and entertainment expense data from BEA.

The update had a notable impact on the statistical discrepancy (chart 4 and table 6). In theory, GDI should equal GDP, but in practice, they differ because their components are estimated using largely independent source data. For 2021, the level of the discrepancy (measured as GDP minus GDI) was revised from −$128.9 billion to −$5.5 billion. For 2022, the discrepancy was revised from −$162.6 billion to −$52.3 billion. For both years, the upward revision to current-dollar GDP was larger than the upward revision to current-dollar GDI. With the revision, the statistical discrepancy as a percent of GDP is 0.3 percent or less for 2017 forward; the average without regard to sign over the last 20 years is 0.5 percent.

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Measures of personal income were impacted by newly available and revised source data, as well as improved methodologies (table 7):

• For 2017, 2018, and 2020 downward revisions to personal income were led by downward revisions to personal interest income (reflecting the new treatment of RICs), nonfarm proprietors' income (reflecting revised and newly available IRS audit data), and personal dividend income (reflecting the new treatment of REITs).
• For 2019, personal income was revised down, primarily reflecting downward revisions to personal dividend income, personal interest income, and nonfarm proprietors' income. The revision to personal dividend income primarily reflects the new treatment of REITs; the revision to personal interest income reflects the new treatment of RICs; and the revision to nonfarm proprietors' income reflects revised and newly available IRS audit data.
• For 2021, the upward revision to personal income primarily reflects upward revisions to personal dividend income and rental income of persons that were partly offset by a downward revision to personal interest income. The revision to personal dividend income reflects newly available SOI data for 2021 that were partly offset by the new treatment of REITs, the revision to rental income of persons is primarily due to the incorporation of detailed housing statistics from the ACS, and the revision to personal interest income reflects the new treatment of RICs.
• For 2022, the upward revision to personal income primarily reflects upward revisions to personal dividend income (primarily reflecting newly available SOI data for 2021 and revised indicator data that were partly offset by the new treatment for REITs), rental income of persons (primarily reflecting improved measures of housing), and personal current transfer receipts (mainly reflecting government social benefits to persons based on new and revised Office of Management and Budget fiscal year budget data). These revisions were partly offset by downward revisions to compensation (both to private wages and salaries reflecting revised QCEW data and to supplements based on new U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Medical Expenditures Panel Survey data for private employers), personal interest income (reflecting the new treatment of RICs), and nonfarm proprietors' income (reflecting newly available SOI data for 2021 and revised indicator data).

The personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was revised down from 7.3 percent to 5.8 percent for 2017, revised down from 7.6 percent to 6.4 percent for 2018, revised down from 8.8 percent to 7.4 percent for 2019, revised down from 17.0 percent to 15.4 percent for 2020, revised down from 12.0 percent to 11.4 percent for 2021, and revised down from 3.5 percent to 3.3 percent for 2022.

The update had a notable impact on the measures of national saving by sector, presented in table 8. For most years for 1979 to 2022, personal saving was revised down and corporate saving was revised up, reflecting the new treatment of RICs output. For 2002 forward, downward revisions to personal saving and upward revisions to corporate saving reflect the new treatment of REITs.

The revisions to the quarterly (and monthly) NIPA estimates reflect updates to the annual estimates, the incorporation of new and revised quarterly and monthly source data (including updated seasonal factors), and the introduction of changes in methodology.

GDP and GDI

Chart 5 shows revised and previously published percent changes for real GDP from the first quarter of 2017 through the first quarter of 2023; the chart excludes 2020 because the magnitude of the pandemic-related changes in GDP in that year obscures the changes in other years. With the updated estimates, the overall pattern of economic growth over this period remains unchanged. In 2020, real GDP decreased 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (revised down 0.7 percentage point), decreased 28.0 percent in the second quarter (revised up 1.9 percentage points), increased 34.8 percent in the third quarter (revised down 0.5 percentage point) and increased 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter (revised up 0.3 percentage point).

Major sources of revisions to GDP include updated estimates of consumer spending (PCE), private inventory investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending. Revisions to PCE reflect updated Census data from the Quarterly Services Survey, benchmarked to newly available 2021 SAS data, and the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, benchmarked to newly available 2021 ARTS data. Revisions to private inventory investment reflect revised Census data on inventory book values (benchmarked to the 2021 ASM). Revisions to state and local government spending reflect new and revised data from the Census Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances, and revisions to federal government spending reflect new and revised Office of Management and Budget fiscal year budget data.

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Over the period from the fourth quarter of 2017 through the first quarter of 2023, the average annual growth rate in real GDP is 2.0 percent, the same as previously published (chart 6). The average annual growth rate in real GDI over the period is 1.9 percent, revised up 0.3 percentage point from the previously published estimates.

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Prices

With the update, revisions to quarterly NIPA price measures were small. From the fourth quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2023, the average annual rate of change in the price index for gross domestic purchases is 3.4 percent, the same as previously published (chart 6). Quarterly revisions for recent quarters primarily reflect updated BLS consumer price indexes as well as BEA's improved price measures.

Quarterly changes to the “core” PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, were little changed from the previously published estimates (chart 7). From the fourth quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2023, the average annual rate of change in the price index for PCE excluding food and energy is 3.1 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

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Business Cycles

In general, the update had little effect on business cycles (chart 8 and table 9). The average annual rate of change in real GDP for the expansion from the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019 was revised up from 2.3 percent to 2.4 percent. For the contraction from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020 (during the onset of the COVID–19 pandemic), the change was revised up from a decrease of 18.2 percent to a decrease of 17.5 percent. For the expansion from the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2023, growth is revised down from 5.8 percent to 5.6 percent.

Growth in real GDP since the fourth quarter of 2019 (the last quarter before the onset of the COVID–19 pandemic) through the first quarter of 2023 is 5.5 percent (not annual rate), a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point.

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GDP by industry, or value added, is a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP. As with the NIPA estimates of GDP, GDP by industry is little changed from the previously published estimates.

Revisions to annual percent changes in real GDP by industry from 2018 to 2022 are discussed below and presented in table 10 and chart 9. Revisions to industry contributions to the percent change in real GDP are presented in table 11. The major source data underlying the GDP by industry estimates are presented in appendix C (tables C1–C3).

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Revisions

The percent change in real GDP by industry was revised up for 2018, 2019, and 2020, and was revised down for 2021 and 2022 (table 10).

For 2018, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point, from 2.9 percent to 3.0 percent. Upward revisions to private goods-producing industries and government were partly offset by a downward revision to private services-producing industries. The direction of change was unrevised for all 22 major industry groups.

• The main driver of the upward revision to private goods-producing industries was nondurable goods manufacturing, which was revised up 2.3 percentage points, from 3.5 percent to 5.8 percent. This mainly reflects an upward revision to chemical products.
• The leading contributors to the downward revision to private services-producing industries were the finance and insurance and information industries. Finance and insurance was revised down 2.3 percentage points, from a decrease of 0.1 percent to a decrease of 2.4 percent, mainly reflecting downward revisions to insurance carriers and related activities as well as funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles. Information was revised down 2.5 percentage points, from 8.0 percent to 5.5 percent, reflecting downward revisions to publishing, except internet (including software) as well as data processing, internet publishing, and other information services.

For 2019, the increase in real GDP was revised up 0.2 percentage point, from 2.3 percent to 2.5 percent. Upward revisions to private services-producing industries and to government were partly offset by a downward revision to private goods-producing industries. The direction of change was unrevised for 20 of 22 major industry groups.

• The leading contributor to the upward revision to private services-producing industries was information, which was revised up 4.5 percentage points, from 5.9 percent to 10.4 percent. This was mainly driven by upward revisions to data processing, internet publishing, and other information services as well as broadcasting and telecommunications.
• The main driver of the downward revision to private goods-producing industries was nondurable goods manufacturing, which was revised down 3.0 percentage points, from an increase of 2.7 percent to a decrease of 0.3 percent. This mainly reflects downward revisions to chemical products as well as food and beverage and tobacco products.

For 2020, the percent change in real GDP was revised up 0.6 percentage point, from a decrease of 2.8 percent to a decrease of 2.2 percent. Upward revisions to private services-producing industries and private goods-producing industries were partly offset by a downward revision to government. The direction of change was unrevised for 19 of 22 major industry groups.

• The main driver of the upward revision to private services-producing industries was real estate and rental and leasing, which was revised up 2.6 percentage points, from a decrease of 1.8 percent to an increase of 0.8 percent. This was driven by upward revisions to rental and leasing services and lessors of intangible assets; other real estate; and housing.
• The primary driver of the upward revision to private goods-producing industries was nondurable goods manufacturing, which was revised up 1.8 percentage points, from a decrease of 4.5 percent to a decrease of 2.7 percent. This was mainly driven by an upward revision to chemical products.
• The leading contributor to the downward revision to government was state and local government, which was revised down 1.6 percentage points, from a decrease of 1.9 percent to a decrease of 3.5 percent.

For 2021, the increase in real GDP was revised down 0.1 percentage point, from 5.9 percent to 5.8 percent. A downward revision to private services-producing industries was partly offset by upward revisions to private goods-producing industries and to government. The direction of change was unrevised for 20 of 22 major industry groups.

• The leading contributors to the downward revision to private services-producing industries were wholesale trade and finance and insurance. Wholesale trade was revised down 6.1 percentage points, from an increase of 5.5 percent to a decrease of 0.6 percent. Finance and insurance was revised down 2.4 percentage points, from 7.2 percent to 4.8 percent, mainly reflecting a downward revision to Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities.
• The main driver of the upward revision to private goods-producing industries was agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, which was revised up 14.3 percentage points, from a decrease of 8.5 percent to an increase of 5.8 percent. This reflected an upward revision to farms.

For 2022, the increase in real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point, from 2.1 percent to 1.9 percent. A downward revision to private services-producing industries was partly offset by upward revisions to private goods-producing industries and to government. The direction of change was unrevised for 19 of 22 major industry groups.

• The drivers of the downward revision to private services-producing industries were wholesale trade and finance and insurance. Wholesale trade was revised down 4.2 percentage points, from an increase of 0.3 percent to a decrease of 3.9 percent. Finance and insurance was revised down 2.1 percentage points, from an increase of 0.5 percent to a decrease of 1.6 percent, mainly reflecting a downward revision to Federal Reserve banks, credit intermediation, and related activities.
• The leading contributor to the upward revision to private goods-producing industries was construction, which was revised up 3.6 percentage points, from a decrease of 10.4 percent to a decrease of 6.8 percent.

For 2017 to 2022, the average annual change in real GDP was revised up 0.1 percentage point, from 2.0 to 2.1 percent (chart 10). Private goods-producing industries and private services-producing industries increased more than previously estimated over the period, while government was unchanged. The direction of change over the period was unrevised for 20 of 22 major industry groups (chart 11). The updated estimates show an increase over the period, rather than a decrease, for utilities (from a decrease of 0.5 percent to an increase of 0.3 percent), and a decrease rather than an increase for wholesale trade (from an increase of 1.3 percent to a decrease of 0.5 percent). The largest upward revisions over the period were to agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting; transportation and warehousing; construction; and real estate and rental and leasing. The largest downward revisions were to wholesale trade and finance and insurance.

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Gross Output

Gross output is principally a measure of an industry's sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs). The percent change in real gross output was revised up 0.1 percentage point to 2.9 percent for 2018; unrevised at 1.9 percent for 2019; revised up 0.3 percentage point to a decrease of 3.3 percent for 2020; revised up 0.3 percentage point to 6.5 percent for 2021; and revised down 0.5 percentage point to 2.3 percent for 2022 (table 12).